Posted on 11/04/2004 12:13:38 AM PST by Remember_Salamis
Dear FReepers,
I have put together analysis of 2006 Senate Races. Bottom Line: We look STRONG! There are many more retirements on the Democratic side (Feinstein, Byrd, Kohl, Bingaman, and maybe even Ted Kennedy) versus less on the GOP side (Frist plus Lugar, Lott, and Hatch are rumored to be mulling retirement). There are also a lot of other factors:
Republicans (15)
Solid Win - George Allen of Virginia – Allen’s seat is very safe
Win - Conrad Burns of Montana – Democrat Brian Schweitzer gave him a run for his money in 2000, but Schweitzer is the only prominent democrat in MT and he had to squeak out a congressional race.
Loss - Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island – I will make a confident prediction: Chafee or Snowe will lose in 2006. The Club for Growth absolutely detests Chafee, Snowe, and Collins and hey will spend millions to defeat on of them IN THE PRIMARIES. IF Chafee makes it through the primary, I think he’ll lose. His father’s name recognition is starting to wear off, and it’s a blue state.
Solid Win - Mike DeWine of Ohio – Safe Seat
Win - John Ensign of Nevada – Swing state, but win. Ensign is a very popular tax-cutter in NV and should pull it out. Ensign’s influence is growing rapidly and with Democrat Reid being the probable Minority leader, Nevadans will be very happy with major influence on both sides of the aisle. Besides, there’s not much Democratic competition outside of Shelley Berkley.
Retirement, Loss- Bill Frist of Tennessee - Frist will retire, as he has pledged, and conservative democrat Harold Ford jr. will win the seat. I’m not saying that Republican congressman Wamp can’t win the seat, but he can’t compete with Ford’s star power.
Solid Win - Orrin Hatch of Utah – Even if Hatch retires, there’s no way that Rep. Matheson (D) will beat the very popular Rep. Chris Cannon (R).
Solid Win- Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas – Safe.
Solid Win - John Kyl of Arizona – Very safe.
Win, but poss. Retirement - Trent Lott of Mississippi – Lott wins if he stays, but State attorney General Moore could put this seat in the democrat’s camp if he retires.
Win, regardless of retirement - Richard Lugar of Indiana – Outgoing Gov. Kernan (D), who was just voted out of office, might take a shot at Lugar’s seat. Other than that’ there aren’t many prominent democrats in the state not named Bayh.
Possible Loss - Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – The Dems hate this guy like we hate Daschle or Harkin. There’s a good chance that the Democrats run Bob Casey jr. (fmr. Gov Bob Casey Sr.’s son), who is pro-life just like his father. Casey can piggyback off the Philadelphia political machine and go toe-to-toe with Santorum in Western PA on social issues.
Possible Loss - Olympia Snowe of Maine – Either the Maine GOP will purge her and get their soul back, or the Dems will simply beat her in the open election. Win - Jim Talent of Missouri – Missouri is moving out of the swing state category and more towards the red state category. I can’t see Talent losing unless Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) (Mel and Jean’s son) runs, but he’s pretty green (elected to the House in 2000).
Win - Craig Thomas of Wyoming – Not a chance of a loss
So, I have 11 Republican retentions and Four Republican losses.
Democrats (17) Solid Win - Daniel Akaka of Hawaii – Unless Gov. Lingle decides to run for Senate instead of Governor in 2006, which is highly unlikely, this is as big a lock as any seat.
Win, unless he retires - Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico – Heather Wilson, a former US Air Force Officer and current congresswoman, is going to run regardless. She has a good shot against Bingaman, but a great shot vs. an open seat.
Loss after Retirement or Death - Robert Byrd of West Virginia – Unless the former Klansman dies, he’ll probably retire. Although I’m hoping for the former, Shelley Capito (R), a moderate republican, should win in a state trending red. She’ll have to duke it out with two young conservative democratic congressmen, but she should pull it out.
Loss - Maria Cantwell of Washington – Although liberal whackjob and fellow Washington senator Patty Murray makes Cantwell look conservative, she is completely out of touch with those outside of Seattle. Republican George Nethercutt’s campaign against Murray caught on late, but the giant killer (he beat the unbeatable Tom Foley 10 years ago) has recently stated he’s considering “pulling a Thune” and running against Cantwell. Nethercutt will win in 2006. Guaranteed.
Win - Thomas Carper of Delaware – Safe
Loss - Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York – Rudy Giuliani WILL BEAT HER! In fact, there’s even a possibility that she resigns in 2006 to run for President in 2008 if she feels Rudy has a chance of winning. If that’s the case, Rudy easily beats AG Spitzer.
