Posted on 04/01/2005 3:01:49 PM PST by DannyTN
"Super volcano" could dwarf Indonesia's earthquake catastrophes: expert
Fri Apr 1,12:21 AM ET Science - AFP
SYDNEY (AFP) - As Indonesians struggled to recover from the second deadly earthquake to strike them in three months, an Australian expert warned the country faced the prospect of a "super volcano" eruption that would dwarf all previous catastrophes.
AFP/File Photo
Professor Ray Cas of Monash University's School of Geosciences said the world's biggest super volcano was Lake Toba, on Indonesia's island of Sumatra, site of both the recent massive earthquakes.
Cas told Australian media Friday that Toba sits on a faultline running down the middle of Sumatra -- just where some seismologists say a third earthquake might strike following the 9.0 magnitude quake on December 26 and Monday's 8.7 temblor.
Those quakes occurred along faultlines running just off Sumatra's west coast and created seismological stresses which could hasten an eruption.
Cas said Toba last erupted 73,000 years ago in an event so massive that it altered the entire world's climate.
"The eruption released 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of ash and rock debris into the atmosphere, much of it as fine ash which blocked out solar radiation, kicking the world back into an ice age," he said.
The scientist said super volcanos represented the greatest potential hazard on earth, "the only greater threat being an asteroid impact from space".
"A super volcano will definitely erupt," he said.
"It could be in a few, 50 or another 1000 years but sooner or later one is going to go off."
Other super volcanos are found in Italy, South America, the United States and New Zealand -- where Mount Taupo could be ready for eruption.
"It has a big eruption every 2,000 years, and it last erupted about 2,000 years ago," Cas said.
The potential death toll from a super volcano eruption "could reach the hundreds of thousands to millions and there are serious implications on climate, weather and viability of food production," Cas said.
"The big problem is a lot of the volcanoes that potentially could erupt are perhaps not monitored to the degree that they should be, and of course we learnt that lesson from the Boxing Day tsunami disaster," he said.
Here are a few links to the population bottleneck studies. Not proved of course but it would be difficult to prove this kind of thing. The best proof is still in our DNA.
http://www.everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=1420924
http://www.andaman.org/book/app-r/ch5_bottleneck/textr5.htm
http://www.jqjacobs.net/anthro/paleo/bottleneck.html
http://www.human-evol.cam.ac.uk/Members/Students/jones.htm
http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/evolution/
There is an "X" gene that only some Europeans and American Indians have...no-one in between. The Toba explosion broke the link.
I haven't searched for online geology texts. A non-technical paperback that details catastophic earth events, including Yellowstone, is "Agents of Chaos" by Stephen L. Harris, 1990, Mountain View Press. It explains how plate tectonics drive earthquakes and volcanoes, studying in detail various geological disasters in the American West.
There was an explosion of human branches after the Toba eruption and a lesser one again after the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM). I believe it was the LGM that caused Mongoloids and Caucasian to be defined from a common source...and, IMO, that source was the Jomon - Ainu people who dominated most of Asia 18-21,000 years ago.
Nah. It's over due. It erupted 640,000 years ago.
Yellowstone National Park is one such Super Volcano.
"it's alarmist and never going to happen"
or
"remember Krakatoa?"
for both sets of commenters, contemplate this little picture:
Now the Toba eruption they mention, 75,000 years ago, put out 2800 cubic kilometers (672 cubic miles), making it larger than the largest Yellowstone eruption on the graphic above.
| Cubic Mi | Cubic KM | ||
| Toba | 75000 | 671.8 | 2,800 |
| Yellowstone | 2,000,000 | 600 | 2,501 |
| Yellowstone | 630,000 | 240 | 1,000 |
| Island Park | 1,300,000 | 67 | 279.27 |
| Tambora | 190 | 36 | 150.05 |
| Mazama | 7,600 | 18 | 75.03 |
| Krakatau | 122 | 4.3 | 17.92 |
| Pinatubo | 14 | 2.4 | 10 |
| St. Helens | 25 | 0.24 | 0.83 |
I think we might want to pay attention to this.
I think we might stop comparing it to Kraktoa (Krakatau).
Nevertheless; the fears I hear being expressed I think go beyond all of this toward a contemplation of a Near Extinction Event with multiple volcanic eruptions throughout this region where I live.
Eighteen Hundred And Froze To Death (The Infamous 'Year Without Summer')
Yep, when that sucker hits we will all just jump in our cars and start scooting around til we deplete the ozone layer. According to the wackos, if we all work together we could get it done in about a week.
It'll be the day after the next Christian holiday-Junior
In Exodus, the tenth plague of the firstborne of Egypt dying was tied to Pharoah's decree that the firstborne of Israel would die.
Now we have a Mullah claiming that the US will be destroyed in 2007 by tsunami's. This super volcano wouldn't hurt the US as much as it could hurt the Muslim states.
Junior, The next big Christian holiday is Thanksgiving but just in the US, but Christmas is worldwide. I can't think of any other Christian holidays that would compare in scope to Christmas and Easter.
