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Will she, won't she? It's decision time for Hillary
Guardian ^ | 11/18/03 | Gary Younge

Posted on 11/17/2003 8:54:15 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection

In an episode of The Sopranos, Carmela Soprano and two friends are lamenting their men's unfaithful ways over lunch when the conversation leads to Hillary Clinton.

"I can't stand that woman," says one.

"I don't know. Maybe we could all take a page from her book," responds another.

"What, to be humiliated in public, and then walk around smiling all the time? That is so false."

"All I know is she stuck by him and put up with the shit and in the end, what did she do? She set up her own little thing."

"She took all that negative shit he gave her, and spun it into gold. You got to give her credit."

"She is a role model for all of us," the third concludes.

The former first lady and current New York senator, Hillary Clinton, 56, is as popular as she is divisive. Asked to pick out words that best describe her, members of the public chose "intelligent" and "smart". The third word, pollsters at the Pew Research Centre said, is a pejorative term that "rhymes with rich".

With nine candidates standing for the Democratic presidential nomination, polls continue to show Ms Clinton as the favourite. The trouble is she is not one of the nine. But despite her insistence that she is not running, many people believe she could yet throw her hat in the ring. Friday marks the deadline for entering the Democratic primaries; this week is her last chance to change her mind.

The political logic behind her refusal is sound. While President George Bush's approval ratings are falling fast, he remains the favourite for 2004. He is the incumbent, he has raised an unprecedented amount of money and has wrapped his presidency in the flag. No clear frontrunner has emerged from the current field of Democratic contenders.

Moreover, for Ms Clinton to abandon her six-year Senate term would make her look like a dilettante carpetbagger.

But she has not ruled out ever running for the White House. Keeping her powder dry until 2008, when Mr Bush would have to stand down, would give her a better shot and her entry into elected politics would look less like a smash-and-grab raid on the presidency. Although five of the 11 post-second world war presidents were over 60 when they took the oath, the common view remains that she would be too old at 65 in 2012.

There is little doubt that if Ms Clinton were to stand (this year or any year) she would act as a polarising figure. A Quinnipiac University Institute poll, released last month, showed that even though she is not running, 43% of Democratic voters support her - her closest adversary was General Wesley Clark with 10%. Meanwhile, an ABC news poll last summer found that 71% of conservative Republicans "felt strongly" about their "unfavourable" feelings towards her.

"Just as Hillary-haters say she is the archetype of the kind of woman they don't like, so for those who love her she represents the archetype of the kind of woman they find inspiring and exemplary," says Michael Tomasky, executive editor of American Prospect and author of Hillary's Turn: Inside her Improbable Victorious Senate Campaign.

Even her professed decision not to stand is polarising - prompting elaborate conspiracy theories among Republicans. Asked why the polling institute keeps putting her name to the public when it would not appear on the ballot, Maurice Carroll, director of Quinnipiac, says: "You have to keep asking it, because she is still a big factor."

When, not if

Her decision to accept the role of MC at last Saturday's Democratic party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa - a key event in a state where the candidates rally the faithful - is a case in point. "She would not come to MC this dinner if there was a ghost of a chance that she was going to run," the state party chairman, Gordon Fischer, told the Washington Post before the event.

To others her appearance in the state at this time is evidence that there is still a chance. "It is now unlikely that she will enter the primaries but we are not going to give up trying to persuade her until the convention is over," says Adam Parkhomenko, head of votehillary.org, which was collecting signatures to draft Ms Clinton outside the dinner on Saturday.

While her views do not differ from the more moderate candidates in the race (she backed the war in Iraq) she has other attributes in her favour. "She has name recognition. She's better than all the other candidates and most importantly she can beat Bush," says Mr Parkhomenko.

Republicans, however, are convinced that the entire Democratic race thus far is little more than a dramatic ruse to get another Clinton in the Oval Office. Such theories start at the fringes, with the rightwing polemicist Carl Limbacher, whose book Hillary's Scheme: Inside the Next Clinton's Ruthless Agenda to Take the White House details Ms Clinton's plans for a "grand political coup" to take the White House in 2004.

But they end up in the mainstream. William Safire, a New York Times columnist, believes Mr Clark's decision to stand was part of a plot to hold a slot open for Ms Clinton. "If Bush stumbles and the Democratic nomination becomes highly valuable the Clintons probably think they would be able to get Clark to step aside without splintering the party, rewarding his loyalty with second place on the ticket," he wrote.

"That's an absurd feat of imagination," said Ms Clinton in response.

While Democrats may love her and Republicans loathe her, both, it seems, need her to energise their base support. And while they may disagree on what she stands for, few doubt the issue is when, rather than whether, she puts her name forward for America's top job.

"She can try and win in 2004 or she can hope that the Democrats nominate a respectable loser this time around and stand in 2008," says Maurice Carroll. "By 2012 she's on social security and its over."



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: hillary

1 posted on 11/17/2003 8:54:16 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
So when does she have to get off the pot?
2 posted on 11/17/2003 9:01:02 PM PST by dagar
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
"She is a role model for all of us," the third concludes.

Apt words from the Sopranos. After all, Hillary can put out a contract with the best of them.

3 posted on 11/17/2003 9:13:38 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Cicero
Sadly, millions of people, most of them women, believe she's "St. Hillary" for what she's had to go through. The example for this: Jackie Kennedy. The post-death revelations of Jack's screwing around only intensify the halo around her, and just like Bubba wanted to be JFK, Hillary gets to be the latter day Jackie O.

