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Iranian Alert - December 3, 2004 [EST] -- Rumsfeld warns Iran making 'a lot of mistakes'
Regime Change Iran ^ | 12.3.2004 | DoctorZin

Posted on 12/02/2004 11:12:55 PM PST by DoctorZIn

Top News Story

Rumsfeld warns Iran making 'a lot of mistakes'


Thu Dec 2, 7:08 PM ET

Add to My Yahoo!  Politics - AFP

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Iran was "making a lot of mistakes" but said any action to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons was a call for President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and other leaders to make.

Photo
AFP/File Photo

 

Rumsfeld was asked in an interview with Fox News television whether the United States could allow Iran to become another North Korea (news - web sites), which is believed to have nuclear weapons.

"The Iranians are making a lot of mistakes, let me just put it that way," Rumsfeld said.

Earlier, he said Bush has decided to work through the Europeans and the United Nations (news - web sites) to put diplomatic pressure on Iran to give up nuclear program.

"And what one has to do at that stage is continue to put pressure on them, and it's up to the countries of the United Nations to decide what kind of steps they may or may not want to take," he said.

Asked what the odds were that the United States would have to confront Iran militarily, Rumsfeld said, "I guess those are calls for the president ... or for other leaders of other countries to make."

He noted that Iran had a large population of young people and women who were dissatisfied with Iran's clerical rule.

"That is not a stable situation," he said.

"My hope is that over time we will see a shift in that country, just as we saw a shift from the shah to the ayatollah. It happened almost overnight," he said.



TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: armyofmahdi; axisofevil; axisofweasels; ayatollah; binladen; cleric; eu; germany; humanrights; iaea; insurgency; iran; iranianalert; iraq; islamicrepublic; japan; journalist; kazemi; khamenei; khatami; khatemi; lsadr; moqtadaalsadr; mullahs; napalminthemorning; neoeunazis; persecution; persia; persian; politicalprisoners; protests; rafsanjani; religionofpeace; revolutionaryguard; rumsfeld; russia; satellitetelephones; shiite; southasia; southwestasia; studentmovement; studentprotest; terrorism; terrorists; us; vevak; wot

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin

1 posted on 12/02/2004 11:12:57 PM PST by DoctorZIn
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To: Pan_Yans Wife; fat city; freedom44; Tamsey; Grampa Dave; PhiKapMom; McGavin999; Hinoki Cypress; ...
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

2 posted on 12/02/2004 11:15:17 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn


The End of the Left’s History

The world has moved on.

The hysterical reaction of the Western Left to the reelection of President George W. Bush is not just a primal scream from politicians and intellectuals deprived of political power. The violent language, numerous acts of violence, and demonization of Bush and his electorate — the same as that directed against Tony Blair in Britain, Jose Maria Aznar in Spain, and Silvio Berlusconi in Italy — portend a more fundamental event: the death rattle of the traditional Left, both as a dominant political force and as an intellectual vision.

For the most part, the Left only wins elections nowadays when their candidates run on their opponents’ platform (Clinton and Blair) or when panic overwhelms the political process (Zapatero and Schroeder). Under normal circumstances, leftists running as leftists rarely win, proving that their ideology — the ideology that dominated political and intellectual debate for most of the last century — is spent. When their ideas were in vogue, leftist advocates took electoral defeat in stride, as they were confident that their vision was far more popular — because far more accurate — than their opponents’ view of the world. History and logic were on their side. But no more. Incoherent rage and unbridled personal attacks on the winners are sure signs of a failed vision.

Ironically, the Left’s view of history provides us with part of the explanation for its death. Marx and Hegel both understood that the world constantly changes, and ideas change along with it. The world they knew — and successfully transformed — was a class-bound society dominated by royalty and aristocracy. They hurled themselves into class struggle, believing it to be the engine of human history, and they fought for liberty for all. Successive generations of leftists preached and organized democratic revolution at home and abroad, from the overthrow of tyrants to the abolition of class privileges and the redistribution of both political power and material wealth.

In true dialectical fashion, they were doomed by their own success. As once-impoverished workers became wealthier, the concept of the proletariat became outdated, along with the very idea of class struggle. Then the manifest failure and odious tyranny of the 20th-century leftist revolutions carried out in the name of the working class — notably in Russia, China, and Cuba — undermined the appeal of the old revolutionary doctrines, no matter how desperately the Left argued that Communist tyrannies were an aberration, or a distortion of their vision.

Thus the ideology of the Left became anachronistic, even in western Europe, its birthplace and the source of its historical model. But the biggest change was the emergence of the United States as the most powerful, productive, and creative country in the world. It was always very hard for the Left to understand America, whose history, ideology, and sociology never fit the Left’s schemas. Even those who argued that there were class divisions in America had to admit that the "American proletariat" had no class consciousness. The political corollary was that there was never a Marxist mass movement in the United States. Every European country had big socialist parties and some had substantial Communist parties; the United States had neither. Indeed, most American trade unions were anti-Communist. As Seymour Martin Lipset and others have demonstrated, the central ideals of European socialism — which inspired many American leftist intellectuals — were contained in and moderated by the American Dream. America had very little of the class hatred that dominated Europe for so long; American workers wanted to get rich, and believed they could. Leftist Europeans — and the bulk of the American intellectual elite — believed that only state control by a radical party could set their societies on the road to equality.

The success of America was thus a devastating blow to the Left. It wasn’t supposed to happen. And American success was particularly galling because it came at the expense of Europe itself, and of the embodiment of the Left’s most utopian dream: the Soviet Union. Even those Leftists who had been outspokenly critical of Stalin’s "excesses" could not forgive America for bringing down the Soviet Empire, and becoming the world’s hyperpower. As Marx and Hegel would have understood, the first signs of hysterical anti-Americanism on the Left accompanied the presidency of Ronald Reagan. The resurgence of American economic power and the defeat of the Soviets exposed the failure of the Left to keep pace with the transformation of the world. The New York intellectual who proclaimed her astonishment at Reagan’s election by saying, "I don’t know a single person who voted for him," well described the dialectical process by which an entire set of ideas was passing into history.