Win, but I don’t under stand why - Kent Conrad of North Dakota – How many years behind South Dakota is North Dakota politically. Both are HEAVILY RED states that elect two democrats to panhandle for farm subsidies. Conrad doesn’t have Dorgan’s political clout in D.C, so if popular – and just re-elected, Governor Hoeven decides to run, he could win. But I think he likes sitting in the Governor’s chair.
Loss - John Corzine of New Jersey – Backlash Alert! The backlash against McGAYvey will break the democratic political machine in Jersey. Corzine will be the first victim.
Loss - Mark Dayton of Minnesota – The already-vulnerable Dayton is now a laughingstock after fleeing D.C. last month due to concern over terrorism. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, no bastion of conservative thought, called Dayton "Cassandra," a "flake" and a "little chicken." Up-and-coming Conservative Rep. Mark Kennedy has been foaming at the mouth to take out Dayton since his friend Norm Coleman won a senate seat two years ago.
Loss after retirement - Dianne Feinstein of California – The gun-grabbin’ grandma will probably retire in 2006, and the Republicans will have a competitive primary between Rep. Issa, grassroots superstar Tom McCLintock, and National Security Advisor Condi Rice may all throw their hats in. Tom has stated he is already preparing for a run for Lt. Governor in 2006 instead, but we shall see. If Condi Rice runs, which I expect, Condi the Moderate will ride the Governator’s moderate coattails during his Gubernatorial campaign. Another reason why I think that the GOP will pick up this seat if Feinstein retires is that the Democrats will be throwing everything they have to defeat Arnie, leaving the senate seat ripe for the picking. An Arnie-Condi-Tom ticket could sweep the GOP back into prominence in the Golden State.
Win, even if he retires - Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts – Even if Teddy retires, it won’t be much of an improvement with gay icon Rep. Barney Frank in his seat. Gov. Romney could win the open seat, but I believe he’s eying the White House (which he will not win).
Loss after Retirement - Herb Kohl of Wisconsin – Rumors are a-flyin’ that Kohl will retire and HUD Secretary and former Gov. Tommy Thompson will run for his seat and take it.
Win - Joe Lieberman of Connecticut – It may sound strange, but keeping a moderate anchor in the Democratic Party in the senate is a good thing for this country.
Loss - Bill Nelson of Florida – You heard it here first: Jeb Bush will run for the Senate in 2006 and win. His Governor's seat is up that year too, so Jeb will decide to follow in his grandpappy's footsteps and become a Senator. I've heard is a bit of a policy wonk so he sounds great for the Senate. What's more, having Jeb in the senate is like keeping a spare tire in the trunk. If the wheels fall off the GOP in the 2008 election, we have an EXCELLENT "spare candidate" waiting in the wings in the senate for 2012.
Win - Ben Nelson of Nebraska – Nebraskans love having two moderates hugging the center from both sides.
Loss, even if he retires- Paul Sarbanes of Maryland – “The Man of Steele” will win. LT. Gov. Michael Steele, the black conservative who wowed so many at the convention, will run in 2006 for the Senate AND WIN. He was going to run against Sen. Mikulski this year, but the Governor asked him to wait. Steele has strongly hinted he will run in 2006.
Win - Debbie Stabenow of Michigan – A crappy candidate, but there’s little competition right now.
Dems retain 8, lose 9.
Independent (1) Previous %
Win, but we won’t pick up the seat - Jim Jeffords of Vermont – probable democratic pick-up in a very liberal state.
So, what does this all add up to? Well, the GOP will pick up 5 Seats for the second election in a row, the democrats will lose four, and Jeffords will either (1) become a Democrat or (2) lose.
That will put the Senate at 60-40 GOP. I feel very confident in this number because the GOP seats I picked to lose aren’t extremely weak, but merely vulnerable. Many people will vehemently disagree with my pick that BOTH New England RINOs up for reelection in 2006 will lose, that the majority leader will retire and the Democrats will take the seat, and that Rick Santorum will out and out lose. I’m also assuming that Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) will win, even though he’s definitely beatable and may even retire. I’m also assuming that Mitt Romney will not run for Teddy Kennedy’s seat if he were to die or retire. So technically, the GOP could get as many as 65 seats and should pick up at least 2 or 3 seats at a minimum. It’s pretty simple: in 2006 the Democrats have far more vulnerable seats than the GOP. The Democrats also have far more potential retirements than we do.
But there could there be a downturn to such a bright future in 2006??? Yes. If the GOP expects to make massive gains in 2006, there’s a chance that they will hold off on stronger, more controversial legislation until they get above 60 votes. They can then pass many of the historic pieces of legislation that we all want: Social Security privatization, Fundamental Tax Reform, Major Tort Reform (although I expect tort reform this spring), etc. So we could see the 109th Congress as nothing more than setting the stage for the 110th. The next two years will still be critical, however, as we may see MULTIPLE Supreme Court appointments.
