Posted on 05/10/2007 5:08:37 AM PDT by HopeSprings
The American Association of Petroleum Geologists, an international organization of over 30,000 earth scientists, supports expanding scientific climate research into the basic controls on climate, specifically including the geological aspects of climate change. This research should be undertaken by appropriate federal agencies involved in climate research and their associated grant and contract programs. Such support includes major research efforts into potential effects of decreasing as well as increasing temperatures and the mitigation of such effects. This research is important to sustain the ability of agriculture to feed the growing global population as well as to understand the effects of a colder climate upon society.
Geologists who study past climate variations understand that current climate warming projections fall well within documented natural variations in past climate. Therefore, for scientific reasons, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists does not support placing a carbon tax upon fossil energy sources as a tool to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, nor do we support any implementation of the Kyoto Protocol prior to Senate ratification.
Rationale
One of the most contentious debates in American public policy today encompasses proposals to restrict emissions of the minor atmospheric gas carbon dioxide in order to mitigate a perceived human influence on global climate. Current proposals (Kyoto Protocol signed by the executive branch of the U.S. government, but not ratified by Congress) would federally tax crude oil at the rate of about $43.50 per barrel (1). No reduction in existing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would result from this massive transfer of wealth from the private sector into the federal government.
Recognizing the potential impact on the United States and world economy of such taxation and restriction of energy use, it is important that greenhouse theories be tested thoroughly and quickly. Scientific examination of the government case for such draconian taxation does not support the supposition of human-induced global climate change; in fact, the study resulted in recognition that the supposition is neither provable nor disprovable. The following observations are germane to the position:
1. Scientific research has been stimulated by the proposal. Recently published research results do not support the supposition of an anthropogenic cause of global climate change (2).
2. Detailed examination of current climate data strongly suggests that current observations do not correlate with the assumptions or supportable projections of human-induced greenhouse effects.
Background
Geologists know:
1. Climate is constantly changing, and has varied significantly over human history. Climate changes over any time scale chosen, whether as small as a decade or as long as a geologic era.
2. Natural variability has been demonstrated to exceed any supportable estimate of human-induced variability.
3. Earth is still emerging from the Little Ice Age (A. D. 1250 - 1850). Significant rises in global temperature are a predictable consequence. The current level of global warming is real and natural.
4. Geologic controls on climate are significant. Long term changes can be demonstrated to occur congruently with geologic tectonic changes. Little is truly understood of the controls on short term changes. Solar variability, for instance, is significant in centennial to millennial changes, among other possible controls that should be examined.
5. Attempts to engineer Earth's very complex climate before understanding natural controls on climate are risky, if not impossible.
Summary
Science requires that all aspects of theory be investigated and that assumptions be tested. Human-induced global temperature influence is a supposition that can be neither proved nor disproved. It is unwise policy to base stringent controls on energy consumption through taxation to support a supposition that cannot be substantiated.
Climate naturally varies constantly, in both directions, at varying rates, and on many scales. Warming events have been historically good for most human society, while cold events have been deleterious to much of society. It is vital that climate research to examine the effects of a colder climate also be supported. Critical target areas of this research should include the potential impact of climate change on food production. Further research should concentrate on mitigation techniques to combat any serious effects of either colder or warmer climate, naturally or artificially caused, on the ability of the world to feed itself.
The AAPG urges that any actions to implement or to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and any future declarations of climate policy be delayed until there is better understanding of present climate and the impacts of policy implementation, as well as some provision for mitigating errors in policy. There is no current viable substitute for petroleum-based fuels in the world’s energy budget and economy.
1. The Energy Information Administration has estimated that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol would result in a carbon tax of $348 per ton of carbon (E.I.A. SR/OIAF/98-30). Murphy Oil Company estimates of about .12 ton of carbon per barrel of oil (or 8 barrels per ton of carbon) (Oil and Gas Journal, Nov. 2, 1998, p.30) results in an estimated $43.50 carbon tax per barrel of oil.
2. All geologists who are interested in the climate debate probably should read two books:
• Moore, Peter D., Bill Chaloner, and Philip Stott, 1996, Global environmental change: Blackwell Science, Oxford, England, 244 p.