The slow death of the Left was not limited to its failure to comprehend how profoundly the world had changed, but included elements that had been there all along, outside the purview of leftist thought. Marx was famously unable to comprehend the importance of religion, which he dismissively characterized as the "opiate of the masses," and the Left had long fought against organized religion. But America had remained a religious society, which both baffled and enraged the leftists. On the eve of the 2004 elections, some 40 percent of the electorate consisted of born-again Christians, and the world at large was in the grips of a massive religious revival, yet the increasingly isolated politicians and intellectuals of the Left had little contact and even less understanding of people of faith.

Unable to either understand or transform the world, the Left predictably lost its bearings. It was entirely predictable that they would seek to explain their repeated defeats by claiming fraud, or dissing their own candidates, or blaming the stupidity of the electorate. Their cries of pain and rage echo those of past elites who looked forward and saw the abyss. There is no more dramatic proof of the death of the Left than the passage of its central vision — global democratic revolution — into the hands of those who call themselves conservatives.
History has certainly not ended, but it has added a new layer to its rich compost heap.


3 posted on 12/02/2004 11:16:08 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Ideological gulf inflames Iran


IT TAKES a lot to unite the Iranians, but National Geographic magazine has pulled it off. Everyone from the most devout mullah to the most fervent moderniser is unanimous in a furious response to what was perceived as a perfidious attack on the country’s proud civilisation and long history.

The crime? The magazine added the words “Arabian Gulf” in brackets beneath “Persian Gulf” on a map to label the body of water that divides Iran from its Arab neighbours.

The American-owned magazine has been banned from sale in Iran pending a “correction” of the map and its reporters are barred from visiting the Islamic republic. “We will not accept the use of the term ‘Arabian Gulf’, which is contrary to United Nations documents,” Hossein Khoshvaght, the Iranian Culture Ministry’s head of foreign press affairs, said.

Under the headline “Persian Gulf Forever”, the hardline Tehran Times fulminated that National Geographic’s refusal to use only the waterway’s historic name was “an unscientific and politically motivated measure”. It detected the influence of “the US Zionist lobby and the oil dollars of certain Arab governments” behind the parenthetical aside.

The official outcry has been echoed in cyberspace, which has become a haven for liberal journalists and commentators after the hardline judiciary closed scores of reformist publications in the past four years. Keeping the world’s most vital oil waterway “Persian” is a national touchstone and a highly emotive issue.

Iranian bloggers at home and abroad orchestrated an eye-catching web action on the Google search engine. A search for the words “Arabian Gulf” triggers a spoof message: “The Gulf you are looking for does not exist. Try Persian Gulf.” In a parody of the text that usually appears when a webpage does not exist, it advises users to read “some history books”.

National Geographic refuses to back down. The publication recognises “Persian Gulf” as the “primary” name but says: “It has been the society’s cartographic practice to display a secondary name in parentheses when use of such a name has become commonly recognised. The society does not attempt to make judgments about the validity of such claims but accurately to acknowledge the existence of conflicting names.


4 posted on 12/02/2004 11:16:31 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn
It has been the society’s cartographic practice to display a secondary name in parentheses when use of such a name has become commonly recognised

Not that I've paid much attention, but I don't recall hearing that usage. Do you think "the society" is playing games?

5 posted on 12/02/2004 11:33:12 PM PST by GVnana (If I had a Buckhead moment would I know it?)
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To: DoctorZIn
SAID BY RUMMY:
He noted that Iran had a large population of young people and women who were dissatisfied with Iran's clerical rule.
"That is not a stable situation," he said.
"My hope is that over time we will see a shift in that country, just as we saw a shift from the shah to the ayatollah. It happened almost overnight," he said.

A Shift? Uh, yeah, we'll call it a "shift", heehee. Give the mullah's the shaft, and bring on the shift. Iran's leaders want to spread their mullah-madness world wide. God help these Iranians who understand the "preciousness" of real FREEDOM. Look at the Iranian FReeper who is fleeing for his life. That is wonderful that he's okay, but the poor soul has had to leave loved ones behind, not knowing if he will ever see them again. BRING ON THE SHIFT! And I pray that this one too, happens, to quote Rummy, "almost overnight."

6 posted on 12/03/2004 5:19:53 AM PST by Reborn
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To: Reborn

"Give the mullah's the shaft, and bring on the shift"

Great Line


On a personal note, Thanks so much for all your support.


7 posted on 12/03/2004 5:35:21 AM PST by nuconvert (Everyone has a photographic memory. Some don't have film.)
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To: DoctorZIn

The Gulf You Are Looking For Does Not Exist. Try Persian Gulf.

The gulf you are looking for is unavailable. No body of water by that name has ever existed. The correct name is Persian Gulf, which always has been, and will always remain, Persian.

Please try the following:

  • Click the By Arabian Gulf, do you mean Persian Gulf? button, and never try again.
  • If you typed Arabian Gulf, make sure you read some history books.
  • Click  Persian Gulf on Wiki Search to look for more information on the internet.


TRUTH 404- Gulf Not Found
Fact Explorer


 

8 posted on 12/03/2004 5:38:16 AM PST by nuconvert (Everyone has a photographic memory. Some don't have film.)
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To: DoctorZIn

Bump!


9 posted on 12/03/2004 7:58:18 AM PST by windchime (Won't it be great watching President Bush spend political capital?)
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To: DoctorZIn

Some 200 young men and women in Iran pledge willingness to carry out suicide attacks against Americans, Israelis

Thursday December 02, 2004
By NASSER KARIMI
Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) Some 200 masked young men and women gathered at a Tehran cemetery Thursday to pledge their willingness to carry out suicide bomb attacks against Americans in Iraq and Israelis.

