Saddam's WMD Have Been Found

Insight Magazine ^ | 26 April 2004 | Kenneth R. Timmerman

[Lando Lincoln]

New evidence out of Iraq suggests that the U.S. effort to track down Saddam Hussein's missing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is having better success than is being reported. Key assertions by the intelligence community that were widely judged in the media and by critics of President George W. Bush as having been false are turning out to have been true after all. But this stunning news has received little attention from the major media, and the president's critics continue to insist that "no weapons" have been found.

In virtually every case - chemical, biological, nuclear and ballistic missiles - the United States has found the weapons and the programs that the Iraqi dictator successfully concealed for 12 years from U.N. weapons inspectors.

The Iraq Survey Group (ISG), whose intelligence analysts are managed by Charles Duelfer, a former State Department official and deputy chief of the U.N.-led arms-inspection teams, has found "hundreds of cases of activities that were prohibited" under U.N. Security Council resolutions, a senior administration official tells Insight. "There is a long list of charges made by the U.S. that have been confirmed, but none of this seems to mean anything because the weapons that were unaccounted for by the United Nations remain unaccounted for."

Both Duelfer and his predecessor, David Kay, reported to Congress that the evidence they had found on the ground in Iraq showed Saddam's regime was in "material violation" of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441, the last of 17 resolutions that promised "serious consequences" if Iraq did not make a complete disclosure of its weapons programs and dismantle them in a verifiable manner. The United States cited Iraq's refusal to comply with these demands as one justification for going to war.

Both Duelfer and Kay found that Iraq had "a clandestine network of laboratories and safe houses with equipment that was suitable to continuing its prohibited chemical- and biological-weapons [BW] programs," the official said. "They found a prison laboratory where we suspect they tested biological weapons on human subjects." They found equipment for "uranium-enrichment centrifuges" whose only plausible use was as part of a clandestine nuclear-weapons program. In all these cases, "Iraqi scientists had been told before the war not to declare their activities to the U.N. inspectors," the official said.

But while the president's critics and the media might plausibly hide behind ambiguity and a lack of sensational-

looking finds for not reporting some discoveries, in the case of Saddam's ballistic-missile programs they have no excuse for their silence. "Where were the missiles? We found them," another senior administration official told Insight.

"Saddam Hussein's prohibited missile programs are as close to a slam dunk as you will ever find for violating United Nations resolutions," the first official said. Both senior administration officials spoke to Insight on condition that neither their name nor their agency be identified, but their accounts of what the United States has found in Iraq coincided in every major area.

When former weapons inspector Kay reported to Congress in January that the United States had found "no stockpiles" of forbidden weapons in Iraq, his conclusions made front-page news. But when he detailed what the ISG had found in testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence last October, few took notice. Among Kay's revelations, which officials tell Insight have been amplified in subsequent inspections in recent weeks:

• A prison laboratory complex that may have been used for human testing of BW agents and "that Iraqi officials working to prepare the U.N. inspections were explicitly ordered not to declare to the U.N." Why was Saddam interested in testing biological-warfare agents on humans if he didn't have a biological-weapons program?
  
  
• "Reference strains" of a wide variety of biological-weapons agents were found beneath the sink in the home of a prominent Iraqi BW scientist. "We thought it was a big deal," a senior administration official said. "But it has been written off [by the press] as a sort of 'starter set.'"
  
  
• New research on BW-applicable agents, brucella and Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever, and continuing work on ricin and aflatoxin that were not declared to the United Nations.
  
  
• A line of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, "not fully declared at an undeclared production facility and an admission that they had tested one of their declared UAVs out to a range of 500 kilometers [311 miles], 350 kilometers [217 miles] beyond the permissible limit."
  
  
• "Continuing covert capability to manufacture fuel propellant useful only for prohibited Scud-variant missiles, a capability that was maintained at least until the end of 2001 and that cooperating Iraqi scientists have said they were told to conceal from the U.N."
  
  
• "Plans and advanced design work for new long-range missiles with ranges up to at least 1,000 kilometers [621 miles] - well beyond the 150-kilometer-range limit [93 miles] imposed by the U.N. Missiles of a 1,000-kilometer range would have allowed Iraq to threaten targets throughout the Middle East, including Ankara [Turkey], Cairo [Egypt] and Abu Dhabi [United Arab Emirates]."
  