• Lamb, H. H., 1995, Climate, History, and the Modern World: 2nd Ed., Routledge, NY, 433 p.
• Three recent papers of interest to scientists are:
• Bluemle, J. P., J. M. Sabel, and W. Karlen, 1999, Rate and Magnitude of Past Global Climate Changes: Environmental Geosciences, v. 6, n. 2, p. 63-75.
• Fischer, H., M. Wahlen, J. Smith, D. Mastoianni, and B. Deck, 1999, Ice Core Records of Atmospheric CO2 Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations: Science, v. 283, p.1712-1714.
• Fan, S., M. Gloor, J. Mahlman, S. Pacala, J. Sarmiento, T. Takahashi, and R. Tans, 1998, A Large Terrestrial Carbon Sink in North America Implied by Atmospheric and Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Data and Models: Science, v. 282, p. 442-446.
Don’t confuse us with the facts.
It’s refreshing. When I started to read the article I just knew it was going to be another jump on the bandwagon statement by a group of scientists looking for research grants. Congratulations to this group and you.
Thanks for the post HopeSprings. I wonder if the MSM will now publish the conclusions of 30,000 scientists that disputes the consensus of 2,000 “so-called” scientists.
Of course they still want plenty of grant money to keep flowing in from the Feds but their honesty is refreshing. ;-)
Libs will just dismiss this and insist the geologists were “bought” because it’s from the Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Thanks. As a geologist myself, I keep wondering why this is not being disseminated (get it?) further.
Of course the climate changes. Why would we need the word if it was static? As I posted in another thread, my grandmother called them seasons and told me they had been happening for a long time.
Just had this discussion with some people over the weekend. The overall goal of these “scientists” who wish to declare themselves gods is to CONTROL the climate. They want to regulate the temperature. I know they keep saying that there is a difference between weather and climate, but if they think that they can control the climate of the entire globe, I would first like to see them control a hurricane or a tornado or an earthquake or a volcanic eruption or a lightening storm.
Point being, it is extremely egotistical for these people to think that they can ever CONTROL the Earth’s climate. My guess is that in trying to control it, they will screw it up immeasurably.
Unfortunately any facts from this group will just be dismissed because they have petroleum in their name.
Thanks for reassuring me that common sense still lives and breathes in the crazy PC world we live in today. I hope it’s enough.
Notice the increased use of the words “Climate Change” lately. They discovered it was hard to convince the people in the Northeast that Global Warming was a serious problem at a time when they were facing their most brutal Winters in years.
Duuuugh... A Socialist Wet Dream...
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Democracy is the road to socialism. Karl Marx
Democracy is indispensable to socialism. The goal of socialism is communism. V.I. Lenin
The meaning of peace is the absence of opposition to socialism.- Karl Marx
Bend over, get ready to pay, Sen Inhofe estimates it will amount to $4,500 in new taxes a year per ... Read the MIT paper reference by Inhofe for more information.
Did the donks have this BTU tax in their plan, tell anyone about it, or did the hoax just come up?
Exactly - the word "Petroleum" in their name proves to the Left that they are merely paid stooges of Cheney and the Oil industry. Their efforts will be wasted.
I like that closing sentence -- "future decision-making could be made based on scientific data and not on political expediency". I wouldn't count on it, but that would be great.Caves reveal clues to UK weatherAt Pooles Cavern in Derbyshire, it was discovered that the stalagmites grow faster in the winter months when it rains more. Alan Walker, who guides visitors through the caves, says the changes in rainfall are recorded in the stalactites and stalagmites like the growth rings in trees. Stalagmites from a number of caves have now been analysed by Dr Andy Baker at Newcastle University. After splitting and polishing the rock, he can measure its growth precisely and has built up a precipitation history going back thousands of years. His study suggests this autumn's rainfall is not at all unusual when looked at over such a timescale but is well within historic variations. He believes politicians find it expedient to blame a man-made change in our weather rather than addressing the complex scientific picture.
by Tom Heap
Three “recent” papers are all more than 7 years old? There’s been some work done since then!
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