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Canadian Election--6/28 Live Thread
Various | 6/28/04 | Free Republic

Posted on 06/28/2004 2:51:25 AM PDT by conservative in nyc

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To: conservative in nyc

The Conservatives came almost to 100 seats! When you consider it could have been worse, that's not a bad showing at all. They're 36 seats behind the Liberals and with the support of a conservative leaning independent from BC, Conservatives will actually hold 100 seats in this House Of Commons. Put that together with the 54 from the Bloc and its a tie. Exactly like the polls predicted!


661 posted on 06/28/2004 11:46:27 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: conservative in nyc
Folks, let's look at the bright side in all of this. We all know any minority government isn't going to last very long. A year, tops. And do you REALLY think Grit arrogance and corruption is going to stop or no longer surface in that year, now that the Liberals have been "chastened", as CBC says?

I think not. They have been so brainwashed into thinking that they are the Natural Ruling Party that they will go on their merry way as if they had won a huge majority. And when that next election comes around (my prediction: March '05), the Tories will capitalize.
662 posted on 06/28/2004 11:46:40 PM PDT by Paladin2b
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To: Paladin2b

If I were Martin, I would want a one or two seat majority. He can't be looking forward to negotiating with the Bloc that handed the Liberals their rears in his native Quebec. I'd say the real winner of this election is Gilles Duceppe. His party has been placed in a kingmaker role.


663 posted on 06/28/2004 11:53:44 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Paladin2b

This is a nightmare scenario for the Liberals. They will have to suck up to the NDP to keep them in the fold. This will mean moving to the left. Approximately 1/4 to 1/3 of their voters are moderates and may be quite conservative on many issues and will be unhappy with any compromises with the NDP. The NDP will be extremely demanding lest their supporter see them as subservient to the Liberals. If the NDP are seen as a wholly owned subsidiary of the Liberals, their far left will go Green, while their right will simply decide to vote Liberal the next time. Consequently, the NDP will be very difficult to deal with so they can keep their gains. Remember that the NDP's only hope of ever forming a majority government of their own is over the dead body of the LP. Meanwhile the scandals loom over the Liberals. If they cover them up, they will be thrown out the next time. If they bring the guilty to justice, who knows how deep into the party it will go. If the NDP go along with a coverup they will be seen as complicit so they will have to speak out against the corruption causing friction between themselves and the Liberals. This all should be fun to watch.


664 posted on 06/29/2004 12:14:00 AM PDT by Pres Raygun
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My final 3:00 AM update.  From CBC.ca:

Overall Election Results
Party Elected Leading Total Vote Share
LIB 135 0 135 36.71%
CON 99 0 99 29.61%
BQ 54 0 54 12.40%
NDP 19 0 19 15.69%
NA 1 0 1 .13%
OTH 0 0 0 5.47%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT 308 seats

By Region:

 ATLANTIC
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 22 0 473483 43.79%
CON 7 0 324975 30.05%
NDP 3 0 244326 22.6%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 32 seats

QUEBEC
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
BQ 54 0 1673303 48.82%
LIB 21 0 1161465 33.88%
CON 0 0 300659 8.77%
NDP 0 0 158882 4.64%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT 75 seats

ONTARIO
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 75 0 2259987 44.67%
CON 24 0 1592368 31.47%
NDP 7 0 915291 18.09%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT 106 seats

PRAIRIES
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
CON 46 0 1147260 52.84%
LIB 6 0 552357 25.44%
NDP 4 0 331870 15.29%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:01 AM EDT 56 seats

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
CON 22 0 625119 36.26%
LIB 8 0 492762 28.59%
NDP 5 0 457167 26.52%
NA 1 0 17174 1%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 36 seats

By Province/Territory:

 NEWFOUNDLAND
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 5 0 95178 47.98%
CON 2 0 64120 32.32%
NDP 0 0 34694 17.49%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 7 seats

NOVA SCOTIA
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 6 0 173207 39.66%
CON 3 0 122181 27.97%
NDP 2 0 124121 28.42%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 11 seats

NEW BRUNSWICK
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 7 0 164995 44.63%
CON 2 0 115196 31.16%
NDP 1 0 75953 20.54%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 10 seats

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 4 0 40103 52.48%
CON 0 0 23478 30.72%
NDP 0 0 9558 12.51%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT 4 seats


QUEBEC
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
BQ 54 0 1673303 48.82%
LIB 21 0 1161465 33.88%
CON 0 0 300659 8.77%
NDP 0 0 158882 4.64%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT 75 seats

ONTARIO
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
LIB 75 0 2259987 44.67%
CON 24 0 1592368 31.47%
NDP 7 0 915291 18.09%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:05:32 AM EDT 106 seats

MANITOBA
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
CON 7 0 185022 39.13%
NDP 4 0 110901 23.46%
LIB 3 0 156970 33.2%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT 14 seats

SASKATCHEWAN
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
CON 13 0 178309 41.81%
LIB 1 0 115825 27.16%
NDP 0 0 99608 23.36%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT 14 seats

ALBERTA
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
CON 26 0 783929 61.64%
LIB 2 0 279562 21.98%
NDP 0 0 121361 9.54%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:34 AM EDT 28 seats

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Party Elected Leading Vote Count Vote Share
CON 22 0 625119 36.26%
LIB 8 0 492762 28.59%
NDP 5 0 457167 26.52%
NA 1 0 17174 1%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 36 seats

YUKON
Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share Elected
Larry Bagnell LIB 5679 45.73% X
Pam Boyde NDP 3184 25.64%
James Hartle CON 2591 20.86%
Philippe LeBlond GRN 563 4.53%
Sean Davey MP 288 2.32%
Geoffrey Capp CHP 114 0.92%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 93 of 94 polls reporting

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share Elected
Ethel Blondin-Andrew LIB 5313 39.44% X
Dennis Bevington NDP 5261 39.05%
Sean Mandeville CON 2314 17.18%
Chris O'Brien GRN 583 4.33%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 87 of 87 polls reporting

 NUNAVUT
Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share Elected
Nancy Karetak-Lindell LIB 3705 51.15% X
Manitok Thompson IND 1173 16.19%
Bill Riddell NDP 1108 15.3%
Duncan Cunningham CON 1049 14.48%
Nedd Kenney GRN 208 2.87%
 Last Update:  June 29, 3:06:03 AM EDT 56 of 58 polls reporting

665 posted on 06/29/2004 12:18:35 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: Pres Raygun

Can the libs just buy off some representative? Could Canada have a Jim Jeffords like switch?


