AP Skews Another Poll To Say GOP Will Lose Congress

Sweetness & Light ^ | July 14, 2006 | N/A

[Sam Hill]

Behold this breathtaking "news" from the DNC's Associated Press:

Poll: Americans want Democrats in power

By DONNA CASSATA, Associated Press Writer

Fri Jul 14

WASHINGTON - Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.

Further complicating the GOP outlook to turn things around is a solid percentage of liberals, moderates and even conservatives who say they'll vote Democratic. The party out of power also holds the edge among persuadable voters, a prospect that doesn't bode well for the Republicans...

The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent...

The AP article goes on to reiterate in several variations how impossible it will be for Republicans to hold onto their majority in Congress.

But, as regular readers of this site will recall, the French company Ipsos always over-samples Democrats.

And this case is no different:

That's a 12% advantage to the Democrats.

So a group of people comprised of 12% more Democrats than Republicans was asked who should run Congress. And they answered Democrats by a 11% advantage.

That actually sounds like a 1% win for the GOP.

As we have noted before, the Associated Press always polls more Democrats than Republicans at the 12% clip. The AP then uses their bogus results to drive the news.

Just check out their the Ipsos News Center's archives back to the eve of the November elections last year:

Recent Associated Press Polls

* June 9, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: U.S. Backing For Troops Steadfast Despite Growing Opposition To Iraq War
* June 6, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Improved Attitudes Toward Immigrants In U.S., Europe; Europeans Remain More Skeptical Than Americans
* May 5, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Poll Suggests Conservatives Uneasy With Bush, Raising GOP Fears About Election Day
* April 21, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Shaky Confidence In Government's Ability To Deal With Bird Flu
* April 7, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush, GOP Hitting New Lows In Public Opinion
* April 2, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: More Than Half Open To Allowing Illegal Immigrants To Enter Temporary Worker Program
* March 13, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Amid Tumult Over Abortion, Americans Are Divided
* March 10, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Voters Down on Bush, Congress, State of Nation As Republicans Fret
* February 22, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Six Months After Katrina, Poll Finds Fading Confidence In Government
* February 10, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush's Public Standing Mired Near Lowest Levels, Despite A Spike In Consumer Confidence
* January 16, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Economic Concerns Recede At Start Of Year; Worries About Iraq, Politicians Have Grown
* January 7, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Say U.S. Needs Warrant To Snoop On Americans' Calls Even When Terror Suspected
* January 6, 2006: AP/Ipsos Poll: Voters Seem More Ready To End GOP Control Of Congress
* December 8, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Americans Convinced Political Corruption Is Serious Problem, Affecting Many
* December 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Living In Eight Countries Allied With U.S. Want Nothing To Do With Secret Interrogation Of Suspected Terrorists
* November 11, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Once-High Hopes For Bush Administration Ethics Have Dropped Sharply In A Time Of War And Scandal
* November 4, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Early Public Support For Alito Lags Behind Roberts, Closer To Miers
* November 3, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush Approval At New Low Amid Worries About Iraq War, Aides In Legal Trouble
* October 7, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush's Approval Mired At Lowest levels Of Presidency; Optimism About Nation's Direction Sinks To New Depths
* October 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Have lost Confidence That Billions For Hurricane Recovery Will Be Spent Wisely
* October 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Supreme Court Nominee Miers Has Less Public Support Than Roberts Had
* September 22, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Storm Changed Americans' Thinking On Race, Safety, Spending
* September 20, 2005: AP/Ipsos: Katrina Raises Voters' Doubts About Bush Priorities, Recovery Plans
* August 26, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: People Overwhelmingly Support The Right Of Critics To Openly Protest Iraq War
* August 5, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans' Approval Of Bush's Handling Of Iraq Reaches Low point; Fewer Than Half Say He's Honest
* July 21, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: More Than Half Of Americans, Especially Women, Want Supreme Court Nominee To State Position On Abortion
* July 15, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Think Transit Bombing Inevitable; Bush Ratings Remain In Doldrums
* July 14, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Almost Six In 10 Think A Terrorist Attack On U.S. Bus, Train Or Subway Is Inevitable
* June 24, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Majority Now Says War In Iraq Was A Mistake; Don't Favor Immediate Withdrawal
* June 24, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Oppose Return To Draft, Wouldn't Encourage Children To Enlist
* June 10, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush's Job Approval Dips To New Low
* May 6, 2005: AP/Ipsos CASH Index: Consumer Confidence Sinks Over The Past Month
* May 3, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Midwesterners View Economy As Nation's Top Problem; For Westerners, It's War
* April 21, 2005: AP/AOL Poll: More Than Half Of Americans Say They Expect High Energy Prices To Cause Financial Hardships
* April 11, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Popular Support For Bush’s Domestic Agenda Slipping
* March 3, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Most Oppose Bush On Social Security, But Think Their Own Retirement Is Secure
* February 26, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Say Homelessness In U.S. Is A Serious Problem
* February 14, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush’s Job Approval Figures Weaken
* January 7, 2005: AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush, Incoming Congress Faces Public Criticism
* December 13, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Increased Uncertainty About Stable Future For Iraq
* December 13, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Opinion Around the World, Eight-Country Poll On Bush's Re-Election
* November 29, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Say New Supreme Court Nominees Should Uphold Roe V. Wade
* November 9, 2004: AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Say Iraq And Terrorism Should Be Top Priorities For Bush's Second Term
* November 2, 2004: Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: What We Will Look For In The Exit Polls
* October 28, 2004: AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: New Voters, Bored Voters, Persuadable Voters, Decisive Voters
* October 27, 2004: AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Six In Ten Expect No Clear Winner On November 3rd
* October 8, 2004: AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Kerry Rebounds

Bias? What bias?