The ceremony was organized by the Headquarters for Commemorating Martyrs of the Global Islamic Movement, a shadowy group that has since June been seeking volunteers for attacks in Iraq and Israel.

A spokesman, Ali Mohammadi, described the group meeting Thursday as the ``first suicide commando unit,'' though another official has claimed members already have carried out attacks in Israel.

``Sooner or later we will bury all blasphemous occupiers of Islamic lands,'' Mohammadi said.

On Sunday, Iran's deputy interior minister for security affairs told reporters the movement had no official sanction and said such groups could operate only ``as long as their ideas are limited to theory.'' The group, though, has the backing of some prominent hard-line Iranian politicians.

The deputy minister, Ali Asghar Ahmadi, did not say if the government had tried to crack down on the military style training the group claims to offer or whether officials believed any of its volunteers had crossed into Iraq or into Israel.

Iran has not had diplomatic relations with the United States since the 1979 Islamic revolution ousted the U.S.-backed shah. But Iran says it has no interest in fomenting instability in Iraq and it tries to block any infiltration into Iraq by insurgents while pleading that its porous borders are hard to police.

Iran portrays Israel as its main nemesis and backs anti-Israeli groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Wives, husbands and children accompanied volunteers to the cemetery, which was decorated with posters denouncing America and Israel.

``I joined the unit to fulfill my religious task for Palestine,'' said a volunteer who gave only his age 23.

Thursday's ceremony included the unveiling of 6-foot stone column commemorating a 1983 attack on U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon as a major ``suicide bombing operation against global blasphemy.''

In the early hours of Oct. 23, 1983, a truck carrying more than 2,000 pounds of explosives sped past a sentry post and exploded in the center of the barracks, killing 241 Marines. President Reagan ordered U.S. troops to withdraw from Lebanon a few months after the bombing.

In 2003, a U.S. federal judge blamed Iran for the attack and said Tehran would have to pay damages to survivors and relatives.


10 posted on 12/03/2004 10:05:41 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

China Grumbles Over US Sanctions on Firms Selling Weapons Know-How to Iran

Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - Washington's decision to impose sanctions on Chinese companies for selling weapons technology to Iran will not help bilateral non-proliferation cooperation, according to Beijing's foreign ministry.

The State Department has announced that four Chinese entities and a North Korean company would be subject to sanctions under the Iran Nonproliferation Act for selling weapons or weapons-related technology to Tehran.

Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue told a press briefing that China opposed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation and had taken steps to enhance law enforcement in that area. The government would act against any individual or company found to have been involved in illegal export activity, she said.

But the CIA says that, despite some improvements undertaken by China, some Chinese companies continued to be involved in proliferation activity.

One of the four Chinese entities, an individual named Q.C. Chen, has been under U.S. sanctions for various proliferation violations for years. In 1997, he was slapped with sanctions under different legislation for helping Iran's chemical weapons (CW) program by selling CW precursor chemicals, equipment and technology.

Two of the other companies cited by the State Department have also previously been penalized for transferring controlled items to Tehran.

And one of the newly identified offenders, a firm called the Liaoning Jiayi Metals and Minerals Company, is reported to be a Chinese state-run company.

"There are unrepentant proliferators out there, and it's going to require a concerted, sustained effort to fight them," State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said. "We're certainly not going to stand by idly while weapons proliferation programs are assisted."

Ereli said the U.S. would increase the pressure on violators through "sustained and high-level engagement" with Beijing.

The sanctions, which are valid for two years, prevent entities in the U.S. from doing any business with the targeted firms.

In a report to recently handed to Congress, the CIA said the Chinese government had in recent years improved its nonproliferation posture by committing itself to multilateral regimes and strengthening oversight mechanisms.

But at the same time, it said, "the proliferation behavior of Chinese companies remains of great concern."

During the period covered by the report -- July to December 2003 -- there was evidence that Chinese firms also provided dual-use CW-related equipment and know-how to Iran, the CIA said.

Chinese entities also continued to work with Iran on ballistic missile-related projects, thus helping Iran to move toward its goal of becoming self-sufficient in ballistic missile production.

Chinese firms had also provided dual-use missile-related items and raw materials to the Islamic Republic, and were a primary supplier of advanced conventional weapons as well.

In testimony before Congress last June, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control John Bolton said Iran had received help from companies in China, as well as Russia and North Korea, to develop and expand its ballistic missile program.

Iran was acquiring the means to produce ever more sophisticated and longer-range missiles, including missiles capable of delivering payloads to Western Europe or the U.S., Bolton warned.

The U.S. government also suspects that Iran has ambitions to be a nuclear weapons power, although Tehran insists that its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.

After Iran agreed in a deal with Britain, France and Germany to suspend its uranium enrichment program temporarily, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency early this week decided not to refer it to the Security Council, where it could have faced sanctions.

In a report released Thursday, an expert panel recommending United Nations reform said the international community needed to do more to reduce WMD threats.

Preventing the proliferation of such weapons must be an "urgent priority" for global security, the high-level panel said.


11 posted on 12/03/2004 10:09:14 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Iran to resume uranium enrichment

TEHRAN - Iran will resume enriching uranium after a maximum of six months, powerful former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani vowed on Friday, reaffirming that Tehran's freeze on nuclear fuel cycle work is only temporary.

"The last word is after this period, which I do not assume will exceed six months... we must seriously and firmly follow enrichment programmes and use the very important advantages of nuclear technology," he said.

"So far, we have reached the point that we accept to suspend parts of our activities for a period that was not necessary at all.

"Our negotiators have tried to shorten this period and we interpret it to be about two, three months up to six months," the prominent cleric said at Friday prayers.

Earlier this week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) spared Iran the fate of being referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions after Tehran agreed in a deal with Britain, France and Germany to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.

