Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
“TERM LIMITS!!!!”
TOO LATE!
I'd appreciate your response.
There is another locus of power in DC, and the conservative version of it circulates on the McLean, VA dinner party circuit.
Lott, as Majority Leader, always reminded me of Winston Churchill's discription of Germany: Always either at your throat, or at your feet.
Lott would alternate between insulting Daschalle and the Democrats, and cravenly caving in to the Democrats every demand. I thought it was the worst possible way to lead the Republicans, as he was too rude to charm the Democrats, and too spineless to coerce them. But I was wrong, that wasn't the worst way to lead. The worst way to lead the Republicans is what Lott is doing right now, alternating between insulting other Republicans, and cravenly caving in to the Domocrats every demand.
How about my #52?
This is the thread I was talking about...
“Because of a confluence of special interests like the US Chamber of Commerce, labor unions, and La Raza.”
Anyone who saw Dobbs last night: did you see the expression on the La Raza shill’s face when Lou asked her if portions of the “grand bargain” had been presented to `The Race’ for review and approval/ratification?
She looked like she’d been `pole-axed’ . . .
10,000 of us Floridians showed up at the state capital one year for Right to Life.
As we here in Virginia celebrate the 400th Anniversary of Jamestown, the congress is moving forward with their own liberation plans. Francis Scott Key’s rendition will also change.
UNBELIEVABLE!
Bastards!
TRAITORS!
See also #67
They live in a bubble and are only concerned with what those directly around them say or think. It’s no wonder they’ll be “shocked, shocked” I tell ya when the spit hits the fan in the real world.
The House represents our best chance to stop it. They run every two years and are closer to the people. When only about 25% of the public favors the Senate bill, it shows you the degree of disconnect between the people and its government. The very fact that the WH and the Senate will resurrect it again demonstrates the disdain they have for the people. I see this as a winning issue politically for the Reps because it cuts across party lines. The problem is that the WH and Senate [and Harry Reid] are making this a Rep bill. We will get the blame and reap none of the benefits. “See you at the signing ceremony.”
I was just musing on that same theme.
It's been a very long while since we (and by "we" I mean ALL Americans) have been in such a direct confrontation with tyranny.
Our Founders warned us over and over and over again that this might (and probably would) happen.
It's now beyond argument that Congress and George Bush are aligned, plotting, and scheming directly against the American people.
This is not representative government, it's naked and shameless tyranny.
“The ruling class WILL have its way!”
_________________
I’m not wearing a tin foil hat but I’ve said from the beginning that this thing is so screwy that it must have some big powers behind it, lurking in the shadows. This goes far beyond the president, Dems or GOP Rinos.
At this point I’m more worried about the future of the United States of America than I am about the Republican party. JMO
It's the type of behavior you see in an oligarchy.
A good letter posted recently on the FR GA forum:
Dear Senator Chambliss,
Thank you for sending this message regarding the message to the President, which I have indeed read. My problem is with the following passage:
To that end, we believe that you and your administration could alleviate many of the fears of our constituents by calling for an emergency supplemental bill to fully fund the border and interior security initiatives contained in legislation currently pending in the Senate
You see, we don’t want this bill funded, contemplated or debated. We want the current laws enforced, the promised 10,000 new Border Patrol Agents (how many have we fielded?), and the already funded wall built. This is not hard to understand. The citizens of Georgia and the United States have had it with the invasion and lack of security on the border in post 9/11 world.
Please drop all consideration of immigration reform. We do not need more laws when the current ones are being broken. All that needs reforming is the lack of enforcement of laws already on the books.
Thanks for your time.
Sincerely,
Doodad
And you have good reason to be.
I printed this off. I’m going to mail it to my senators to put some pressure on them. I am not going to let them play politics with this and vote for expediency. If either think that I would vote for them EVER again if they vote yes on this, they’d best think again.
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