- Remember Salamis
IT will be Rudy, who WILL NEVER get the nomination for the GOP (A Mayor who's a pro-choice RADICAL and anti-second amendment)? Come on. Rudy knows his future is in the Senate.
Pataki can run fo Governor again. He's not term-limited, so he can run again in 2006 for GOV and the run against Schumer in 2010 or remain GOV forever.
I think Bayh is a respectable democrat. OF course, he's not Zell Miller or John Breaux (I'm suprised Breaux never endoresed Bush like Zell did). But he's a modern democrat's version of a moderate.
Nice word choice!
BUMP for later...
The only thing "respectable" about Bayh is that he is anti-PBA, but not much else (and I've heard some rumors regarding him that I won't repeat openly), but most 'Rats I've spoken to said there is NO WAY Bayh would get the Presidential nod (partly on the abortion issue, and others). You have to remember, the base of the party is SO radically left, their litmus test for candidates is 180 degrees away from ours, and they can't veer from it one iota. As for John Breaux, he's a mixed bag, but he's largely been a slick character who is very calculating at home (he was initially going to resign early to allow Chris John to be appointed to his seat, but decided against it for fear of a backlash). I think the most respectable Democrat in LA right now is New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. He really put his neck on the line endorsing now Rep-elect Bobby Jindal for the Governorship last year, and probably has ruined his chances for a 2nd term. He's the best Mayor the city has had in ages, if only because he has ETHICS.
I completely agree with you on that. Ironically, while this year's election results were great for the GOP, it meant curtains for any hopes of Pataki or Rudy winning the '08 nomination. Their brand of politics would never play well in the heartland.
Pataki will have an uphill fight in the '06 race against either Schumer or Spitzer. His approval ratings are in the toilet right now. Rudy's our best hope of winning that seat.
If Kennedy decides to retire, which I doubt he will, he's going to try to pass his seat off to his lightweight nephew, former Congressman Joe Kennedy. I think Joe was named one of the dumbest Congressmen in America a few years back.
Either way, the only Republicans in this state who could make a competitive run at that seat are Romney (who is looking at the '08 GOP nomination) and Andy Card, assuming he decides to step down as COS.
i concur with the others: however the future judges the accuracy of your work, it is nonetheless impressive.
I think in nebraska nelson will loss to republican johanns the current governor who is term limited in 2006
Loss - Bill Nelson of Florida – You heard it here first: Jeb Bush will run for the Senate in 2006 and win.
In return for her NOT running for the open Graham seat this time and causing state wide havoc, Katherine Harris was promised a shot at Bill Nelso with 100% party support and access to resources. She won her race for the House this time and will be "seasoned" enough to fill this slot.
Jeb wants to go home to Miami and get back into business (he's a friend of my family from before he was Gov) and he won't seek the Senate. He might still run for Pres in 08, but I doubt it.
I think the dream ticket for 2008 would be if Cheney resigns in 2006 and Condi Rice fills the position as VP then she runs for VP and Jeb Bush runs for Pres. But I don't think it'll happen like this....STILL....it is a dream I have.....
We can start discussing 06 in 05.
Snowe will win easily in my state. I might even help. Reality dictates that Maine is a liberal state, but Snowe is well liked. A true conservative will never win here; too much to overcome. I'll take her and Collins. The RINOs will be more marginalized now that we have 55 in the Senate, and their most important votes are for Bill Frist. If we're a big tent, we need "moderates" or we lose.
Talent of Missouri is up in 2000. Although he won in 2002, that was a special election because the seat itself is on the 2000 cycle. This is the seat which a dead man won in 2000, then went to appointment by his widow, then by special election to Talent. I think he will hold, even if Robin Carnahan, our newly elected Secretary of State, runs on her name recognition. She is a lesbian and he is a conservative Christian.
I haven't voted for snowe in 25 years but I'm afraid she's a lock unless somebody can change the basic nature of Republicans in Maine who consider themselves "good Republicans" as opposed to "bad conservative Republicans".
The Margaret Chase Smith syndrome is very strong here and is accompanied by a sanctimonious correctness that sickens.
Missing factor. Consider a strategy where Bush appoints some D senators in R states whose governors have the power of appointment. We get instant increase now and maybe ability to stop filibuster on SC appointments.
Very good. From what I understand, Kay Bailey WILL be running. Can you say Senator Dewhurst?
I think you are right about Jeb wanting to go home to Miami especially because Columba never liked Tallahassee,and he wants to get back to earning money. Katherine Harris will run for Nelson's seat and win. Nelson is a lefty that fakes conservative,and kissed up to Michael Moore,and also Kerry (especially in that disastrous Space Center photo). Katherine Harris is conservative,but appeals to moderates and is well liked by minorities. She will also get a lot of help from Martinez if she needs it with the Latin community. She stayed out this year and will be well financed by RPOF for her cooperation.
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