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Posted on 10/29/2006 9:08:30 PM PST by RWR8189
What's with the polls?
In 2004, the electorate that went to the polls or voted absentee was, according to the adjusted NEP exit poll, 37 percent Democratic and 37 percent Republican. In party identification, it was the most Republican electorate since George Gallup conducted his first random sample poll in October 1935.
But most recent national polls show Democrats with an advantage in party identification in the vicinity of 5 percent to 12 percent. Party identification usually changes slowly. Historically, voters have switched from candidates of one party to candidates of the other more readily than they have changed their party identification.
Over time, big changes in party ID can and do occur. When I started in the polling business, in 1974, national party identification was almost 50 percent Democratic and not much more than 25 percent Republican.
Since then, Democratic party ID has fallen, particularly in the South, where many voters who considered themselves Democrats found themselves voting Republican for president and, increasingly in the 1980s and 1990s, for other offices, as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
A) The Democrat Media is full of liars.
B) Republicans are all carrying cell phones, and don't get polled.
Excellent point. Or don't answer their home phones when they don't recognize the number on Caller ID...
I was called by a poll today. My response: "I'm sorry but I don't do polls. Thanks. Bye"
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Flawed methodology.
You're absolutely right. Democrats get polled 100% more than they should.
When even Barone isn't sure he knows what's going on, it means everything is up for grabs. I think Republicans have just gotten wise to the MSM and pollsters and just dropped off the radar.
Smart people.
Well, I just know that my life-long democratic (JFK-idolizing, union-household) mother, who is appalled that so many of her children are republican, has asked me how to to change her political affiliation from democrat to independent - I found the form she needed and printed it out for her, aything I could do...
There is movement out there among the old-school democrats!
The Dems that are being overpolled by the pollsters are just speaking for their dead voters.
They are referring to the Reagan democrats. People who couldn't get with the Wall St./country club Republicans but were pretty far away from being liberals.
"The late Warren Mitofsky, who conducted the 2004 NEP exit poll, went back and found that the greatest difference between actual results in exit poll precincts and the reports phoned in to NEP came where the interviewers were female graduate students -- and almost all the discrepancies favored the Democrats."
WOW!
The slow but accelerating death of land-line phones has a lot to do it it, as mentioned by Barone.
From the article:
" But pollsters of both parties will admit that polls do a poor job at projecting turnout."
I knew that!
The Southerners finally woke up! They realized they had been bamboozeled by the Dems and put a stop to it!
Free at last! Free at last! Thank God, the South is free at last!
**As the results come in on election night, and as we peruse them in the days and weeks afterward, we will see whether the party identification of the electorate has changed as much as many of the polls suggest. In off-years especially, the key to elections is who comes out to vote.**
We'll have to see what Barone says then. He forecast today that the dims would take the House. Hmmmm.
I agree and another is the wording of polls, especially on initiatives. Many are clearly worded for a particular outcome, usually liberal. I refuse to listen to them any more.
Demrats have to obtain 15 new seats to gain the House.
Not buying it.
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