Canadian Election--6/28 Live Thread

Various | 6/28/04 | Free Republic

[conservative in nyc]

The Canadian election is today. If the most recent polls are correct, the Conservative Party of Canada may win more seats in Canada's House of Commons, setting the stage for a Conservative minority government. A new day may be dawning in Canada. But the election is going to be close.

Please use this thread for any early election articles that pop-up over the course of the day, predictions and news analysis, and, of course, the actual results as they come in.

Also, please post links to Canadian elections result sites here.

[goldstategop]

The Conservatives came almost to 100 seats! When you consider it could have been worse, that's not a bad showing at all. They're 36 seats behind the Liberals and with the support of a conservative leaning independent from BC, Conservatives will actually hold 100 seats in this House Of Commons. Put that together with the 54 from the Bloc and its a tie. Exactly like the polls predicted!

[Paladin2b]

Folks, let's look at the bright side in all of this. We all know any minority government isn't going to last very long. A year, tops. And do you REALLY think Grit arrogance and corruption is going to stop or no longer surface in that year, now that the Liberals have been "chastened", as CBC says?

I think not. They have been so brainwashed into thinking that they are the Natural Ruling Party that they will go on their merry way as if they had won a huge majority. And when that next election comes around (my prediction: March '05), the Tories will capitalize.

[goldstategop]

If I were Martin, I would want a one or two seat majority. He can't be looking forward to negotiating with the Bloc that handed the Liberals their rears in his native Quebec. I'd say the real winner of this election is Gilles Duceppe. His party has been placed in a kingmaker role.

[Pres Raygun]

This is a nightmare scenario for the Liberals. They will have to suck up to the NDP to keep them in the fold. This will mean moving to the left. Approximately 1/4 to 1/3 of their voters are moderates and may be quite conservative on many issues and will be unhappy with any compromises with the NDP. The NDP will be extremely demanding lest their supporter see them as subservient to the Liberals. If the NDP are seen as a wholly owned subsidiary of the Liberals, their far left will go Green, while their right will simply decide to vote Liberal the next time. Consequently, the NDP will be very difficult to deal with so they can keep their gains. Remember that the NDP's only hope of ever forming a majority government of their own is over the dead body of the LP. Meanwhile the scandals loom over the Liberals. If they cover them up, they will be thrown out the next time. If they bring the guilty to justice, who knows how deep into the party it will go. If the NDP go along with a coverup they will be seen as complicit so they will have to speak out against the corruption causing friction between themselves and the Liberals. This all should be fun to watch.

[conservative in nyc]

My final 3:00 AM update.  From CBC.ca:

Overall Election Results
Party	Elected	Leading	Total	Vote Share
LIB	135	0	135	36.71%
CON	99	0	99	29.61%
BQ	54	0	54	12.40%
NDP	19	0	19	15.69%
NA	1	0	1	.13%
OTH	0	0	0	5.47%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT				308 seats

By Region:

ATLANTIC
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	22	0	473483	43.79%
CON	7	0	324975	30.05%
NDP	3	0	244326	22.6%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT				32 seats

QUEBEC
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
BQ	54	0	1673303	48.82%
LIB	21	0	1161465	33.88%
CON	0	0	300659	8.77%
NDP	0	0	158882	4.64%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT				75 seats

ONTARIO
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	75	0	2259987	44.67%
CON	24	0	1592368	31.47%
NDP	7	0	915291	18.09%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT				106 seats

PRAIRIES
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
CON	46	0	1147260	52.84%
LIB	6	0	552357	25.44%
NDP	4	0	331870	15.29%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:01 AM EDT				56 seats

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
CON	22	0	625119	36.26%
LIB	8	0	492762	28.59%
NDP	5	0	457167	26.52%
NA	1	0	17174	1%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT				36 seats

By Province/Territory:

NEWFOUNDLAND
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	5	0	95178	47.98%
CON	2	0	64120	32.32%
NDP	0	0	34694	17.49%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT				7 seats

NOVA SCOTIA
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	6	0	173207	39.66%
CON	3	0	122181	27.97%
NDP	2	0	124121	28.42%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT				11 seats

NEW BRUNSWICK
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	7	0	164995	44.63%
CON	2	0	115196	31.16%
NDP	1	0	75953	20.54%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT				10 seats

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	4	0	40103	52.48%
CON	0	0	23478	30.72%
NDP	0	0	9558	12.51%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT				4 seats

QUEBEC
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
BQ	54	0	1673303	48.82%
LIB	21	0	1161465	33.88%
CON	0	0	300659	8.77%
NDP	0	0	158882	4.64%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT				75 seats

ONTARIO
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
LIB	75	0	2259987	44.67%
CON	24	0	1592368	31.47%
NDP	7	0	915291	18.09%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT				106 seats

MANITOBA
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
CON	7	0	185022	39.13%
NDP	4	0	110901	23.46%
LIB	3	0	156970	33.2%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT				14 seats

SASKATCHEWAN
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
CON	13	0	178309	41.81%
LIB	1	0	115825	27.16%
NDP	0	0	99608	23.36%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT				14 seats

ALBERTA
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
CON	26	0	783929	61.64%
LIB	2	0	279562	21.98%
NDP	0	0	121361	9.54%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT				28 seats

