Posted on 11/01/2004 8:03:41 AM PST by The G Man
BAD NEWS AND GOOD NEWS [11/01 10:56 AM]
The bad news, passed on by Middle Cheese: Bush’s poll numbers in Ohio on Sunday night were terrible. Might be a bad sample, or it might be that the last minute break of the undecided is going for Kerry.
Good news: Quinnipiac has Bush up 8 in Florida, and tied in Pennsylvania. In New Jersey, they have Kerry up five. (That would still be an 11-point jump for Bush from 2000, which I find plausible.)
For those who will be sent into a panic (or euphoria) about the Ohio information above, I point out that the judging by Kerry’s last-minute visit to Detroit, the Democrats must be worried about Michigan. Like Pennsylvania, it’s one of those big blue states that if flipped to red would mean an early night for us all.
Uh, Jim ... we were out trick or treating with our kids last night. Hello???
Just saw this, so hard to know. The new Cincinnati poll just out has Bush +1. It was a 4 day poll that went through yesterday. Most recent polls show Bush up and trending positive. Looks like OH is truly a dead heat from all the polls. Will come down to the GOTV efforts.
Internal polling or he talking bout Gallup and Zogby?
I doubt its anything to worry bout either way
That would be what he meant by bad sample.
Florida baby, it's all about Florida.
Exactly! I turned off the phone last evening so I could focus on giving neighbor kids sugar shock (while the better half took our little ones out in search of their own sugar shock).
I'd bet a lot of people were like me and were focused on other things than panic polling.
No it's not....it's about OHIO...we are doing our job down here....Bush is going to win Florida.....You OHIO people are the key...hate to put pressure on you....but it's on OHIO...
If Bush wins Florida it's over. If Kerry wins Florida Bush is packing his bags for Crawford.
trick or treating or at Bush rallies - or working the phones!!!!
i can understand why Florida "COULD" go to Kerry by its demographic make-up...but OHIO just baffles me? I will never consider that state a part of the heartland EVER again if they sell out to the hand out socialist regime....
Weekend polling. Sunday was a holiday. Having a bad sample on Sundays seams reasonable...
Florida is relatively safe. Ohio is the real concern. If Ohio falls for Kerry, it is possible -- likely -- that he can run the table in the midwest and win.
A bad sample because of Halloween?
Internal poll.
I want to hear what today's internal polling is in OH.
Last night people were out with their kids tricker treating.
If Bush wins Florida, he can lose virtually every battleground state and still win.
BS Pollyanna, do the math. Currently Bush is at 227EV, with FL and NM gets it to 259. Undecided states are NH(4), PA(21), MI(17), OH(20), WI(10), MN(10), IA(7), and maybe HI(4). He's not going to win NJ if he doesn't win enough of the others to get to 269. Currently he's down in NH, tied or down in PA and OH, down in MI, and slightly up to down in WI, MN, IA, and HI. OH and WI seem to have tanked over the weekend, WI's slide has been more than a single day, and an IA win is 50/50 right now and might not be enough. The Blackwell decision not to fight the Clinton hack's blocking of challengers were made before the OH numbers crashed, and thus may end up biting us in the butt. Sure those are Sunday numbers that could be an outlier, but you really think the Bush campaign's polling unit was so stupid as to not factor in Halloween? MN and WI both have same day registration, another fraud vehicle. Kerry could very easily steal this one, with Bush stuck at 259, 263, or 266.
That being said, the race is still Bush's to lose, he still is likely up nationally by 2, undecideds will most likely split(benefiting Bush), the odds still favor the President, and it is paramount that everyone plow full speed ahead with their GOTV and actual voting. But overconfident/false bravado garbage does no one any favors.
Just to be clear, OH is not lost, but in danger. I predict a Bush victory in both the EC and popular vote.
However there is a very real possibility that he will lose with only 259-266 EV, and closely lose multiple states to large, systematic vote fraud schemes. If that happens, I predict he will ultimately discuss and outline this, then state for the good of the country he will not go through a lengthy multi-state legal fight to overturn the election, but instead push the new Congress to pass a detailed comprehensive anti-vote fraud act, addressing registration, absentee voting, military voting, ballot integrity, and requirements for both picture id's and social security numbers presented at polling places. Kerry and the Dems would get their four years but lose their fraud machine, and the public momentum would be on the GOP side. Somewhat similar to the Progressive reforms 100 years ago.
Yeah, the President has called me twice to my Miami home
1) Married people and parents trend Republican.
2) Among adults, it's almost entirely parents who are out on Halloween. (A Saturday Halloween would have more twenty-somethings at parties.)
3) I'd bet parents are also over-represented amongst those who are hosting trick-or-treaters.
4) Group 2 above (and to a lesser extent group 3) were not answering their phones in the early evening hours.
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