The United States accuses Iran of running a covert nuclear weapons programme, but the Islamic republic insists it only wants to enrich uranium to low levels, so as to produce fuel for a series of atomic power stations.

Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council, Iran's final arbiter on legislation, also had sharp words for the positions of the (IAEA) and Western countries during negotiations over the nuclear programme.

"We should be dissatisfied with them. They owe to us and have done injustice to us. Iran's activities are (allowed) under legal rights given to all countries to use nuclear technology for non-military purposes."

Referring to the US objection towards Iran's access to the fuel cycle, Rafsanjani, a potential runner for Iran's next presidential elections, said: "They are after the free home, oil reserves and this important geographical region, which have been taken from them after the Iran's Islamic revolution."

Iran is still zealously guarding its "right" under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to have a peaceful nuclear programme, including the full fuel cycle.

Top national security official and nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani had reaffirmed on Tuesday that Iran only agreed to the suspension for the duration of negotiations with the Europeans and that "it should be a question of months and not years.

But analysts say that while the deal averted a major international crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions for the time being, but the fundamental problem that Iran wants its very own nuclear fuel cycle still remains unsolved.

AFP


12 posted on 12/03/2004 10:16:15 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn
Friday, December 03, 2004

Iran Launches Large Military Exercise Near Iraqi Border

[Excerpt]
December 03, 2004
Dow Jones Newswires
AP


TEHRAN -- Iran 's army launched its largest military exercise Friday near the Iraqi border, state-run radio reported. Gen. Ali Salimi, the army's chief commander, was quoted as saying the "Followers of the Supreme Leader" exercises were "the biggest in the history of the army" in number of units and operations.

More than 120,000 air and ground troops were to take part in the war games across more than 100,000 square kilometers in five western provinces near the Iraqi border. It was not immediately clear why the location was chosen or how long the exercise would last.

Tanks, armored personnel carriers, jet fighters and helicopters will be deployed in the exercise, Gen. Amir Karimi, a spokesman, was quoted as saying. ...

13 posted on 12/03/2004 10:20:41 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: Pan_Yans Wife; fat city; freedom44; Tamsey; Grampa Dave; PhiKapMom; McGavin999; Hinoki Cypress; ...

Iran Launches Large Military Exercise Near Iraqi Border

[Excerpt]
December 03, 2004
Dow Jones Newswires
AP

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1293382/posts?page=13#13
14 posted on 12/03/2004 10:23:06 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: DoctorZIn

Head of U.N. Agency Defends Iran Dialogue

[ Excerpt] December 03, 2004
The Wall Street Journal
John Holland


Mohamed ElBaradei, at the center of the United Nations' efforts to monitor countries' nuclear-energy programs, portrays his agency as part "caring mother" to help nations take benign advantage of the technology and part detective to ensure purportedly peaceful programs aren't aimed at churning out arsenals of horrific weapons.

The Egyptian-born diplomat acknowledges playing that dual role as director general of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency makes him a lightning rod for critics who see the agency as either too lenient or too intrusive. "It's a very stressful job," he says. "I have been vilified by as many countries [as] have been subject to inspection," including Iraq, Iran and North Korea.

The U.S. has been among the IAEA's loudest critics, expressing skepticism most recently that Iran is acting in good faith after the agency earlier this week endorsed a European deal with Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment program. Mr. ElBaradei concedes a "confidence deficit" has been created by two decades of Tehran's secret work on a nuclear capability and less-than-full cooperation in the first year of IAEA inspections.

But Mr. ElBaradei, who has worked at the agency since 1984, seems determined to press on with the balancing act, saying he is "fairly open" to election to a third, four-year term as director general by the IAEA's 35-nation board and pledging to maintain strong ties with the second Bush administration. "The stakes are so high that we cannot afford to disagree," he says of the agency's relations with the U.S. "We must continue to work as partners." ...

Below is an edited transcript:

Why is there so much focus on Iran ?

Iran is a very important test case -- how verification and diplomacy work in tandem. I have always advocated that we need to use every possible way to resolve issues of concern regarding the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Confidence building means a variety of things and not just dialogue and exercising pressure. We should not think of coercive measures before we exhaust all possible ways of resolving issues. In many cases, confrontation is not the best option. It leads to the exact opposite to what you want to achieve.

We have made a lot of progress in Iran . The last 18 months the knowledge we have now in terms of the extent of the Iranian program is nothing compared to 18 months ago, and shows that inspection really works. But at the same time because the Iran program has been undeclared for almost two decades, Iran has not been fully cooperative for the first year of our inspection. We have a confidence deficit, and that's why the international community is concerned. We are still holding our horses before I can give you the assurance that everything in Iran is declared. I still need to do a lot of work in Iran before I can come to that conclusion. The more transparency and cooperation I see in Iran , the easier my job will be. But I am not jumping to the conclusion that because we have seen smoke, it is absolutely fire -- that because we have seen Iran developing the know-how in a clandestine way, this must be a nuclear-weapon program. We have not seen a clear proof that these activities are linked to a nuclear-weapon program. What we are saying is the jury is still out.

What do you say to critics who say dialogue with Iran won't work?

The dialogue between Iran and the Europeans deals with the causes of the symptoms that are our concern -- the need for social and economic development in Iran , the need for conventional technology and security. The discussion is how we can integrate Iran with Europe and the rest of the community, how we can address their security concern, how we can have a trade and cooperation agreement. In return, Iran will be asked to provide full transparency, full cooperation. Basically at the end of the day our objective is for Iran to feel secure enough and integrated enough and the rest of the world to feel secure enough that Iran is not trying to build a nuclear-weapon program.

But don't you also need a credible backup if that doesn't work?

Of course you can have the [United Nations] Security Council as a backup. If you conclude in a particular country -- and I am not talking about Iran -- that there is an imminent threat, a clear and present danger of using weapons of mass destruction, then you can obviously think of a pre-emptive action. But that pre-emptive action should be collective, in the Security Council, to have the legitimacy required. We are not there at all in the case of Iran , I think.

