Iranian Alert - August 20, 2005 - The Free World's Guess about Iran

Regime Change Iran ^ | 8.20.2005 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Top News Story

The Free World's Guess

NY Sun, Eli Lake :

"Iran is not in a revolutionary or even a pre-revolutionary state." This quote is from an August 1978 CIA assessment of a government five months away from being toppled by the first modern Islamic revolution.

The phrase, however, could easily belong to many of the Bush administration's top analysts ...

Brave leaders of Iran's democracy movement, men such as Akbar Ganji, Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, and Ahmad Batebi, should not be discouraged by the free world's recent guesswork. Read More

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran:

• VOA News reported U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan demanded the release of Iranian dissident journalist, Akbar Ganji.
  
• KRSI published English translations of their famous Iranian interrogation videos.
• Alain Peters provided some interesting underreported news from the Middle-East.
• Khaleej Times Online reported that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the US of being behind the terrorist bombings in Iraq.
• Radio Free Europe published a brief series of interviews with experts on Iran's pursuit of the nuclear-fuel cycle and its lack of political transparency.
• Voice of America News reports that while the world community has been focused on Iran's nuclear ambitions, Tehran has also been developing and deploying ballistic missiles that some believe could further destabilize the region and prompt an arms race.
• The Heritage Foundation published an Executive Memorandum: Dealing with Iran's Resurgent Hardliners.
• The Vermont Guardian reported Iranian newspapers argue that an embargo on oil sales to the United States and European countries as the most potent economic weapon for settling scores.
• Victor Davis Hanson, Chicago Tribune ponders: Is it best to let others handle terrorists and rogue states through diplomacy and conciliation, or is American proactive intervention to prompt democracy in the place of tyranny the wiser course of action?
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review reminds us that Iran is waging war on us, we are well aware of it, and we are not responding.
• The Guardian UK reported Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed that Western allegations his country is secretly trying to make weapons are a propaganda trick to deceive their own public opinion.
• And finally, Yahoo News reported Sen. Chuck Hagel called for the United States to open talks with Iran's new president.

[DoctorZIn]

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[tomahawk]

The problem I see with a revolution from within Iran is that, in 1979, the Shah's troops refused to open fire on the people. This time, the Mullahs' Revolutionary Guards (hundreds of thousands of them) would not hestitate to mow down any freedom-seeking revolutionaries. These fanatics are diehard and will fight to the death to maintain Islam's grip on Iran.

I believe it would take a decade, at the very least, to have a revolution from within Iran.

In that time, the Mullahs will have atomic weapons.

[NY Attitude]

Late in 1978 the Centurion Tanks did roll and there were firefights nightly between the Shah's troops and the revolutionaries. There were blackouts every night and the skies would light up with tank fire and tire burnings.

[F14 Pilot]

but the Shah's army didn't intentionally kill their own people due to the direct order from the Shah, himself, to prevent bloodshed.

[tomahawk]

The revolutionaries in 1979 had arms, and defectors from the army.

Today's revolutionaries don't have either, as best I can tell.

[popdonnelly]

What I do know about the present Iranian regime is that it represents a very real and potentially dangerous totalitarianism. That is evident in the proclamations of its new President.

[NY Attitude]

Yes, I remember also the recordings of machineguns being fired and played through large speakers mounted on building rooftops.

[NY Attitude]

I believe that you are correct.

[Khashayar]

Support us and we are capable of finishing the job, ourselves.

[F14 Pilot]

And sheep's blood instead of human blood?

[tomahawk]

I do support you and hope we give more a lot more help than we have.

[DoctorZIn]

Your observation is a good one.

I suggest that you might want to read ''From Dictatorship to Democracy," Sharp's booklet lays out a theory of power that explains the mechanisms of dictatorship and their weaknesses.

http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/FDTD-2.pdf

His ideas were used in the fall of the Eastern European countries and more recently in Romania, Georgia, the Ukraine, Lebanon and is now being studied in Iran.

Dictatorships have their own inherent weaknesses that can be exploited by an informed opposition movement.

For instance, the more aggressive a regime become, the more internal strains created both within and outside of the regime. The Iranian regime understands this.

[tomahawk]

Thanks for that link.

[humint]

"His ideas were used in the fall of the Eastern European countries and more recently in Romania, Georgia, the Ukraine, Lebanon and is now being studied in Iran."

Not everyone can open a PDF file in Iran...

[F14 Pilot]

http://efsha.no-ip.com/indexen.htm

[humint]

F14 – What do you think about these numbers?

Stock Markets--the engine of western economic growth; where small start-ups to global corporate powerhouses raise public capital are suddenly abuzz amongst many of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Conference) member countries… …Total Market capitalization of OIC member country markets at the end of 2004 stood at US $1,151 billion. This is based on combined market capitalization of the 27 active equity markets from the 57 OIC member countries. This total OIC market capitalization is comparable to that of the German Deutche Bourse's domestic market capitalization, which at the end of 2004 stood at US $1,195 billion. The world's largest stock market, the NYSE's domestic market capitalization was at US $ 12,708 billion.

[DoctorZIn]

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[rockstart]

DO womens have right????
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