Posted on 07/02/2005 1:06:54 AM PDT by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Iran talks likely to fail, say EU diplomats
By Daniel Dombey in Brussels
Published: June 30 2005 03:00 | Last updated: June 30 2005 03:00European diplomats are preparing for a breakdown of their negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme in a sign of mounting pessimism following the election last week of conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.
Although Britain, France and Germany still intend to keep their promise to put forward new compromise proposals to Iran by the beginning of August, some of the countries' diplomats now have little expectation that any deal will be accepted by Tehran.
The focus of efforts by the so-called "EU3" will be to win the ensuing "blame game" should the talks collapse. A priority will be to put forward proposals that go just far enough in meeting Tehran's concerns that they will allow Iran to be blamed if they are rejected.
The proposals are likely to include guarantees of nuclear fuel supply for Iran (if the technical details can be worked out); offers of technical assistance similar to a 1990s agreement between the US and North Korea; and encouragement of contacts between Iran and neighbouring countries in an attempt to defuse Tehran's security concerns.
But similar ideas have not been acceptable to Tehran in the past. "It is not exactly as if these will be completely new proposals, but they will be much more detailed and global," said a French diplomat.
A difficult foreign ministers meeting in Geneva last month cast light on the gulf between the two parties. Iran insists its nuclear programme is wholly peaceful, while the EU3 say Iran's record of concealment means it should suspend activities related to uranium enrichment, which can create weapons-grade material.
The three European countries say their attempt to solve the issue through negotiation has kept the international community unified while putting a hold on the Iranian programme, since Tehran agreed to freeze enrichment activity in an agreement last year in Paris.
But some diplomats concede the freeze may help Iran mollify its critics, while international unity is looking tenuous. China is strengthening its ties with Tehran, while the US has stepped up its rhetoric against the Islamic republic.
EU officials say they are aware that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad will not have a decisive role to play in formulating nuclear policy, but are nonetheless pessimistic on how his victory will influence Washington's attitude towards the talks. Some believe it will reduce US support for negotiations, and several say Washington's support for negotiations has already noticeably declined.
"It may now be more difficult for the Europeans to convince the Americans to go further in helping out," said one EU official.
If the Iranians reject the EU3 proposals and resume their programme, breaking the Paris agreement, the EU will push for a series of re- solutions at the International Energy Agency,
United Nations nuclear watchdog, and ultimately the UN Security Council itself, officials said.
At first, such resolutions would call on Iran to freeze activity once again, while ultimately they would try to give the Paris agreement - and the suspension of uranium enrichment - the force of international law. "The first step will have to be the IAEA," said another European diplomat. "The basis for initial discussion in both the IAEA board and also the UN Security Council, if it gets there, will inevitably be the Paris agreement."
It is far from certain that the EU3 would win a consensus on the 35-member IAEA board, which includes such countries as China, Russia and Venezuela. Some European officials also believe Iran would try to escape censure by resuming its nuclear programme in a piecemeal fashion at first.
One fear is that such a diplomatic impasse could encourage hawks in the US or Israel to argue for airstrikes against Iran - an outcome the EU3 desperately want to avoid.
- The Associated Press reported that President Bush said the allegation by former hostages raises many questions.
- FreeGanji.blogspot.com published a translation of Ganji's most recent letter since he has returned to prison.
- Yahoo News reported that Iran's most prominent jailed dissident, journalist Akbar Ganji, is still on a hunger strike and his health is deteriorating rapidly.
- Voice of America reported Secretary of State Condoleezza Ricesaid the people of the Middle East are at a "moment of transformation" which is very fragile, and still has committed enemies, particularly the government of Iran.
- Spiegel reported that Ahmadinejad has been accused of being involved in the 1980 American hostage crisis. Former hostage David Roeder,the former Assistant Air Force Attache said that, he threatened to kidnap his son and cut off his fingers and toes. "You don't forget someone like that.
- Eli Lake, NY Sun reported that a new book alleges that the CIA was warned of a plot to attack New York and Washington by a walk-in Iranian defector a month and a half before September 11, 2001, but the potentially valuable informant was turned away.
- RTBF Radio 1 reported a meeting with an Iranian parliamentary delegation at the Belgian Senate planned for today has been cancelled, as was a dinner at the House. The reason is the refusal of the president of the Iranian assembly to shake hands with a woman,
- Radio Free Europe said that an analysis of the election results reveal what appear to be glaring irregularities and raises questions.
- Iranian blogger, Mr.Bedhi said, Rumours are everywhere anticipating the upcoming retreat to the atmosphere of early revolution.
- SMCCDI published a Public Letter for the attention of G-8 summit in Scotland.
- The Associated Press reported the White House said it is taking seriously the allegations of some former American hostages.
- Yahoo! News reported Ahmadinejad hailed his election triumph as a new Islamic revolution that could spread throughout the world.
- The Financial Times reported the US is threatening severe financial penaltiesagainst any foreign companies or individuals that do business with the government agency that operates Iran's civilian nuclear program.
- Reuters reported a lunch meeting between a leading parliamentarian in elgium and counterparts from Iran has been cancelled because the beer-loving Belgian could not stomach a ban on alcohol.
- The Guardian reported that five former American hostages say Iran's new leader was a captor.
- And finally, another cartoon from Cox and Forkum: Hostage.
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Good!
I guess we can just cut to the chase and move directly to the Nuke-'em-till-they-glow phase?
F-15's likely to fly says Sharon.
The next headline....
Let them obtain the nuclear end to their program, I'm sure it is solely for the use of detonation to reach the oil they are sitting on in an efficient and cost-wise fashion.
What the hell does that mean? My weasel to English site is down!
What the hell does that mean? My weasel to English site is down!
It's the French form of negotiation; simply never quit talking, no matter how little your talking achieves. Your opponents have a harder diplomatic time not admitting that "you tried" - even though the affects of your negotiation was a foregone conclusion - nil.
The French way is all about the process, the results are irrelevant.
The Germans and the Brits are in it only because France will do all she can to make them look like those cowboy Americans if they don't.
ROTFLOL ... perfect response!
Iran talks likely to fail, say EU diplomats
Is there anyone, anywhere that thought, even momentarily, that the EU would be successful??? Prez. "W" was just giving them something to do, so they can't/won't bit...er... complain when others take real action.
"My weasel to English site is down!"
LoL. Good one
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