Unlike the situation in Iraq, if you use force simply because a country has a [nuclear-weapon] know-how, you will force a country to rebuild the program underground and have the goal of achieving a nuclear parity as an absolute national priority. I am not sure that the use of force at all in the case of Iran could be a solution. There is a sense of insecurity and isolation on the part of Iran and this sort of issue can only be resolved in a dialogue, where both parties put their concern on the table and find a solution. That is what the Europeans are trying to do. I hope that will work. I do not want to jump the gun. We can assess the situation a year from now and see how things are.

You cannot continue to have a club of nuclear-weapon states saying that we will keep our weapons but nobody else will have these weapons. I've always said a situation of "haves" and "have-nots" is not sustainable. Everybody will try to achieve parity because nuclear weapons are perceived around the globe as a source of power, prestige and deterrence. We need to build a system of collective security that does not have nuclear deterrence as a base. Until we do, we are going to have a lot of proliferation efforts.

Are we destined to have a world where most countries have a nuclear-weapon program and we have to get them to use it responsibly?

We are either going to have in the next 10-20 years, scores of countries sitting on either nuclear weapons or nuclear-weapon capability, or we are going to say this is not the kind of world we would like to live under -- this is really a recipe for our self destruction and let us try to see an alternative system of collective security where everybody feels secure and does not rely on nuclear weapons.

How do we achieve that?

That is a major challenge because we really haven't faced it so far. Many countries feel we have to rely on nuclear weapons because that has kept the peace since the second world war. It's a question of time before we face the possibility of a miscalculation, an accident, or a crazy leader using nuclear weapons. We have to understand that we have a major problem on our hands. We need to think differently in terms of how our global security is going to look like in the future.

Isolation is not the solution. That's simply a jolt to national pride [where people say] "we are isolated. Let us then huddle together and overcompensate." Usually with isolation, it's extremism from either the right or left that takes control.

16 posted on 12/03/2004 10:54:22 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn
Rafsanjani says Iran expected to join club of nuclear states soon

http://www.irna.ir/?SAB=OK&LANG=EN&PART=_HOME&TYPE=HP&id=200412031607330

Tehran, Dec 3, IRNA -- Tehran`s substitute Friday Prayers Leader Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said here today that Iran is expected to join the club of world states owning nuclear industries soon. Making the remark before thousands of worshipers who had gathered at Tehran University campus for the ritual, he made it clear that Tehran is in no way going to forsake its legal and international right to gain access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Outlining the developments in Iran`s nuclear case in the past two years, he said Iran was not unhappy with the performance of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as the west on Iranian nuclear dossier but stressed that "they have been doing wrong towards us because the Islamic Republic of Iran has been acting lawfully in gaining access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes."

The substitute prayers leader further said that Iran has agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment activities for a certain period of time- not to exceed six months- to ensure the IAEA on the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities. Rafsanjani, who is also the chief of Iran`s Expediency Council, went on to underline the fact that once the period is over Tehran is going to frankly pursue its uranium enrichment programs and also its efforts to achieve nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. However, he noted, "I absolutely offer the world the assurance that Tehran is not after nuclear arms but will not forsake its absolute right."

According to the stated regulations, he added, the IAEA has to assist the countries not currently owning nuclear technology to gain access to it. The law, he remarked, encouraged Iran to become a member of IAEA in order to enjoy its services and assistance. In spite of this, the IAEA has always tried to create obstacles for Iran and has now come to make remarks on what Tehran has accomplished all by itself, Rafsanjani added. Pointing out that in the past two years Iran has step by step opened the doors to IAEA inspectors to assure them of the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities, Rafsanjani said the IAEA has only recently admitted that Iran`s nuclear activities have not been diverted towards military objectives. Describing this as a "success" for the country, Rafsanjani referred to the threats to refer Iran`s case to the UN Security Council and imposing sanctions against Tehran as examples of the threats Iran has been facing in the past two harsh years. He noted that Iran`s nuclear case is presently at a stage that it is admitted now that Iran could have its nuclear fuel cycle with Iran accepting to suspend its nuclear activities in a gesture to deflate the threats.

He said Iranian negotiators have been acting according the Islamic system`s decision and nobody could be blamed in this connection. Rafsanjani also asserted that Iran was not by any means after nuclear arms but was never to forsake its legal rights. He further commented on situation in Iraq and said the best solution for Iraqi crisis is the holding of election, formation of a national and Islamic Assembly so that the Constitution is compiled and aliens play no role in Iraq. The Friday prayers leader recommended the Iraqi nation to keep its vigilance and safeguard its unity in a bid to regain the management of the country from the hands of occupying forces.

On Palestine, he expressed his hope that Palestinian leaders are vigilant enough not to let their internal differences turn into a civil war. He further turned to outstanding potential of Iran`s navy forces and said no other forces could ever rival the might of Iranian navy in the region. Rafsanjani pointed out that even in days of imposed war against Iran by Iraqi invaders, the Iranian navy managed to provide and maintain security in the Persian Gulf the coast of which entails world`s richest oil and gas sources including the South Pars region which contains 10 percent of world`s gas resources.

Referring to the very remarkable achievements of Iran`s marine industries, he said Iranian experts are now capable of building and installing multi thousand-tons grand platforms and remarked that Iranian oil companies now have the ability to enter competitions with world biggest ones.

comments: This is straight from the horse's mouth. Time to take them out.
17 posted on 12/03/2004 11:26:47 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: Coop; Cap Huff; Dog; Boot Hill; jeffers; POA2

Philip Coggan: Biggest surprises
Published: December 3 2004 19:01 | Last updated: December 3 2004 19:01

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/855c9722-455d-11d9-8fcf-00000e2511c8.html

How will you cope with a US attack on Iran?The biggest surprises for markets tend to come out of nowhere. Is it possible that the big issue to concern investors in 2005 will be a US attack on Iran?