  
• In addition, through interviews with Iraqi scientists, seized documents and other evidence, the ISG learned the Iraqi government had made "clandestine attempts between late 1999 and 2002 to obtain from North Korea technology related to 1,300-kilometer-range [807 miles] ballistic missiles - probably the No Dong - 300-kilometer-range [186 miles] antiship cruise missiles and other prohibited military equipment," Kay reported.
  
  In testimony before Congress on March 30, Duelfer, revealed that the ISG had found evidence of a "crash program" to construct new plants capable of making chemical- and biological-warfare agents. The ISG also found a previously undeclared program to build a "high-speed rail gun," a device apparently designed for testing nuclear-weapons materials. That came in addition to 500 tons of natural uranium stockpiled at Iraq's main declared nuclear site south of Baghdad, which International Atomic Energy Agency spokesman Mark Gwozdecky acknowledged to Insight had been intended for "a clandestine nuclear-weapons program."
  
  In taking apart Iraq's clandestine procurement network, Duelfer said his investigators had discovered that "the primary source of illicit financing for this system was oil smuggling conducted through government-to-government protocols negotiated with neighboring countries [and] from kickback payments made on contracts set up through the U.N. oil-for-food program" [see "Documents Prove U.N. Oil Corruption," April 27-May 10].
  
  What the president's critics and the media widely have portrayed as the most dramatic failure of the U.S. case against Saddam has been the claimed failure to find "stockpiles" of chemical and biological weapons. But in a June 2003 Washington Post op-ed, former chief U.N. weapons inspector Rolf Ekeus called such criticism "a distortion and a trivialization of a major threat to international peace and security."
  
  
  The October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction concluded that Saddam "probably has stocked at least 100 metric tons (MT) and possibly as much as 500 MT of CW [chemical warfare] agents - much of it added in the last year." That assessment was based, in part, on conclusions contained in the final report from U.N. weapons inspectors in 1999, which highlighted discrepancies in what the Iraqis reported to the United Nations and the amount of precursor chemicals U.N. arms inspectors could document Iraq had imported but for which it no longer could account. Until now, Bush's critics say, no stockpiles of CW agents made with those precursors have been found. The snap conclusion they draw is that the administration "lied" to the American people to create a pretext for invading Iraq.
  
  But what are "stockpiles" of CW agents supposed to look like? Was anyone seriously expecting Saddam to have left behind freshly painted warehouses packed with chemical munitions, all neatly laid out in serried rows, with labels written in English? Or did they think that a captured Saddam would guide U.S. troops to smoking vats full of nerve gas in an abandoned factory? In fact, as recent evidence made public by a former operations officer for the Coalition Provisional Authority's (CPA's) intelligence unit in Iraq shows, some of those stockpiles have been found - not all at once, and not all in nice working order - but found all the same.
  
  Douglas Hanson was a U.S. Army cavalry reconnaissance officer for 20 years, and a veteran of Gulf War I. He was an atomic demolitions munitions security officer and a nuclear, biological and chemical defense officer. As a civilian analyst in Iraq last summer, he worked for an operations intelligence unit of the CPA in Iraq, and later, with the newly formed Ministry of Science and Technology, which was responsible for finding new, nonlethal employment for Iraqi WMD scientists.
  
  In an interview with Insight and in an article he wrote for the online magazine AmericanThinker.com, Hanson examines reports from U.S. combat units and public information confirming that many of Iraq's CW stockpiles have indeed been found. Until now, however, journalists have devoted scant attention to this evidence, in part because it contradicts the story line they have been putting forward since the U.S.-led inspections began after the war.
  
  But another reason for the media silence may stem from the seemingly undramatic nature of the "finds" Hanson and others have described. The materials that constitute Saddam's chemical-weapons "stockpiles" look an awful lot like pesticides, which they indeed resemble. "Pesticides are the key elements in the chemical-agent arena," Hanson says. "In fact, the general pesticide chemical formula (organophosphate) is the 'grandfather' of modern-day nerve agents."
  
  The United Nations was fully aware that Saddam had established his chemical-weapons plants under the guise of a permitted civilian chemical-industry infrastructure. Plants inspected in the early 1990s as CW production facilities had been set up to appear as if they were producing pesticides - or in the case of a giant plant near Fallujah, chlorine, which is used to produce mustard gas.
  
  When coalition forces entered Iraq, "huge warehouses and caches of 'commercial and agricultural' chemicals were seized and painstakingly tested by Army and Marine chemical specialists," Hanson writes. "What was surprising was how quickly the ISG refuted the findings of our ground forces and how silent they have been on the significance of these caches."
  