I have another "stupid question". This caldera that was mentioned earlier, can you and I be sitting on one right now and not even know it?
That might work to prevent a buildup of explosive gas, but once you open it, the lava will flow. I'm not sure whether there would be a net reduction in gasses and ash released or not. The nuke might just add to the mess. But it's an idea worth pursuing.
I agree with you.
If a scientist had said that he believed a huge earthquake was due and a giant tsunami would kill over 200,000 people, I'm sure many freepers would have laughed at him too.
Good luck
The movie worked quite well on my dialup.
Here is a little more on the lunar recession and the Moon itself:
Ok, let us take a look at the Moon. :-)
1) How was it formed, 2) what is it made of, and 3) how far away is it are some of the questions that we can begin to answer.
1) How was the Moon formed?
There were at least five major ideas that were proposed as to the formation of the Moon.
Fission – The Moon split off from the Earth.
Capture – The Moon was captured by the gravity of the Earth.
Condensation – The Moon coalesced out of the same “stuff” the Earth did.
Colliding Planetesimals – Formed from colliding Planetesimals during the early formation of the solar system.
Collision – A body collided with the Earth causing a piece of the Earth’s crust to form the Moon from a resultant ring produced by that collision
The evidence points to the collision theory. First, the Moon does not have an iron core. This pretty much rules out that it coalesced from the same cloud of debris that the Earth did. Second, throughout the solar system, the oxygen isotopes have been found to be different. If the Moon were captured, it too would not match the Earth’s oxygen isotope ratio (which it does). Fourth, by looking at the angular momentum and energy required, the theory that the Moon spun off the Earth after the Earth formed does not hold up.
This leaves us with the Collision theory as the best model we have for the formation of the Moon. The resultant collision caused a ring of debris from the Earths crust to form outside the Roche limit. If it had not, tidal forces would have not allowed for the Moon we see today.
A more in depth discussion of tidal locking since the Moon is tidal locked to the Earth. The reason the Moon keeps one face to the Earth (Its rotation on its axis matches the period of its orbit) is it is tidally locked to the Earth. Here is a more in depth explanation. The total angular momentum of the earth moon system, which is spin angular momentum plus the orbital angular momentum, is constant. (The Sun plays apart also) Friction of the oceans caused by the tides is causing the Earth to slow down a tiny bit each year. This is approximately two milliseconds per century causing the moon to recede by about 3.7 centimeters per year. As the Earth slows down, the Moon must recede to keep the total angular momentum a constant. In other words as the spin angular momentum of the earth decreases, the lunar orbital angular momentum must increase. Here is an interesting side note. The velocity of the moon will slow down as the orbit increases.
Another example of tidal locking is the orbit period and rotation of the planet Mercury. What is interesting about this one is that instead of a 1:1 synchronization where Mercury would keep one face to the Sun at all times, it is actually in a 2/3:1 synchronization. This is due to the High eccentricity of its orbit.
There also can be more than one body “locked” to each other. Lets take a look at the moon Io. Io is very nearly the same size as the Earth’s moon. It is approximately 1.04 times the size of the moon. There is a resonance between Io, Ganymede, and Europa. Io completes four revolutions for every one of Ganymede and two of Europa. This is due to a Laplace Resonance phenomenon. A Laplace Resonance is when more than two bodies are forced into a minimum energy configuration.
2) What is the Moon made of?
From here:
http://lunar.arc.nasa.gov/science/geochem.htm
“Primary elements: The lunar crust is composed of a variety of primary elements, including uranium, thorium, potassium, oxygen, silicon, magnesium, iron, titanium, calcium, aluminum and hydrogen. When bombarded by cosmic rays, each element bounces back into space its own radiation, in the form of gamma rays. Some elements, such as uranium, thorium and potassium, are radioactive and emit gamma rays on their own. However, regardless of what causes them, gamma rays for each element are all different from one another -- each produces a unique spectral "signature," detectable by an instrument called a spectrometer. A complete global mapping of the Moon for the abundance of these elements has never been performed.
Hydrogen and helium: Because its surface is not protected by an atmosphere, the Moon is constantly exposed to the solar wind, which carries both hydrogen and helium -- each potentially very valuable resources. One natural variant of helium, [3]helium, is the ideal material to fuel fusion reactions. When scientists develop a more thorough understanding of fusion, and can practically implement such reactions, the Moon will be a priceless resource, since it is by far the best source of [3]helium anywhere in the Solar System.”
This pretty much answers the question; are there valuable materials up there?
3) What is the distance to the Moon?
The mean distance to the Moon is approximately 238,800 miles. From past experience, we can design spacecraft to get there in about three days. This is far shorter than the months the early voyages took to the new world.
Final thoughts on the Moon.
So here we have this tremendous resource at our fingertips. Unfortunately (not unlike the early explorers), the initial cost is staggering. However, in the long run it would end up being an invaluable resource for both material and scientific study. One of the big advantages is that the Moon keeps one side facing the Earth. This minimizes communication problems between the two bodies. Also since the backside of the Moon is shielded from the Earth, it would be an ideal spot to place a radio telescope array.
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