Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[SAJ]

Very nice post, and very useful.

Sincere thanks!

[Danette]

I've never been there....I want to go someday.....so, I'm hoping it doesn't get hit. It's got to hit somewhere though.....sad.

[rwfromkansas]

darn.

It would have been nice to say this would be Castro's problem.

[nwctwx]

The chances of it going to TX are extremely slim. There is a trough coming into the west coast that will help build a ridge through the rockies and into TX. To the right of that, there will be the weakeness the storm is currently looking for. She is slowly trying to round the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge, then it's probably almost due north to the coast.

[metmom]

I remember one hurricane that went in circles in the gulf for days before finally making landfall. Can't remember which one it was but it was fun to watch. Does anyone else remember?

[Strategerist]

You've lost perception of the time span of a track forecast.

[dennis1x]

you will not be going to new orleans on monday...i suspect contra flow will begin tomorrow unless the models change dramatically. even if things change in the next couple days on the track....nola will be a ghost town on monday. again..assuming the forecast models dont change much in the next 12 hours.

[pollyg107]

I think you're right. I just told my husband, who was going to go with me, that he probably won't need to miss work Monday afternoon. I have many dear friends and co-workers in New Orleans, so I'd better start getting the guest bedrooms ready for company.

[nwctwx]

I would expect a fully formed eye when the satellite eclipse ends. She appeared to be entering a good intensification cycle.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

Water Vapor shows the outflow increasing to the NW of the system, this is usually a good indication that some turning will occur within the next 12 hours or so.

[rwfromkansas]

any dry air that could weaken this thing? In the WV, the air is not as moist to the north, but I do not know if it is dry enough to cause weakening. Any thoughts?

[Ingtar]

I have lived in Tampa, Covington, La. and Pensacola over the years. It is an interest that has never left. The west edge on the latest water vapor image looks to be entraining some dry (black) air. That might be a blessing.

[NautiNurse]

thanks--I guess I'm still trying to will her away from N.O.

[Search4Truth]

Hurricanes are not so bad.

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 15a

Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 27, 2005

...Katrina continues to strengthen... still moving toward the
west-southwest...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Florida Bay and for
the Florida Keys from Key Largo southward and westward to Key West
including the Dry Tortugas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Katrina was located by
radar near latitude 24.4 north... longitude 84.0 west or about 450
miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 135
miles west of Key West Florida.

Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. A gradual
turn to the west and west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph with higher
gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Katrina is expected to become a major hurricane today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85
miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb...28.44 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge
will gradually subside today.

Katrina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
over northwestern Cuba and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall is expected to slowly diminish
across the lower Florida Keys... although an additional 1 to 2
inches of rain is possible in some of the heavier rain bands.

Isolated tornadoes are possible this morning over the Florida Keys.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...24.4 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110
mph. Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

[NautiNurse]

Have you seen any of the most recent recon data?

[Ingtar]

Elena was the one that went ashore a couple times and in circles a bit, if I recall correctly. I lived in Pensacola then. It got to the area south of the city, stopped, headed to La. and came back as a nothing.

[Danette]

St. Louis Cathedral, New Orleans, Louisiana The following is an example of possible water heights for a slow moving category 4 hurricane. This image is an approximation of how high the water could rise. - Simulations courtesy of Mark Sudduth. Category 4 Hurricane Storm Surge Simulation New Orleans, Louisiana

[nwctwx]

They just got in there, I haven't seen a VORTEX but some of the more raw data is coming in. Looks like they have a max flight level wind around 120mph so far.

[rwfromkansas]

Do you think it will turn earlier than the NHC forecast and hit east of New Orleans?

[metmom]

Thanks. I've been wracking my brains on that one for months.
wunderground.com has some neat hurricane history but the maps were too cluttered to make anything out and going year by year was too tedious. I'll try by name.