Posted on 10/22/2006 9:41:44 AM PDT by ClarenceThomasfan
Excerpt: Polls show improving news for GOP in Senate
The last few days have had some encouraging Senate polls for Republicans, while House polls are still mixed. Zogby has Talent up 3% in Missouri, Allen up 3% in Virginia,and Corker up 7% in Tennessee. He also has Kean up 2% in New Jersey where the New Republic exposes the smell of scandal emanating from Bob Menendez.
Zogby has Dewine down 4% in Ohio and Bouchard in Michigan only 4% behind Debbie Stabenow (I would not bet on accuracy of this last one). Rasmussen, generally more reliable, has a new poll with Burns down only 3% in Montana (was 6%). New poll today has Chafee down 4% in Rhdde Island (also closer than before).
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I would like to be proven right that the country is too smart to turn the country over to the Bolshecrats. The Bolshecrats will fall victim to the first law of propaganda, never, ever, believe your own propaganda. They spoke to their cohorts in the slime stream media, and, the ssm parroted it right back at them. And, they believed it.
It's possible that the Republicans are "coming back." Another possibility is one that Rush talked about. Early in the election season, there will be wild polls showing Democrats with a huge lead. Then, when the election is closer, the polls miraculously tighten, and when the election is actually held, Republicans win.
We may lose a few seats, but I feel absolutely confident we'll keep the house and senate.
This may interest you.
Man, will I be glad when this is over. Polls suck.
"Mich is the surpise coming."
From your lips to God's ears. I've been seeing more Republican lawn signs than Dems, but no matter....VOTE!
Yep! And Rasmussen is still using a very skewed demographic in his polls. It went as high as 16% more dems than repubs - which is way off the actual numbers of registered voters in some areas.
Read this: Cooking the Polls
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1722653/posts
Enjoy
Expect Republicans to gain at least one additional seat in the Senate (possibly two or more) and at least four additional seats in the House.
Faked and manipulated polls aside, the methodologies - and even the underlying theories and philosophies - of most pollsters and pundits are still bogged down in the last century.
Congress CBS News/New York Times Poll. Oct. 14-17, 2004. N=931 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 678 likely voters (MoE ± 4). Per CBS: "Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters." . "If the 2004 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" . Among likely voters: . Trend, among registered voters:
Republican
Democrat
Depends
(vol.) Don't
Know
%
%
%
%
10/14-17/04
39
45
7
9
9/12-16/04
39
41
8
12
7/11-15/04
37
46
8
9
3/10-14/04
38
42
8
12
On the topic of the house. I found this from Election Projection interesting :
Amid all the doom and gloom about an upcoming bloodbath on November 7, I'd like to point out some facts. I've taken a close look at the numbers for the 60 or so hot to remotely warm House races. In my investigation, two items of interest have come to my attention that should impact how we view the upcoming congressional elections. I draw one conclusion - control of the House, one way or the other, is anything but a done deal.
* Constituent Dynamics - The most prolific pollster of House races so far this year has been without question Constituent Dynamics. I had not heard of them before they released a rash of House polls back in September. Because polling data for House races is hard to come by, I decided to include them in Election Projection's calculations. Taken as a whole, their numbers seem decent enough, with some notable exceptions. On more than one occasion, they have predicted the Democratic candidate to win by a larger margin than Democratic polls released at or about the same time.
Just for kicks, I deleted all their polls from my calculations just to see what would happen to the numbers. The result? Six of the twenty House seats the GOP is currently projected to lose moved back into the GOP column. (Subscribers know that today's tally gives the GOP 212 seats.) Add six to that and you have a GOP majority. In other words, projected control of the House - as it stands here at Election Projection - is largely due to one questionable polling firm.
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html
This is good news. However, a lot of these polls cited are from Zogby International, which are not known for being highly reliable.
Democrats have to win The Firewall (Ohio, Tennessee, and Missouri) to win control of the Senate. To that firewall, I would add New Jersey, where the GOP candidate appears to be pulling even.
That is a myth.
Oh, Santorum DID have issues with conservatives angry for his support of Specter. But the past few months have NOT been full of sniping towards him. Anything but. You might have noticed if anything conservatives have been MORE vocal in supporting him then any other Republican these last months. You're a few months too late with that analysis, they've already made up. They id so shortly after the primaries were held.
Santorum's issue is not the conservative base anymore. Direct your attention to the makeup of Penn. His problem is that he needs not only Republicans, conservative AND Liberal Specter Republicans which haven't always been his best friends, not only Indy's, but needs to chop into the Dem vote as well. he's done it in past, but it isn't easy.
All I can say is in my area where we have been smothered with the 'cut and run conservatives' and their crap....
But we aren't worrying about it, we know that he will come out on top....we are all working hard around here to make sure he does...
Thats what I thought too.
If that Dem pollster Zogby has
Corker by 7 it`s probably at least 10.
Fords gate crashing stunt didn`t help him.
Another FReeper posted a formula for polls. He said on most of them, add 7 for the Republican and subtract 3 for the Democrat, and it will be more accurate.
Bump
There have been numerous encouraging invidual House polls recently, too. This election is by no means a DEM shoo-in, not by a long shot.
We still don't know who Mike is. Part of that may be Stabenow's hiding and refusal to debate but a lot of it has to do with little other visibility from his campaign. My sister asked him at a dinner if he was campaigning harder on the other side of the state since we hear so little from or about him here and he said he hated to hear that. I have watched the last 2 presidential elections tighten here (with far more investment and organization than I see in this race) and Posthumus tightened the race in the closing days against Granholm, but the Republicans always come up short. I hope like heck you are right about this one.
If we had to lose one race let's hope it's this a-wipe, Chafee.
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