  Caches of "commercial and agricultural" chemicals don't match the expectation of "stockpiles" of chemical weapons. But, in fact, that is precisely what they are. "At a very minimum," Hanson tells Insight, "they were storing the precursors to restart a chemical-warfare program very quickly." Kay and Duelfer came to a similar conclusion, telling Congress under oath that Saddam had built new facilities and stockpiled the materials to relaunch production of chemical and biological weapons at a moment's notice.
  
  At Karbala, U.S. troops stumbled upon 55-gallon drums of pesticides at what appeared to be a very large "agricultural supply" area, Hanson says. Some of the drums were stored in a "camouflaged bunker complex" that was shown to reporters - with unpleasant results. "More than a dozen soldiers, a Knight-Ridder reporter, a CNN cameraman, and two Iraqi POWs came down with symptoms consistent with exposure to a nerve agent," Hanson says. "But later ISG tests resulted in a proclamation of negative, end of story, nothing to see here, etc., and the earlier findings and injuries dissolved into nonexistence. Left unexplained is the small matter of the obvious pains taken to disguise the cache of ostensibly legitimate pesticides. One wonders about the advantage an agricultural-commodities business gains by securing drums of pesticide in camouflaged bunkers 6 feet underground. The 'agricultural site' was also colocated with a military ammunition dump - evidently nothing more than a coincidence in the eyes of the ISG."
  
  That wasn't the only significant find by coalition troops of probable CW stockpiles, Hanson believes. Near the northern Iraqi town of Bai'ji, where Saddam had built a chemical-weapons plant known to the United States from nearly 12 years of inspections, elements of the 4th Infantry Division found 55-gallon drums containing a substance identified through mass spectrometry analysis as cyclosarin - a nerve agent. Nearby were surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, gas masks and a mobile laboratory that could have been used to mix chemicals at the site. "Of course, later tests by the experts revealed that these were only the ubiquitous pesticides that everybody was turning up," Hanson says. "It seems Iraqi soldiers were obsessed with keeping ammo dumps insect-free, according to the reading of the evidence now enshrined by the conventional wisdom that 'no WMD stockpiles have been discovered.'"
  
  At Taji - an Iraqi weapons complex as large as the District of Columbia - U.S. combat units discovered more "pesticides" stockpiled in specially built containers, smaller in diameter but much longer than the standard 55-gallon drum. Hanson says he still recalls the military sending digital images of the canisters to his office, where his boss at the Ministry of Science and Technology translated the Arabic-language markings. "They were labeled as pesticides," he says. "Gee, you sure have got a lot of pesticides stored in ammo dumps."
  
  Again, this January, Danish forces found 120-millimeter mortar shells filled with a mysterious liquid that initially tested positive for blister agents. But subsequent tests by the United States disputed that finding. "If it wasn't a chemical agent, what was it?" Hanson asks. "More pesticides? Dish-washing detergent? From this old soldier's perspective, I gain nothing from putting a liquid in my mortar rounds unless that stuff will do bad things to the enemy."
  
  The discoveries Hanson describes are not dramatic. And that's the problem: Finding real stockpiles in grubby ammo dumps doesn't fit the image the media and the president's critics carefully have fed to the public of what Iraq's weapons ought to look like.
  
  A senior administration official who has gone through the intelligence reporting from Iraq as well as the earlier reports from U.N. arms inspectors refers to another well-documented allegation. "The Iraqis admitted they had made 3.9 tons of VX," a powerful nerve gas, but claimed they had never weaponized it. The U.N. inspectors "felt they had more. But where did it go?" The Iraqis never provided any explanation of what had happened to their VX stockpiles.
  
  What does 3.9 tons of VX look like? "It could fit in one large garage," the official says. Assuming, of course, that Saddam would assemble every bit of VX gas his scientists had produced at a single site, that still amounts to one large garage in an area the size of the state of California.
  
  Senior administration officials stress that the investigation will continue as inspectors comb through millions of pages of documents in Iraq and attempt to interview Iraqi weapons scientists who have been trained all their professional lives to conceal their activities from the outside world.
  
  "The conditions under which the ISG is working are not very conducive," one official said. "But this president wants the truth to come out. This is not an exercise in spinning or censoring."
  
