Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
Good post.
I think Guiliani will express more conservative views in his quest for the Presidency. It's one thing to govern New York City, a very liberal city, and quite another to be the President of America.
I'm not sold on him as my favorite candidate yet. I really don't have a favorite candidate. I'd like to learn more about Mitt Romney before I make up my mind.
It's really early. No delegates will be selected by this time next year. I don't give any of the candidates who are currently House members any chance whatsoever, and I'm certainly patient enough to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
As I read your post I was riveted. But at the end I detected a tendency toward wild hyperbole. You referred to Hillary as evil and McCain as insane. Was that just sparky poltical hyperbole or do you actually believe Hillary is classically evil and McCain is clinically insane?
In my lifetime I don't recall I have ever seeing an American politician who was clincially insane. H. Ross Perot came close perhaps ( the Viet Cong Agents in his pajamas happened AFTER his run) but none who were truly clinically insane. I don't think Hillary is evil in the classic definition of evil either. Can't recall an American politican who was patently evil either. Maybe David Duke perhaps or Huey Long. I just think she is profoundly wrong. There is a difference.
So what specifically makes Hillary evil and McCain insane (assuming you weren't being hyperbolic)
Keeping red states red always matters.
Now the really funny part is we know exactly what you will do on election day, JMC. You will vote for Rudy Giuliani. Why? Because you dislike Rudy less than you loathe Hillary. You are a pragmatist after all all the posturing.
Now isn't that right, JMC?
I find it interesting that you discard all notion of FISCAL conservatism.
You weren't on this thread last which was very revealing. You should read it. It's eye-opening.
Don't bet on it. Many of them are unrealistic.
OMFG.
Thank you for posting that. I didn't know he said that. Sounds too much like
We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good. [- Hillary C.]
Ferget 'em both. No further discussion necessary.
That's pretty cynical. I'm one of those who advocates making party changes in the primary election and then probably holding your nose with some degree of tightness in the general election instead of staying home.
Let's say Duncan Hunter is my man (which he isn't because I disagree with him on trade policy) and it's time to vote in the Texas primary. I'd still have to consider how to most effectively use my vote.
If all the evidence indicated to me that he'd probably only garner 5% of the votes, I might vote for my #2 choice who I think still has a shot, and is a viable contender. I don't cast protest votes unless the ballot leaves me no choice.
But I have no problem voting against a Republican incumbent who has a more conservative primary challenger. That's the no-brainer.
It's when there is no incumbent Republican for the office and there are multiple candidates that one has to engage in some strategic vote casting.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,988620-2,00.html
I actaully saw the clip of Hillary saying hers.
Beware of quote which do not give a link to a non-partisan site and provide context. We're seeing it all the time about Rusy.
It is not. I will indeed go third-party if, God forbid, Rudy is the nominee. There are good arguments for holding your nose and being pragmatic, but I simply cannot bring myself to vote for a man who says, "Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do." That goes 180 degrees against everything I personally stand for.
I'm also not afraid of Hillary. I've noticed a lot of the Rudy people lately saying that "if Hillary is elected, we're all going to die.", no exaggeration. That's retarded.
BTW, the stock market just closed. I'm on the freeway.
See ya later.
JMC...Must you twist my words so?...I am not "pro-abortion"or " anti-gun". I am against some abortion ( third trimester) and I am against some guns ( assault weapons, sawed off shotguns,and automatic weapons) I own guns myself ( five in fact). I believe in gun responsibility.
Above all I am pro-liberty. Your brand of conservatism appears coercive and anti-liberty to me. Hate coercion whatever banner it carries.
Pro abortion pro homo...No way!
Hey, I'm a libertarian. I'm all about fiscal conservatism.
You weren't on this thread last which was very revealing. You should read it. It's eye-opening.
It looks like your link didn't come through. Could you post it again? I'd be happy to look at it. If it is about Rudy's alleged fiscal conservatism, I will say that I've seen some good arguments both for and against him being fiscally conservative, but have not had the chance to research it enough myself to come to a conclusion.
However, even if Rudy is the most fiscally conservative guy in the world, I simply cannot vote for someone who says, "Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do." I hope you can at least appreciate how nausiatingly offensive that is to many people.
Well that's a respectable reason to oppose him, though I would make the argument that abortion and the 2nd Amendment are far and away more important than differences in trade policy. But I digress. You have a valid reason for opposing him, so you're not the type of freeper I'm referring to in this case.
If all the evidence indicated to me that he'd probably only garner 5% of the votes, I might vote for my #2 choice who I think still has a shot, and is a viable contender.
In other races, I would consider that valid. But in this case, the three liberals are very hard to distinguish from one another on the issues. My way of looking at it is that it doesn't really matter which of those three make it if they indeed do.
Roseanne was liked? Not the show, the person??
That link confirms that he said it, not debunks it. That quote is in the "fact" section of that paragraph, not the "rumor" section.
Rumor: Giuliani hates pedestrians, taxi drivers, hot-dog vendors, squeegee men, people on welfare, reporters, anyone opposing any of his proposals at any time, and doesn't even get along well with his own wife. Fact: The mayor does not hate these people. The mayor is a temperate man of philosophical disposition. He simply recognizes that those particular individuals tend toward rudeness and thus need to be treated firmly. They must be given rules, and when they break the rules they must be punished. What could be fairer than that? As His Honor has so profoundly said, "Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do and how you do it."Seductive, yes.
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