That's the only way I can explain any positives she has in the polls, whatever.

4 posted on 11/17/2003 9:38:58 PM PST by hunter112
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Even her professed decision not to stand is polarising - prompting elaborate conspiracy theories among Republicans.

Only because we know too well what a slimy slippery snake is the Hildabeaste. Ya got till Friday, bitch!

Actually, she has until the nominee is chosen at the RAT convention.

5 posted on 11/17/2003 9:42:34 PM PST by upchuck (Encourage HAMAS to pre-test their explosive devices. A dud always spoils everything.)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
I for one don't give a rodent's behind whether she runs or not. Another Democrat running for president is just another sideshow.
6 posted on 11/17/2003 9:46:25 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Meanwhile, an ABC news poll last summer found that 71% of conservative Republicans "felt strongly" about their "unfavourable" feelings towards her.

-------------------------

The problem is, conservative Republicans are a small proportion of the Republican party. There are several subcultures in the Republican party. Big business Republicans voted 20% for the Clintons. Liberal Republicans went 35% for the Clintons.

7 posted on 11/17/2003 10:02:14 PM PST by RLK
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To: RLK
If Hillary sees and opening, a week before the convention, a damning smear will be launched against Dean. (900 FBI files, etc.)

She will sweep in to save the party, and Clark will be her Veep, to bolster her defense creds.

That's how I see it playing out, IF Hillary smells blood in August.

8 posted on 11/17/2003 10:05:38 PM PST by Travis McGee (----- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com -----)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Moreover, for Ms Clinton to abandon her six-year Senate term would make her look like a dilettante carpetbagger.

Sigh. Color me dumbstruck.

9 posted on 11/17/2003 10:13:24 PM PST by FlyVet
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To: Travis McGee
Hillary doesn't really need to smear anybody. The present group of Democratic candidates is a carnival freak show. She's the only one with strength in the polls. The entire Democratic party is waiting for her. The nomination is hers with a nod of her head.

If Bush's polls lower a few points, she'll run.

10 posted on 11/17/2003 10:14:06 PM PST by RLK
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
"That's an absurd feat of imagination," said Ms Clinton in response.

Using my Hillaryspeak decoder, allow me to translate:

"That damn Safire sees through me like I was made of glass," shrugged Ms Clinton.

11 posted on 11/17/2003 10:21:04 PM PST by auboy (I'm out here on the front lines, sleep in peace tonight–American Soldier–Toby Keith, Chuck Cannon)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
I do not give a rat's behind what she does or doesn't do.
12 posted on 11/17/2003 11:03:53 PM PST by CyberAnt (America .. the LIGHT of the World)
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To: All

-The Clinton Files--

Liars-- and Sleaze, Incorporated... ( my files on the clintons and friends )

-Some old strange clinton "stuff"--

-The Atomic Genie- what we know about North Korea's Nuclear program--


Madison Society - Slick Willy
... THE CLINTON TIME LINE. The Etherzone provides, in one location, all the events
of the Clinton Ongoing Corruption from 1977 through 2000. Read more. ...

CLINTON'S ROGUES GALLERY:
... And that gets to my second chart, Mr. Speaker, which is the time line.....Up until
1993, Mr. Speaker, under Democrats and Republican Presidents alike, there ...

The Cost of Life (Clinton/Gore Sellout of Security for Campaign Contributions) **FR EXCLUSIVE** #2

DOWNSIDE LEGACY AT TWO DEGREES OF PRESIDENT CLINTON

CIA Officials Reveal What Went Wrong – Clinton to Blame

Is Bill Clinton Responsible for September 11?

Catastrophic intelligence Failure - Clinton's Bin Laden GATE

-Murder, Inc.--

-The number of "suicides" for people linked to this and other Clinton-related cases--

-ATTENTION BLOODHOUNDS--

-Women in the Clinton Era: Abuse,Intimidation and Smears--

-SEND JUANITA BROADDRICK VIDEO TO THOSE WHO WANT CLINTON TO SPEAK--

Nothing phony about response to Hillary at fete

Hillary's delegates spit on and taunt Police Honor Guard at her Convention

-Sen. Hillary Clinton--NewsMax.com Hot Topics--

Boo Hillary! The Video***

-All Hillary, all the time...--

1. The Clinton's are pro-abortion. Our children deserve better.
2. The Clinton's are against school vouchers. Our children deserve better.
3. The Clinton's are against our ballistic missile defense system. Our children deserve to be protected from rogue North Korean nuclear missiles.
4. The Clinton's want Americans to be subjected to the International Criminal Court, which has no Bill of Rights, no right to see your accuser, no jury, and no appeal. Our citizens deserve better.
5. The Clinton's want the Kyoto Treaty on Global Warming to become law. That treaty will eventually lead to the prohibition of gasoline-powered automobiles. We deserve better than to return to the pre-industrial age.

13 posted on 11/18/2003 1:50:22 AM PST by backhoe (The 1990's? Forever known as "The Decade of Fraud(s)...")
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Ok, I want to see the Sopranos episode where Hillary gets to bite the bullet... or gets the bullet... or hides the bullet... or whatever Mafia call it.
14 posted on 11/18/2003 1:54:17 AM PST by Cate
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To: dagar
As soon as she's ready to pose in a helmet inside a tank.
15 posted on 11/18/2003 2:39:27 AM PST by NYpeanut (gulping for air, I started crying and yelling at him, "Why did you lie to me?")
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