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Party	Elected	Leading	Vote Count	Vote Share
CON	22	0	625119	36.26%
LIB	8	0	492762	28.59%
NDP	5	0	457167	26.52%
NA	1	0	17174	1%
Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT				36 seats

YUKON

Candidate

Party

Vote Count

Vote Share

Elected

Larry Bagnell

LIB

5679

45.73%

X

Pam Boyde

NDP

3184

25.64%

James Hartle

CON

2591

20.86%

Philippe LeBlond

GRN

563

4.53%

Sean Davey

MP

288

2.32%

Geoffrey Capp

CHP

114

0.92%

Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT

93 of 94 polls reporting

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

Candidate

Party

Vote Count

Vote Share

Elected

Ethel Blondin-Andrew

LIB

5313

39.44%

X

Dennis Bevington

NDP

5261

39.05%

Sean Mandeville

CON

2314

17.18%

Chris O'Brien

GRN

583

4.33%

Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT

87 of 87 polls reporting

 NUNAVUT

Candidate

Party

Vote Count

Vote Share

Elected

Nancy Karetak-Lindell

LIB

3705

51.15%

X

Manitok Thompson

IND

1173

16.19%

Bill Riddell

NDP

1108

15.3%

Duncan Cunningham

CON

1049

14.48%

Nedd Kenney

GRN

208

2.87%

Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT

56 of 58 polls reporting

[Truth29]

Can the libs just buy off some representative? Could Canada have a Jim Jeffords like switch?

[July 4th]

Wow! It looks like the one ex-Conservative Independent holds all of the power!

[Tribune7]

bump for the morning

[HostileTerritory]

I think this could be read as a strong sign for incumbents if the insurgents don't present a clear and compelling alternative.

[Alberta's Child]

In the aftermath of this election, the biggest question of all is this:

Who are the jack@sses in Alberta who elected two Liberals?

LOL.

[conservative in nyc]

Who are the jack@sses in Alberta who elected two Liberals?

It's the folks in Edmonton Centre and Edmonton-Beaumont, as usual, re-electing incumbents. Annie-grab-your-guns won by 711 votes over the Conservative Laurie Hawn; David Kilgour won by a whopping 32 votes over Conservative Tim Uppal.

[headsonpikes]

Redmonton bump!

[conservative in nyc]

Can the libs just buy off some representative? Could Canada have a Jim Jeffords like switch?

That's certainly possible. One or two of the 7 remaining Red Tories in Atlantic Canada are most suspect. Atlantic Canada's pretty close to Vermont, after all, in geography and politics.

But I think Paul Martin's going to have to govern from the center here. He won't enter into any permanent minority government arrangement with the NDP or the Bloc. He doesn't have to. Instead, Martin will collaborate with the Conservatives when appropriate, and the NDP and Bloc when appropriate.

Hopefully, Martin's not a good enough politician to pull it off, the government will fall, and the Liberals will lose. But after my spectacularly wrong projection from yesterday, I'm done prognosticating on Canadian elections -- at least for now.

[Torie]

The result ended up tied 154 (Liberals plus NDP) to 154 (Conservatives plus Bloc). The independent is bascially a Torie, or so I read. The Conservatives at the end swept all the close ones.

[jwalsh07]

They fooled ya! :-} Is this earth shattering or simply an oddity?

[You Dirty Rats]

Steyn's last take:

The morning after: You know, I don't feel so bad after all. 135 Liberals plus 19 NDP could prove mighty frustrating for Paul Martin. And my lowballing of NDP seats looks a lot better than all those TV networks declaring they'd "won" 24, 25, 25 or Jack Layton announcing they'd doubled their ridings. Off to write it up for The Western Standard. More later.

[Torie]

An oddity. The Bloc and NPD will play along with the Liberals, taking it issue by issue, until one of them decides it is useful to have a new election.

[LilyBean]

I was once a proud Canadian. I'm not anymore. My country refuses to accept change. Even when change is needed. I see jokes referring to our military carrying hockey sticks. I am sickened, but also realize how true that is. It is a very sad day for me, and for my country. The east will never change, and I will forever remain paying for things I never see come to pass.

God Bless Canada, She's Going To Need It.

LilyBean

[conservative in nyc]

If Paul Martin has half a brain, he'd be governing from the center, not the left. He'd ask for Conservative support on things like defense and taxes, and NDP and Bloc support on matters like health and child care. Bloc "support" may come in the form of abstaining from votes or having designated "sick" MPs, if the Bloc feels overt support isn't possible. That way, the Bloc could say "non" but get what it wants passed.

This is Mr. Martin's moment to put up or shut up. Adversity makes good leaders or miserable failures. If Martin can govern effectively, he will call another election in a year or two to win an outright majority, and may be Prime Minister for the next 10 years. If he fails miserably, the opposition will call an election and the Liberals will likely lose seats. The Conservatives may have lost this battle, but the war against socialism continues.

By the way - this feels more like a Conservative loss than it really is because of expectations. The polls were spectacularly wrong, outside of Quebec. Only the oddsmakers at www.betwwts.com got it right. The election prediction project was close, but overestimated NDP support.

[conservative in nyc]

I think the reason we were fooled into thinking the combined Liberal &ampNDP vote would be sufficient for majority is that the media called one B.C. riding, Sunshine Coast, for the Liberals far too early. If I am correct, it was the CBC's mini-Florida moment.