  For more on WMD, read "Iraqi Weapons in Syria"
  
  Kenneth R. Timmerman is a senior writer for Insight.
  email the author

  
  

  ---

[Lando Lincoln]

Lando

[Lando Lincoln]

I firmly believe that if the "Oil for Food" scandal is investigated to its complete conclusion, it will reveal that the UN weapons inspections were also compromised by payoffs.

Lando

[Lando Lincoln]

I firmly believe that if the "Oil for Food" scandal is investigated to its complete conclusion, it will reveal that the UN weapons inspections were also compromised by payoffs.

Lando

[republicanwizard]

Bump!

[counterpunch]

I, like the majority of Americans have never doubted that Saddam had WMDs, but Bush needs to come out and give an address about just what has been discovered.

I suspect Bush will be doing this shortly before the Democrat Convention.

[1Old Pro]

But this stunning news has received little attention from the major media

What a surprise.

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[Mr. Mojo]

But this stunning news has received little attention from the major media

Imagine that?

[ex-Texan]

Great News !

[MamaLucci]

....it will reveal that the UN weapons inspections were also compromised by payoffs.

You are probably correct.....and the pigs who have
squealed the loudest, are no doubt the ones caught
with their filthy snouts in Saddam's trough.......
namely Scott Ritter and Hans Blix.

[Eagle Eye]

Nearly a year ago someone I knew in the ISG said that there were smoking guns.

There's a whole lot more going on than any of us know. And that may not be a bad thing.

[Iron Matron]

We need to look in the places we have not looked yet:

Iraqis oh-so-holy mosques. What better palce to hide WMD?

[Allan]

ping

[ride the whirlwind]

Bump for later reading - looks fascinating.

[petercooper]

We did not have to prove Saddam had WMD. He had to prove he didn't.

[Quilla]

Excellent summary, thanks for posting this informative recap. Last week, Timmerman exposed the duplicity of Chiraq and de Villipen when voicing their support for the war in Iraq and then suddenly withdrawing it. (I'm still boycotting all things French.) Now, I'll just sit here and hold my breath until the lamestream covers this.

[MizSterious]

Much of this is not news to many of us who have gathered up the snippets of these stories where we could find them. Nevertheless, it leaves me wondering: why the heck isn't the Bush admin out there making this point? Timmerman lays it all out neatly; they could use his outline.

[ASA Vet]

What better palce to hide WMD?

Syria, as was reported on FR at the time they were being moved.

[RetiredArmy]

The so-called main stream press would not report it if the Enola Gay was discovered on the tarmac with a bomb on board, flight plans for NY City on board, with alternate drop sites of Washington, DC or Resume Speed, Arkansas. They would not report it, believe it, or think Bush somehow planned it to help his reelection gig. EVERYTHING FROM NOW ON WILL BE SUSPECT BY THE PRESS. THEY WILL REPORT THAT BUSH HAD THE MILITARY HOLD IT BACK TO HELP HIS REELECTION BID. YOU WAIT AND SEE. IF SOMETHING BIG IS DISCOVERED FROM NOW TO THE ELECTION, THAT IS HOW THEY WILL SPIN IT!

[new cruelty]

Bump to read later

[Peach]

Bump for a fascinating read.

Sending this to some liberals who don't want to let the facts get in the way of their opinions.

[FourtySeven]

Bump, good article. And I never thought about the "Oil for Food"/WMD connection, but you may very well be right.

[Huck]

That's the thing. The Bush Admin is going along with the "we had bad intel about WMD" line. They have shifted to the "democracy and UN legitimacy" rationale. Wouldnt they be out there making this case if they believed it? What gives?

[rwfromkansas]

Wasn't there supposed to be some explosive revelation at a hearing on the oil for food program? I haven't heard anything.

As for the article, yes, Iraq had remnants of WMD programs. Yes, Iraq had many many violations of UN resolutions.

But, the lede of the story makes it sound like lots of WMD have been found and the press is not reporting it. That is just not true.

Very few actual cases of WMD are reported in this article, such as: "Reference strains" of a wide variety of biological-weapons agents were found beneath the sink in the home of a prominent Iraqi BW scientist."

BIG WHOOP! So they had something with which they could restart their program with. It doesn't prove they had produced WMD's and had them right before or during our invasion.

Furthermore, this article has a lot of "may" and "might" speculations about what things were used for. Yes, they probably were used for weapons, but may or might is not the same as WE CAN PROVE THEY WERE.

I firmly believe Iraq did have them, that our intelligence was correct.