Few people are discussing the issue. They seem to feel that the Bush administration has enough on its plate with Iraq and would not have the resources, or the will, to mount an invasion of another hostile Muslim country.

Probably not. But an attack does not mean an invasion. The US could mount air strikes to try to eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities or it could encourage Israel to do so. Twenty years ago, Israel attacked a nuclear power plant in Iraq.

Even those who have thought about the Iranian issue may still think an attack unlikely. After all, this week Iran reached an agreement with European nations that was endorsed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran has suspended its nuclear enrichment programme.

But suspension does not equal cancellation, and previous agreements have foundered and the US has expressed its reservations about the Europe-Iran deal.

Why might the US attack next year? The rationale seems to have three elements. The first is that the US believes Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and that the Europeans will be too ineffectual to stop them. In the aftermath of the September 11 2001 attacks, the US simply cannot tolerate the risk that a hostile power might either launch attacks against it, or (more likely) pass to terrorists weapons suitable for such attacks. Since Iran has been defined by the US as part of the "axis of evil", a group of nations willing to support terrorism, it is seen as vital that it does not develop nuclear capability. The US would have the right to make a pre-emptive attack on these grounds.

The second rationale is that Iran has been playing a part in destabilising Iraq by supporting the resistance there. Keep Iran in check and the task of tidying up Iraq will be made easier.

The third rationale is that the neo-conservatives at the heart of the Bush administration believe that the previous policy of laissez faire with regard to Middle East regimes has proved a failure. The US is perceived in the region as propping up corrupt governments. In the long run, the US should aim for democracy because that would be more stable (and a good thing). And the neocons may only have four more years to bring about Middle East reform.

It seems unlikely that an attack would happen early in the year. The agreement with Europe will need to break down and it will take time for the US administration to build up its case for acting. But, of course, markets normally anticipate events and investors will certainly adjust their behaviour if US sabre-rattling starts.

What would happen to financial markets in the face of an attack, or indeed speculation about an attack? The likely beneficiary would be government bonds, particularly Treasuries; one investment banker suggested to me that 10-year Treasury bond yields could drop to 3.5 per cent.

The fall in yields would not just be caused by the "safe haven" appeal of Treasuries. Conflict in Iran, a leading oil producer, would also lead to a spike in the price of crude. As we have seen this year, investors now regard oil price rises as a tax on global growth; good for bonds but bad for equities. Stock markets would undoubtedly wobble in the event of a conflict.

All this might seem like scaremongering. But it is a real possibility. I recall writing in March 2002 about the possibility of war with Iraq. In those innocent days, oil had edged up to $25 a barrel but equity markets seemed unconcerned; many investors dismissed the idea that war could happen. By the end of 2002, and the start of 2003, investors were thinking of little else.

What are the chances of an attack this time? Republican strategist Jim Pinkerton said a few weeks ago that he thought action against Iran was likely in 2005. And there are no signs as yet that President Bush's second term foreign policy would be any more emollient than his first. Perhaps the likelihood is less than 50-50 but it is certainly not negligible.

Iran may not be the only geopolitical risk facing investors. David Murrin, chief investment officer of the hedge fund group Emergent Asset Management, warns that the risks of a nuclear incident have been underestimated.

During the cold war, a delicate balance of power prevented any nation from using its weapons. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the risk was assumed to have disappeared completely. But while the risk of a cataclysmic world war may have vanished, the dangers of small-scale conflict have increased.

More nations are acquiring nuclear weapons, with Pakistan and North Korea joining the club in recent years. As the example of Iran may show, other nations would like to. Indeed, they may see it as the best protection against a more aggressive US foreign policy. Note the more cautious approach of the US towards North Korea, another member of the "axis of evil". Because weaponry is more widespread, the balance is more fragile and the risk of conflict (or use by terrorists) has increased. A United Nations panel said this week there was the threat of a "cascade of proliferation" and urged the Security Council to pledge collective action against the trend.

Murrin admits that there is not much investors can do about this risk. It is one of those big events that has a very small chance of occurring at any particular time, but that has a big impact when it does. The underlying idea is that geopolitical risks have increased since the 1990s, something that has become clear since September 11. It is not just the threat of terrorism that is destabilising, but the reaction of the US (and others) towards it.

In the circumstances, investors should be chary of becoming over-exposed to risky assets and should retain a solid proportion of safe haven assets (government bonds, conventional and index-linked, even a bit of gold) in their portfolios.


18 posted on 12/03/2004 11:35:12 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: All
more about IRAN STAGES NEW ROUND OF MILITARY EXERCISES.

Brigadier General Nasir Mohammadifar, commander of Iran's regular ground forces, announced on 2 December that the country's biggest-ever military exercises will begin on 3 December, state radio reported. Codenamed "Followers of the Rule of the Supreme Jurisprudent" (Payrovan-i Vilayat), the exercises will take place in the southwestern provinces of Hamedan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Khuzestan, and Luristan. Mohammadifar said participants in the exercises will include airborne technicians, artillery units, missile units, and electronic warfare units. Rather than emphasizing conventional warfare, Mohammadifar said, asymmetric warfare will be employed. The purpose of this, according to the state radio, is "so that constant blows will be imposed on the enemy, without the enemy knowing from where the blows are coming." Naval war games took place in the Persian Gulf in late-November, and officials said these emphasized asymmetric warfare. BS

source:RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 8, No. 226, Part III, 3 December 2004
19 posted on 12/03/2004 11:50:59 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: AdmSmith
IRANIAN CONSERVATIVES UNDECIDED ON A CANDIDATE.

