Posted on 08/15/2007 6:24:50 PM PDT by Plutarch
On the Republican side Fred Thompson is leading the race with 22%, followed by Rudy Giuliani (18%), Mitt Romney (17%), John McCain (11%) and Mike Huckabee (7%). Thompson’s lead has shrunk in the last two months. In June he led the next closest candidate by eleven percent, and overall his percentage has fallen five percent. In those two months Giuliani has seen his support increase by four percent, McCain’s has dropped four percent, and Huckabee’s rose four percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Your analysis is interesting, thanks for posting it.
I don't see where McCain's diminishing band of supporters goes to any candidate in particular. These are likely oblivious legacy supporters, who Press 5 for McCain only because they are proud to recognize one of the names. When McCain departs, they will, like thistles, drift wherever the wind blows.
Rich Lowry has a stiffy for Romney, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. I can understand Kathryn Jean-Lopez’s girl-crush on Marvelous Mitt, but Lowry?
An undeclared candidate leads all others by at least 5 points, and Rich made it out to be a huge surge for Romney. Go figure.
Romney is a machine. He just showed up in South Carolina recently and already his support is ratcheting upwards, and closing in on the lead.
One of Romney’s campaign people had a point that seems to be true on a video a month or more back. He said whenver they get Romney in front of people, in person or even on tv, people like him. People just like the guy, and see that he is smart as a whip and has lots of leadership success.
By the way...what do the Paulistinians have to say about the 2% the good doctor pulled down? So much for the netroots thing.
I am hoping McCain stays in the race, so he and Guiliani split the name recognition vote. The rubes who go ‘OHH I know that guy, checkmark beside his name.”
“He said July and now he says September and people are losing interest in him, even in his native South. He’s as phony as a two dollar bill, open your eyes.”
He hasn’t even officially declared and he’s beating the other candidates. He’s had a great plan thus far, and unless we find out he’s gay or something, he’ll have the nomination locked up in 8 months.
“Do you think that America is seeking a President in 2008, who in August 2007, is getting his act together?”
American never wanted the campaigns to begin this early in the first place. The current crop on both sides all reek more of ambition than competence. Thompson has been smart by being the “un-candidate” in the meantime, and the polls show it. I suspect you’re more pissed about your chosen candidate losing than Thompson waiting to declare.
I hope that you are right. I based my prediction on the fact that Fred Thompson and John McCain were close when they were in the senate together. Fred Thompson was a supporter of campaign finance reform and often voted with John McCain. I don't doubt that some of Mr. McCain's voters in this poll are people just glad to recognize a name, but some are leftovers from his past runs. Many of these leftovers would gravitate towards someone who had been a friend of Mr. McCain in the past. Another possibility is that Mr. McCain may endorse Fred Thompson if he quits before the South Carolina primary.
Some of the McCain supporters may be just party loyalists who support whichever candidate has the best claim to it being "his turn" to run. No one had any enthusiasm for Bob Dole in 1996, but he did well in South Carolina because many of the stalwarts felt that it was "his turn" to have the nomination. If John McCain is effectively out of the race by December, I don't know where these people will turn. John McCain is the only candidate who can make a strong "it's my turn" argument this time.
Bill
If Fred doesn’t hurry up and get in the race..........AAAHHHHHHGGGGGG!!!! He’s causing me as much stress as the 2000 vote recount in Florida.
No he's not. FDT is now third, behind Romney, at Intrade.
He’s had a great plan thus far...
The plan is so great, that FDT has dropped nine points at Intrade in the last nine days.
The pulse of things in my part of the country is this: The longer Fred delays getting into the race the more folks there are that are drifting over to Romney.
I’m going to give Fred until Labor Day weekend and then I’m moving on. Some of us have a life.
“No he’s not. FDT is now third, behind Romney, at Intrade.”
Ooooo K. You go ahead and rely on a glorified gambling website. I’ll stick to polls that ask actual voters what they think.
Any day now Fred is going to enter the race. Yessir, Fred is coming in soon. You’ll see. His opening campaign speech is just around the corner. *twitches and sweats nervously and wipes brow*
When FDT was in the lead at Intrade ( Fred Takes Lead on InTrade! ), that site was an Oracle of Truth. Now that Fred's lassitude and procrastination has him down in third place, Intrade is a glorified gambling website.
The lastest National ARG Poll has Romney tied with Thompson at 16%. Before the cock crows, you'll probably be dismissing polls as well.
Also, as for Thompson, I think that as people see more of him, his numbers will drop. I know that's what happened to me. I was initially very enthusiastic about a Thompson run and supported it. But, the more I saw and heard him, the less I liked him. And I can't put my finger on what it was that turned me off.
Half of me is saying enough already and declare your candidacy. The other half reminds me it is still very early.
Time will tell whether or not he played this right. Romney is building a pretty strong base here so he better not wait too much longer.
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