But, I sure as heck won't allow someone to sex up our findings beyond what they are.

They do not support the conclusion that Iraq had WMD's at the time of our arrival and it is A LIE to say otherwise.

That is our finding....at least as of yet. This probably will change as time goes on once we found out where the weapons are hidden.

[snooker]

Curious that the map in the article shows Falluja isn't it? You got to wonder why the fighting, might be the reason.

[rudypoot]

"It seems Iraqi soldiers were obsessed with keeping ammo dumps insect-free..."

"Danish forces found 120-millimeter mortar shells filled with a mysterious liquid that initially tested positive for blister agents. But subsequent tests by the United States disputed that finding. "If it wasn't a chemical agent, what was it?" Hanson asks. "More pesticides? Dish-washing detergent?"

It's obvious to me that the Iraqi military was very neat and clean. Not only did they want themselves flea-free, but the wanted to kill only clean enemies. What's the point of doing something if you don't look great doing it, right?

[N. Theknow]

But this stunning news has received little attention from the major media

As usual the right wing controlled media is waiting to spring this information at a time when it will be most damaging to the liberal DemonRATS.

If you believe that, please call 999-555-1212 for the latest prices on ocean front property for sale in Nebraska.

[rwfromkansas]

misleading headline......only "reference strains" found.....nothing significant

[Born Conservative]

I suspect Bush will be doing this shortly before the Democrat Convention.

Or perhaps an October Surprise?

[MizSterious]

Actually, it's the original title on the article--click the link if you don't think so. I thought we were supposed to use the original titles when we post?

[MamaLucci]

.... makes it sound like lots of WMD have been found and the press is not reporting it. That is just not true.

What IS true is that the press and rats moved the goal posts....from WMD, to WMD stockpiles, to LARGE WMD stockpiles. No matter what is found, the leftists in the media and the government will never admit they were wrong.

[Barlowmaker]

It's the original headline from the article. LandoLincoln did not change it in any misleading way.

[Tolik]

Kenneth Timmerman BUMP!

What We Knew…and Didn't Do
Posted by optimistically_conservative
On 04/17/2004 7:14:38 PM EDT with 13 comments
Reader's Digest ^ | April 13, 2004 | Kenneth Timmerman
In 1997-1998, I became aware of clearly observable warnings of hostile terrorist intentions against America, by Osama bin Laden. For over eighteen months -- as part of an investigation for Reader's Digest -- I had been learning from a variety of former U.S. intelligence officers and foreign sources about a vast, world wide network of Islamist radicals, who had emerged from the U.S.-backed war to drive the Soviet Union from Afghanistan. At their head was the shadowy Saudi renegade, Osama bin Laden, whom his followers referred to as the "Prince of Jihad." What made bin Laden unusual was his background....

Kenneth Timmerman: This Man Wants You Dead [1998 article about Osama Bin Laden and al-Qaeda]
Posted by Tolik
On 04/20/2004 11:17:11 AM EDT with 13 comments
Reader's Digest ^ | July 1998 | Kenneth Timmerman
In July 1998, Reader's Digest published Kenneth Timmerman's report, "This Man Wants You Dead." Three weeks later -- with more than 200 innocent civilians torn to bits by al-Qaeda bombs in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam -- bin Laden's face was plastered in newspapers around the world.  The notice appeared in an Arabic newspaper in London last February. "The ruling to kill Americans and their allies -- civilians and military is a duty for every Muslim. We -- with God's help -- call on every Muslim to kill the Americans." Islamic extremists make outrageous statements every day in the Arabic-language...

[not_apathetic_anymore]

bump for later read

[MizSterious]

" What IS true is that the press and rats moved the goal posts"

And so, apparently, have many Freepers.

[Cap Huff]

The following snippet from the February MTP interview has always intrigued me:

"There is going to be ample time for the American people to assess whether or not I made a — good calls, whether or not I used good judgment, whether or not I made the right decision in removing Saddam Hussein from power, and I look forward to that debate, and I look forward to talking to the American people about why I made the decisions I made."

I think the Oil for Food program, and possibly its relationship to the WMD is the background for this rather bold statement. It sounded then like he knew something that is not generally known (although the Oil for Food scandal was already percollating at the time).

[R. Scott]

Caches of "commercial and agricultural" chemicals don't match the expectation of "stockpiles" of chemical weapons. But, in fact, that is precisely what they are. "At a very minimum," Hanson tells Insight, "they were storing the precursors to restart a chemical-warfare program very quickly."