666 posted on 06/29/2004 1:46:00 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: goldstategop

Wow! It looks like the one ex-Conservative Independent holds all of the power!


667 posted on 06/29/2004 4:50:00 AM PDT by July 4th (You need to click "Abstimmen")
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To: July 4th

bump for the morning


668 posted on 06/29/2004 5:51:27 AM PDT by Tribune7
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To: GraniteStateConservative

I think this could be read as a strong sign for incumbents if the insurgents don't present a clear and compelling alternative.


669 posted on 06/29/2004 6:45:56 AM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: conservative in nyc
In the aftermath of this election, the biggest question of all is this:

Who are the jack@sses in Alberta who elected two Liberals?

LOL.

670 posted on 06/29/2004 7:14:14 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Ego numquam pronunciare mendacium . . . sed ego sum homo indomitus")
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To: Alberta's Child
Who are the jack@sses in Alberta who elected two Liberals?

It's the folks in Edmonton Centre and Edmonton-Beaumont, as usual, re-electing incumbents. Annie-grab-your-guns won by 711 votes over the Conservative Laurie Hawn; David Kilgour won by a whopping 32 votes over Conservative Tim Uppal.
671 posted on 06/29/2004 7:33:35 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: Alberta's Child

Redmonton bump!


672 posted on 06/29/2004 7:41:46 AM PDT by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: Truth29
Can the libs just buy off some representative? Could Canada have a Jim Jeffords like switch?

That's certainly possible. One or two of the 7 remaining Red Tories in Atlantic Canada are most suspect. Atlantic Canada's pretty close to Vermont, after all, in geography and politics.

But I think Paul Martin's going to have to govern from the center here. He won't enter into any permanent minority government arrangement with the NDP or the Bloc. He doesn't have to. Instead, Martin will collaborate with the Conservatives when appropriate, and the NDP and Bloc when appropriate.

Hopefully, Martin's not a good enough politician to pull it off, the government will fall, and the Liberals will lose. But after my spectacularly wrong projection from yesterday, I'm done prognosticating on Canadian elections -- at least for now.
673 posted on 06/29/2004 7:44:14 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: conservative in nyc; jwalsh07

The result ended up tied 154 (Liberals plus NDP) to 154 (Conservatives plus Bloc). The independent is bascially a Torie, or so I read. The Conservatives at the end swept all the close ones.


674 posted on 06/29/2004 9:23:45 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

They fooled ya! :-} Is this earth shattering or simply an oddity?


675 posted on 06/29/2004 9:29:00 AM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

Steyn's last take:

The morning after: You know, I don't feel so bad after all. 135 Liberals plus 19 NDP could prove mighty frustrating for Paul Martin. And my lowballing of NDP seats looks a lot better than all those TV networks declaring they'd "won" 24, 25, 25 or Jack Layton announcing they'd doubled their ridings. Off to write it up for The Western Standard. More later.


676 posted on 06/29/2004 10:09:22 AM PDT by You Dirty Rats (WE WILL WIN WITH W - Isara)
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To: jwalsh07

An oddity. The Bloc and NPD will play along with the Liberals, taking it issue by issue, until one of them decides it is useful to have a new election.


677 posted on 06/29/2004 10:19:54 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

I was once a proud Canadian. I'm not anymore. My country refuses to accept change. Even when change is needed. I see jokes referring to our military carrying hockey sticks. I am sickened, but also realize how true that is. It is a very sad day for me, and for my country. The east will never change, and I will forever remain paying for things I never see come to pass.

God Bless Canada, She's Going To Need It.

LilyBean


678 posted on 06/29/2004 10:42:36 AM PDT by LilyBean
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To: Torie

If Paul Martin has half a brain, he'd be governing from the center, not the left. He'd ask for Conservative support on things like defense and taxes, and NDP and Bloc support on matters like health and child care. Bloc "support" may come in the form of abstaining from votes or having designated "sick" MPs, if the Bloc feels overt support isn't possible. That way, the Bloc could say "non" but get what it wants passed.

This is Mr. Martin's moment to put up or shut up. Adversity makes good leaders or miserable failures. If Martin can govern effectively, he will call another election in a year or two to win an outright majority, and may be Prime Minister for the next 10 years. If he fails miserably, the opposition will call an election and the Liberals will likely lose seats. The Conservatives may have lost this battle, but the war against socialism continues.

By the way - this feels more like a Conservative loss than it really is because of expectations. The polls were spectacularly wrong, outside of Quebec. Only the oddsmakers at www.betwwts.com got it right. The election prediction project was close, but overestimated NDP support.


679 posted on 06/29/2004 11:25:39 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: jwalsh07
I think the reason we were fooled into thinking the combined Liberal &ampNDP vote would be sufficient for majority is that the media called one B.C. riding, Sunshine Coast, for the Liberals far too early. If I am correct, it was the CBC's mini-Florida moment.
680 posted on 06/29/2004 11:31:52 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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