The Associated Press is just reporting what 12% more Democrats randomly selected people tell them.

It's scientific.

[D-Chivas]

One can't be a registered "moderately Republican" voter or a "moderately Democrat" voter.

This poll is crap.

[edzo4]

why it's my long lost sister san fran nan, too bad she's possessed by SATAN!!!

[Eagles Talon IV]

The links take me to a subscriber site. Anyone have the password etc?

[edzo4]

hello, nancy have you seen my cat Cici?

[xarmydog]

Saw that this morning on the news.I thought it was a joke!Is Zogby at it again?After watching the exit "polls"from the last presidential election,I realized how worthless they really are.What is scary is politicians use them to make decisions that affect their voter base!

[oolatec]

Hmmm... 17+25 = 41?

[Mo1]

That's a 12% advantage to the Democrats.

Is anyone really surprised???

They did this in the last several elections

[MNJohnnie]

May I get on your AP Ping list please?

[MNJohnnie]

You all might be intrested in the real facts behind this Junk Media propaganda line carefully released on Friday so it can dominate the Sunday shows. Don't seem to get it, they don't have an information monopoly any more.

[paudio]

Unfortunately for them, the Lebanon issue will be dominating the Sunday shows. Although, to think about it, they will find a way to tie the two issues together.

[freedomdefender]

This poll just seems to reflect the total numbers of Republicans and Democrats in the sample. A 12% disparity seems like a bad sample - it's closer to 0%."""

If oil goes above $80 a gallon because of the Mideast mess, what price will we see at the gas pump? How will it effect the Nov. election?

[misterrob]

And then they will claim the Republicans are playing to the fears of the small minded right:

1) Fear of more liberals elected to the SCOTUS

2) Fear of terrorism happening in the US

3) Fear of gay marriage

4) Fear of innocent Muslims who are really harmless and nothing more than something Bushie created.

I cannot say that I support the current bunch in the House and Senate with any enthusiasm but I have to ask myself, how does Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid sound? What will we be able to do offensively for the next few years while Bush and Co are weighed down by politically motivated impeachment or other investigative hearings?

Now more than ever we are in danger of the world blowing up. Do we want a Kerry type or someone with the guts to fight back?

As an aside, I don't fear Hillary as much as other people might on being weak against our enemies.

Bad news domestically but that biatch would have an itchy trigger finger. Cross her and you will likely wind up dead.

Ask Vince Foster.

[rodeocowboy]

If Republicans lose, it is clearly because of a lack of leadership, not because of policy. Republicans have been the greatest disappointment of my life in these last 12 years. It's expected that Democrats suck, but I would have never figured that Republicans, with unprecedented control of most of government(s), nationwide, would do such a horrible job!

[Thanatos]

"That's a 12% advantage to the Democrats. " It's actually even worse then that.. If you go further down the "Raw Data" you will see that anyone who answered that they were of any religion other then Catholic, Jewish, or Secular was marked as "Protestant", and is over 60%.. They also claim that there are more "Conservatives" then "Liberals" in the poll.. the only thing they don't mention is that Liberals will not call themselves "Liberal" but will call themselves "Moderate" so in effect, over 60% of those polled are actually Liberal, so basically, the whole thing should be called:

"Liberals want Democrats in control of Congress"

[zook]

All I had to know to realize how bogus this poll was was the fact that it didn't focus on likely voters. What percent of the "1000 adults" will actually vote? About 33?

[arthurus]

These polls will probably continue to get worse for the Republicans right up to election day when the Democrats will be cheering that they have a cinched WIN that will sweep half or more of the Republicans out of Congress. That way when the results are reported and the Democrats have failed to gain or have even lost seats, there is a "case" already made that The Republicans Stole It Again! Diebold Stole The Election for the Republicans! Bush is a Dictator! Workers of America Arise!

[rodeocowboy]

Shhhhhh! It's a carefully crafted Rovian plot.

You see, if the dems think they're waaaaay ahead in the polls, they'll stay home on election day assuming other dems will get off their keisters and vote.

OTOH, Republicans will get out, vote and "steal" the election again. ;-)

ROTFLMBO! It's the same when Bush comes out with a horrible idea. Some on here will claim that we should just trust him because the man that can't articulate an idea, much less sell an idea, is somehow a sudden mastermind that has a "trick" up his sleeve for surprising victory!

[hollywood]

Matt Graening (sp), the creator of the Simpsons, inked a few comic books/strips. One of those books was "Work is Hell". One of the strips in the book was a 7-panel one titled 'The Seven Advantages of Being Stupid' (or something like that), with a dopey barney-like dinosaur character acting stupid. One of the panels' caption was "Watching replays is just as exciting as the original live play", with the dinasaur anxiously leaning forward in his recliner, watching a tape of a football game, and shouting: "Maybe he'll make the field-goal this time!". That is the AP poll angle, I guess.

[billybudd]

I dunno. How much did increasing oil prices affect the 2004 election? I think some basic base-disenchanting issues like illegal immigration factor in much more.

[tdscpa]

French math. 50 Germans vs. 1000 Frenchmen= German victory.