The hard-line Islamic Coalition Party's secretary-general, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, said on 2 December in Tabriz that his organization will not back a candidate other than the one backed by the overall "fundamentalist trend," IRNA reported. Habibi said the most important thing in the upcoming presidential election is a high public turnout. "Opinion polls show that [Ayatollah Ali-Akbar] Hashemi-Rafsanjani is ahead of [Ali-Akbar] Velayati, [Mahmud] Ahmadinejad, and [Ali] Larijani, and he can win the presidential election if he decides to enter the election race," Hojatoleslam Ali-Akbar Fallahian-Khuzestani said during a question-and-answer session at the Al-Hadi seminary in Qom on 2 December, Fars News Agency reported. Fallahian said Tehran Mayor Ahmadinejad is a competent official who is viewed more favorably that Velayati or Larijani, but the conservatives have not decided whether to back or reject his candidacy. If Hashemi-Rafsanjani decides against being a candidate, Fallahian speculated, then the conservatives probably will back Velayati. BS

comment The problem is that IRI is running out of time. If they plan to have an election in May or June with the "new" president Rafsanjani making a grand bargain with the West, it might be too late. They have to make this bargain sooner perhaps in January! Otherwise they will be toast.
20 posted on 12/03/2004 11:56:54 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: AdmSmith

Sorry, the source for the article is RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 8, No. 226, Part III, 3 December 2004


21 posted on 12/03/2004 11:58:09 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: DoctorZIn

Bump!


22 posted on 12/03/2004 12:33:33 PM PST by windchime (Won't it be great watching President Bush spend political capital?)
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To: DoctorZIn

If they are making a lot of mistakes, eventually they may make the one that brings us to the clarity of war. Is there any chance that a revolution, if they get it up to actually do that, would be anything but Communist?


23 posted on 12/03/2004 12:37:29 PM PST by RightWhale (Destroy the dark; restore the light)
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To: DoctorZIn

Tel Aviv Notes, No. 117 December 22, 2004

Under heavy European pressure and a threat to refer the Iranian nuclear issue to the UN Security Council, Iran has backed down -- at least temporarily. In late November, Iran and the British, French and German governments concluded an agreement regarding Iran's suspected nuclear activities. According to that agreement, Iran will suspend all its enrichment activities, especially "the manufacture and import of gas centrifuges and their components; the assembly, installation, testing or operation of gas centrifuges; work to undertake any plutonium separation; or to construct or operate any plutonium separation; and all tests or production at any uranium conversion installation." The suspension will remain in effect while negotiations on a new long-term agreement continue between the European governments and Iran. Those negotiations will begin in December 2004 and will cover nuclear, technological, economic and security issues. Meanwhile, Iran has announced that the suspension has begun and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that announcement.

The new agreement has deferred the crisis stemming from Iranian nuclear activities. It reflects Iran's sensitivity to its international posture. It also signals that Iran prefers to back down when it faces a unified international front and a threat of economic sanctions and perhaps military action, as well. More importantly, the suspension, if protracted, might prolong, once again, the timetable for Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb.

At the same time, however, the new agreement has clear deficiencies. First of all, it is obvious that the agreement is no more than a temporary one. It speaks about the suspension of the nuclear activities, not their end. It explicitly presents the suspension as a "voluntary confidence-building measure and not a legal obligation." And following the conclusion of the agreement, the Iranians have emphasized that they will never put a definitive end to their nuclear program.

Although the suspension has no time limit, its duration is directly linked to the duration of the upcoming negotiations between Iran and the European governments. These negotiations are expected to be difficult and will include sensitive nuclear issues. Hence, if negotiations collapse, Iran can claim the right to end the suspension. In fact, the Iranians speak about a suspension of no more than several months.

Thirdly, Iran concluded a similar, though less comprehensive suspension agreement with the Europeans in October 2003, and then violated it in June 2004. At that time, the Iranians claimed that the Europeans had not kept their promise to remove the issue from the IAEA's agenda. The same sort of claim could be raised again.

Thus, there is a good reason to expect that sooner or later, Iran will resume its suspected nuclear activities. Furthermore, there are no indications that Iran has made a strategic decision to change course and abandon its quest for a nuclear weapon. All the indications are that this latest agreement is a tactical move on the part of Iran, aimed at easing the pressure on it and driving a wedge between the European and American governments. For that reason, it should also be assumed that Iran already has clandestine nuclear sites, in which it continues its activities.

This assumption is shared by the latest report of the IAEA Director General to his Board of Governors. That report begins with a summary of the findings of the inspectors of Iran's nuclear program. In detailing the findings, the IAEA spells out the many cases of concealment, delay in allowing site-access (apparently until after concealment activities at the site are completed), and failure to report, declare, or provide information. There are still many issues (such as the origin of highly enriched uranium particles) that remain unresolved to the satisfaction of the inspectors. These "breaches," to use the term employed by the IAEA, are by themselves sufficient grounds for declaring Iran to be in non-compliance with its NPT obligations. The reasons for not doing so are purely political.

Furthermore, the report states that "The Agency is not yet in a position to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran. The process of drawing such a conclusion is normally a time consuming process." However, there is no logical basis for that sort of assertion, certainly not in a vast country like Iran, ruled by the type of regime now in power. Investigative verification can only state that no indications have been found attesting to the presence of illicit materials and activities. It is not possible to verify the absence of undeclared materials or activities, and by claiming the converse, the IAEA is misleading the world.

It is therefore not surprising that the Bush administration seems to be very suspicious of the European-Iranian agreement and has taken steps to increase the pressure on Iran in recent days. President Bush himself blamed Iran for speeding up "processing of materials that could lead to a nuclear weapon." And Secretary of State Colin Powell has stated that US intelligence agencies believe that Iran is working on ways to modify missiles to carry nuclear warheads.

Even if only some of the new information regarding Iran's activities is proven to be accurate, the international community will find itself on a collision course with Iran. The crisis can only be postponed if the present atmosphere of dialogue prevails. If Iran is indeed advancing toward the acquisition of nuclear weapons, as seems to be the case, there will come a time when no non-military international action can turn back the wheel. That situation can be avoided only by continuing pressure of other sorts. But except for the supply of nuclear fuel for power reactors - on the condition that irradiated fuel is sent outside Iran for reprocessing - any of the other inducements currently under consideration will only constitute a reward for non-compliance.

