Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
Made no sense to me either until I saw the number of business associations pushing for it.
Remember GWB saying how much he loves steak? The American Meat Institute which represents 70 percent of annual American meat production is behind it big time (Hormel, Tyson, and Cargill closed dozens of plants for the May 2006 "immigration rally" and excused 20,000 from work that day).
So is the Council of Chain Restaurants, which sounds innocuous but represents employers of 3,000,000 fast food workers (lots of illegal aliens).
American Home Builders, one of the largest lobbyists in DC with at least 45 on the payroll. Anecdotally, I haven't seen many non-Hispanics doing general construction labor in a very long time.
There is huge money behind this thing.
southernindymom, I posted a long list of 2006 Amnesty supporters on the previous page of this thread, toward the bottom of the page. You can't miss it.
We need Moses, not David.
>> The ruling class WILL have its way!
The Founders did not agree.
Better gear up for the big Tea Party that's coming, all.
I emailed Bayh & Lugar,(both worthless) and I even emailed
McConnell.
Probably need BOTH!
Nail them down on their position....
..we need to be proactive!
We can't assume anything!
We must know their position on this quickly!
And don’t forget to email every human being you know...ESPECIALLY the sheeple.
YEP!!!!
Yep.
“The Founders did not agree.”
But they ain’t here anymore. Failing to recognize them (the ruling class) for what they are does not mean they don’t exist.
sw
I'll keep you updated, my friend.
I had the strangest dream the other night. A truly terrible immigration bill had been signed into law. One day in the Fall, one million American patriots showed up in Washington on the same day and the most amazing thing happened - all their cars broke down at the same time.
Uh....YOU have a mighty strange posting history...or lack thereof....
Back to the subject at hand.....
This is so disgusting
I have spent hours making phone calls, sending emails and faxes....
Never have I felt so helpless....
Damn, America is being sold out and we just have to sit here and watch.
I believe it is we who have turned away from God. We are suppose to be a Christian nation but can’t get rid of abortion! And how many Christian churches are in support of homosexuality? And look at hollyweird and the immoral crap they put out and make billions of dollars,and they are the biggest supporters of abortion and homosexuality!And yet this Christian nation keeps hollyweird in business.And the people in Washington do NOT take Christians serious but they sure take the Muslims serious! WE have to take our country back. I’ve made the phone calls and emails but it is going to take more than that,what can we do? Ready for Hitllery?
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