Posted on 10/16/2006 12:41:25 PM PDT by rightinthemiddle
And Not Only the House--GOP Insiders Say Democrats Could Win Senate Too
Optimism and realism are two of the essential ingredients for winning in politics.
During the three national election victories presided over by George W. Bush and his top political adviser Karl Rove — in 2000, 2002 and 2004 — the Republican Party had reason to be both optimistic and realistic about its prospects for victory.
But regarding the 2006 midterms, just three weeks away, many Republican strategists and party donors believe the only realistic position is one that's far from optimistic. With an unpopular war hanging over their heads and President Bush in his sixth year in office (when a president's party typically suffers significant congressional losses), numerous Republican sources believe that Democrats are likely to win more than the 16 seats they need to win back control of the House and could possibly gain the six Senate seats required to resume control of that chamber.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
You are making good points and asking good questions.
There are serious problems in our party, and they may be, in part, of the type you suggest.
All we can do right now is quickly denounce this kind of attitude among our leaders, if it exists, then GET BACK TO WORK. In '04 I sometimes said to volunteers: THIS ELECTION ISN'T REALLY ABOUT BUSH OR THE GOP. IT'S ABOUT US AND OUR FUTURE. We can't do much about their weaknesses. But we can work to save the election. And in '04, we did. We can do it again this year.
o Take House (ABC does DNC work), Bobkk47 wrote:
If the Left didn't own the MSM, we'd never lose an election.
Maybe so, but we've got Conservative Talk Radio, FR and the rest of the conservative websites, no small thing.
________
There's a BIG difference: People tune in or log on by choice. Everyone else gets their new from the MSM, which functions as an arm of the DNC.
Let me add this. Unluckily, you are working from a bad phone list. I think most Republican phone lists are much more accurate and up-to-date. I'd call this problem to the higher-ups' attention, now, as high up as you need to go.
That's exactly what it is, psych-warfare. The democratic media keeps telling me I must stay home and not vote all is lost, I guess they'll keep saying it until I believe it. Unfortunately for them it won't work. I can't wait to vote. If they think they will be swept into office by supressing the republican vote they will be very disappointed come Nov. 8th.
They're right. I'm not voting this year. I've had it. I give up. All is lost. < \extreme sarcasm>
My guess as to why it doesn't work nationally is that our ground game is volunteers who come in because they BELIEVE in the principles; and I think it's indicative of the Dems that they have to PAY people to "believe" in their principles. Now, they may get some radicals from Moveon.org---but that's not the people from the communities, IN the communities. And those radicals can't stay long, whereas we go out every week and do a few hundred homes at a time.
That's the spirit!!!
Let them keep saying it, only makes us work harder to get out the vote for the GOP.
Prove what? That we'll lose or that I'm not happy about thinking we'll lose?
If it's the first question: Of course not, but all the indicators are there.
If it's the second question: Only if you count the 4 campaigns I've worked on the staff of Republican candidates, the countless ones I've volunteered for, the Congressman and Think-Tanks I've worked for, and my history of voting for the GOP. And if you meant that as an insult: Screw you.
Not only are you a pessimist, but you're also a creep.
I'll keep that in mind for future reference, and keep my curiosity about you to myself.
(I think I found out all I need to know anyway....)
Ahhh yes, the old "unamed sources" technique. It shows its face in a variety of disquises. Here it is showing under the "GOP Insiders" guise. As one freeper summed up, when you read "unamed sources" you can pretty much bet that those sources are the opinions of the newsroom of whatever MSM outlet is reporting the story.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1530401/posts
About your work, outstanding! Wish we had more like you around here.
About the increasing troubles with phoning, I think you're right. And I think the party knows it. One reason why there was such a huge push for precinct-walking, and for personal contact among friends and acquaintances, in '04.
In California, the emphasis this year, at least in the statewide campaign, is once again on phoning, as it was for years. Don't know why. These were the years when our party in CA declined. However, in my two hours at a HQ here, phoning, we had a very good list. Not a huge number of people answered, but the list was accurate and most numbers were right. And again, it's not bad to leave messages with the full pitch.
But overall, you're right -- if you can, walk, don't phone
unless it's to publicize an event, when it can be especially useful.
Yes, I think it's quite possible that all this phone technology has reduced conservative and Republican representation (more than liberal and non-GOP moderate) participation in polls. I think conservatives and the well-off (which covers lots of moderate Republicans) are especially concerned about privacy and especially interested in technical gadgetry, in part because such gadgetry can make their lives slightly more private.
One more reason to be less-than-panicked about the polls we're seeing.
GOP Insiders like Pat Pukeannan and Scarbutt??? Funny how surprised they were in Denmark, Germany, Australia over Conservative votes after the Leftist predictions. More DC Echo Chamber!
Pray for W and Our Troops
I've done phonebanking and could tell from the numbers that I had a list from a poor part of town. Still, I found a fair number of moderate and conservative Republicans, even though I had 3 disconnected numbers for every one live person I reached and two out of 100 were rude slam-downs.
What I want to know is why our landline in a blue state is never ever polled? But we do get GOP calls, both RNC fundraising and GOTV.
For mailings, we seem to get a lot of expensive Democrat literature, sometimes 2 or 3 if they bought old lists with different versions of our names. Mostly the GOP mailings are RNC fundraising attempts.
Also, I do not care to be phoned either for the Party database or the GOTV. I understand why it has to be done, but by the end of the election campaign, even the broken-glass Republicans are begging for mercy and it is almost impossible to get volunteers to phonebank.
A lot depends on the quality of the list they give you,
and how well targeted it is.
But in any case, I do think phoning is less useful toward the end, when people are tired of all the ads and mail.
The personal visit or personally placed door hanger is still appreciated, I think, by a large number of folks.
Phoning in the final week should be tightly focused on reminding people where their polling place is and what hours it will be open.
Yup!
Annoy the media: Keep Congress in Republican hands!
I can't even watch the news anymore.
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