Published by TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY
The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies & The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies through the generosity of Sari and Israel Roizman, Philadelphia

Plus:

Must Read Iranian Military Analysis

Requires:

.


24 posted on 12/03/2004 5:18:15 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Iran bought metal useable in atomic bombs-diplomats

03 Dec 2004 16:26:20 GMT
Source: Reuters
(Adds IAEA spokeswoman)

By Louis Charbonneau

VIENNA, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Intelligence reports accuse Iran of buying large amounts of a metal that has many civilian uses but which some U.S. and other countries' officials believe Tehran wanted exclusively for an atomic bomb, diplomats say.

Washington says oil-rich Iran is developing atomic weapons under cover of a nuclear energy programme. Tehran denies this, insisting its atomic ambitions are limited to the peaceful generation of electricity.

One non-U.S. diplomat, citing intelligence gathered by his country, said Iran bought "huge amounts of beryllium from a number of countries" but gave no details on the amount or states involved.

Beryllium has a long list of innocent uses, such as in spark plugs and X-ray equipment. However, the metal can also be combined with polonium-210 (Po-210), a substance Iran is known to have worked with, to initiate the chain reaction in a bomb.

Other diplomats and one U.S. official -- all speaking on condition of anonymity -- said they had intelligence Iran had acquired and worked with beryllium.

They also said the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency knew about it but had withheld the information from the IAEA board of governors.

This has annoyed the United States, whose officials have complained privately that IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei does not always follow up credible intelligence provided to his agency.

"The U.S. is often making mischief, but they obviously really believe there's something there," David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and head of a Washington-based think-tank told Reuters about the beryllium question.

BERYLLIUM IN SPEECH TO IAEA

The head of the U.S. delegation to the IAEA, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, brought up beryllium in a speech to the IAEA board of governors this week.

"We still wonder whether Iran ever worked with beryllium, which combined with Po-210 forms a neutron source that can be used for initiating a nuclear weapon," Jackie Sanders said.

"Iranian officials have claimed in the past that Iran never procured or worked with beryllium. We wonder whether the IAEA has found evidence suggesting otherwise."

This week the IAEA board rejected U.S. demands that Iran be referred to the U.N. Security Council for economic sanctions and passed an EU-sponsored resolution calling on Iran to freeze sensitive parts of its atomic programme, while noting that the freeze was "voluntary" and "non-binding".

Observers say the beryllium issue could help Washington persuade the IAEA board Iran is trying to produce an atomic bomb.

If it is determined ElBaradei knew Iran had worked with beryllium it could undermine his attempt to be re-elected as the agency's chief. He has said he would seek a third term but the United States opposes that.

EARLY DRAFT

Washington hardliners, diplomats in Vienna say, see ElBaradei as soft on Iran and deliberately undermining their attempt to push the IAEA board to get tough on Tehran.

One non-U.S. diplomat, who did not hide his desire to see ElBaradei out of his job, gave Reuters a three-page memorandum that said Tehran's work with beryllium was mentioned in an early draft of the IAEA's September report on inspections in Iran but was later removed after the Iranians objected.

"This early draft contained issues that later were not included in the final report, such as the beryllium issue, which was omitted after negotiations between the Iranians and ElBaradei," the document said, citing sources with "proven access" inside the IAEA.

Other diplomats confirmed the deletion from the draft. It was also not included in the IAEA's November report.

IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said many issues are included in early drafts but fail to meet the tough threshold of the final report. "There are all kinds of technical details in first drafts which are later removed. That's part of the drafting process," she said.


25 posted on 12/03/2004 5:21:26 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Iran, China to exchange expertise on aerospace technology

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Friday, December 3, 2004

Iran has signed a satellite cooperation accord with China in a development that could accelerate Teheran's intermediate- and long-range missile programs, U.S. officials said.

On Wednesday, the State Department imposed sanctions on four Chinese and one North Korean entity for missile exports to Iran. Some of the entities have already come under U.S. sanctions.

Iran and China signed a memorandum of understanding meant to improve aerospace and satellite cooperation. Under the MoU, China would exchange expertise in the area of satellites and aerospace technology and sciences, Middle East Newsline reported.

[On Thursday, the Paris-based National Council of Resistance, the leading group opposed to the Teheran regime, held a briefing to discuss Iran's intermediate- and long-range ballistic missile programs. The council said Iran was developing a solid-fuel missile with a range of 2,500 kilometers and tipped with a nuclear warhead.]

The official Iranian news agency, Irna, reported that the MoU was signed in Beijing on Nov. 30

The agency said the accord – signed by Iranian Space Agency director Hassan Shafti and Chinese National Space Agency director Lae-on Soon – was meant to consolidate bilateral cooperation in the field of aerospace technology and sciences.

"Under the MoU, the two sides are to use aerospace technology for peaceful purposes, particularly telecommunication and research satellites," Irna said.

Shafti headed an Iranian delegation that discussed Beijing's assistance to Teheran's satellite program. Iran was said to be preparing to launch three satellites in 2005 and has been discussing cooperation with France and Russia. This week, a Russian delegation held talks with Iranian officials on reviving the Zohreh communications satellite program.

During the visit to Beijing, the Iranian delegation toured several Chinese centers for science, research and aerospace technology. China plans to send more than 100 satellites into orbit by 2020.

Over the last two years, the United States has imposed sanctions on a range of Chinese companies accused of sending missile components and technology to Iran. The Bush administration has regarded Iran's satellite program as a cover for its intermediate- and long-range ballistic missile programs.


26 posted on 12/03/2004 5:24:54 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn
This thread is now closed.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

27 posted on 12/03/2004 10:36:00 PM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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