This can be a difficult to use find. Under my kitchen sink are the precursors to chemical agents. There are a lot of duel use chemicals, and unless they are in a useable munitions form they can easily be written off.

At Karbala, U.S. troops stumbled upon 55-gallon drums of pesticides at what appeared to be a very large "agricultural supply" area, Hanson says. Some of the drums were stored in a "camouflaged bunker complex" that was shown to reporters - with unpleasant results. "More than a dozen soldiers, a Knight-Ridder reporter, a CNN cameraman, and two Iraqi POWs came down with symptoms consistent with exposure to a nerve agent,"

Check the contents of a can of Raid.

Until active military munitions are found, tested positive and given wide access to by the reporters, it will still be reported that “No WMD have been found.

[R. Scott]

I suspect Bush will be doing this shortly before the Democrat Convention.

And - as close to the convention as possible, leaving no time for the spin can be initiated.

[ErnBatavia]

[MizSterious]

See also Blast Destroys Iraq Building, Injures GI (Baghdad area, WMD Search?). Be sure to read the Reuters report a little further down in the thread.

[Sidebar Moderator]

Regarding #s 28 and 30, title is posted unaltered from the source. That's correct procedure, whether or not the title happens to be misleading.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Since the RATmedia won't cover this Bush will call a news conference this summer to reveal all that has been found. Then watch the RATS squeek and squeal.

[pawdoggie]

The Bush Administration and the "ISG" in their mania to "get it right" and deliver incontrovertible evidence of WMD (both before and after the notorious African yellow cake affair) may have done themselves the ultimate disservice. Saddam acknowledged before the '91 Gulf War that he had "the binary weapon", while one of his generals spoke of using "bug spray" against the Iranians in the Iran-Iraq War. By their very nature, binary chemical weapons are composed of two otherwise inactive, dual-use agents which are only toxic when combined. To discredit the findings of alleged "pesticides" and other associated paraphernalia, to include illegal rockets and chemical artillery and mortar rounds, as the Administration and the ISG have done, has left them in a position of having to reestablish their credibility by proving beyond all doubt that anything they found or may find really is WMD.

[Lyford]

bump

[Iron Matron]

Syria, as was reported on FR at the time they were being moved

Thanks. I heard that as well. Does syria have mosques or holy places? It is like iraq and syria and other mid-east territories to hide things in mosques, then bawl and squall if anyone dares enter the holy realm

[BigWaveBetty]

I suspect Bush will be doing this shortly before the Democrat Convention.

I'm hoping for after the dem convention. That way the nation will hear them drone on and on about "the fact that no WMD were found" and then GWB lowers the boom.

Coming out with snippets of what we've found so far is GWB's answer to the inevitable question, "Why didn't we know all this before NOW?!" heh heh heh!

[LouD]

Bump

[counterpunch]

Yes, the purpose of waiting until right before the DNC Convention would be to completely overshadow the Democrats' coverage by dominating the news cycle with WMD reports.

There is no reason to wait all the way until October for such news, and as we say with Howard Dean's demise after the capture of Saddam, it can take a month or two for a candidate to become completely irrelevant after such a revelation.

I think a main factor weighing on Bush in what should be naturally higher numbers in the polls is the perception that there were no WMDs. The revelation that there in fact were WMDs would not create a temporary "bump" that would need to be timed for right before the election to have an effect, but instead simply unburden the President's naturally high numbers.

October surprises are typically last minute mud, like what happened to Bush with the DUI story. And also, the public is very cynical, and rightly so, of October surprises in general.

[Starve The Beast]

I firmly believe that if the "Oil for Food" scandal is investigated to its complete conclusion, it will reveal that the UN weapons inspections were also compromised by payoffs.

That's a big if, Lando. Right now the UN is in obfuscate mode, and there doesn't seem to be any mechanism to force them to open the books. I hope I'm wrong, but right now my money is on Kofi and his thugs keeping a lid on it.

[PattonReincarnated]

I suspect Bush will be doing this shortly before the Democrat Convention.

I smell a trap here. I think Bush will allow the Rats to go ape over WMD at the convention - as in none were found. This is one of the lefties favorite topics to bash Bush. Kerry has stayed away from the issue, but he could waffle yet again, thinking it unify the party. Then just after the convention, Bush unloads the WMD news. Let the Rats hang themselves.