Don’t Bomb, Bomb Iran - For now, we should avoid a smoking Tehran.

National Review Online ^ | August 31, 2007 | Victor Davis Hanson

[neverdem]

VDH ping

[Bob J]

Hanson may have it right on this one.

[joseph20]

VDH defending Euro-style “soft power”...

[Caipirabob]

No one knows quite what is going on in Iraq. Yet news that the surge is working and that violence is declining is also bad news for Tehran. Its worst nightmare is that Sunni tribes are no longer aping al Qaeda, but helping Americans. That will only turn attention back to Iranian-back killers. Meanwhile Sunni masters in the region — arming themselves to the teeth — are reminding their kindred Iraqi tribesmen that Iran, not America, is the real enemy of the Arab world.

It would be wonderful to avoid another all out military intervention. If Iraq can pacify itself with our aid, the attention will be focused on Tehran. There will be far more pressure on it's government for their abysmal failures. There will be no outlet for their fanatic's violence and their secularists have just about had it with the current government's oppression. I mean, imagine a gas producing nation where you can't buy gas? Way to go, ahmadinejad...loser.

The author nails the point on the problem with foreign fighters. If Iranian soldiers can't infiltrate into Iraqi society to cause terror because the locals are no longer hostile, those locals are going to have time to remember who their tribal enemies are. they are going to look over the border. Iran will have "an insurgency" of it's own to deal with.

A weakened Tehran will be ill equipped to resist it's secularists. They may last a while, but not too long. The potential to topple Tehran with it's own secularist population grows with each success in Iraq.

Then it would fall to those who reside in the 21st century in Iran to bring the rest of the country with them.

The possibility of undoing all of Democrat Jimmy Carter's damage after all these years is too great to resist.

[dirtbiker]

The possibility of undoing all of Democrat Jimmy Carter's damage after all these years is too great to resist.

It would be a great day when the mistakes of 4 years of Jimah Carter are finally corrected.

Too bad it'll take 30+ years to do it....

[Cindy]

http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html
http://memritv.org/subject/en/121.htm

[Rudder]

And then again he may not.

[johnny7]

Hanson may have it right on this one.

If his strategy proves wrong... the price is nuclear IED's... instead of formed IED's. The question comes down to either fighting on your terms... or responding to theirs.

[Terabitten]

We desperately need a “night of fire.”

Nuke Mecca, Damascus, Teheran, and Pyongyang simultaneously.

Nuke them. It’s the only way to be sure.

[Thermalseeker]

The question comes down to either fighting on your terms... or responding to theirs.

Spot on!

[snoringbear]

“Nuke them. It’s the only way to be sure.”

Well, it could very well come to that. But personally, I am in favor of just watching and waiting for awhile. I have no doubt that Iran will eventually build a nuclear bomb and a delivery system to boot. However, Europe and Israel will be within Iran’s reach much sooner than the U.S. So, why not let the Euro’s do their talk, talk, talk for awhile and then once they’ve been nuked, let’s see how they respond. But, then again, we all know that the Israelis will never allow Iran to progress to the point of having an operational nuclear device much less a delivery system for it. So, the Euro’s will stay safe and contiue with their talk, talk, talk...

[PreciousLiberty]

“So we should continue with the present path — and not bomb or have surrogates bomb Iran. That option is still down the road. For as long as it is possible, the best-case scenario is not a smoking Iran, but a humiliated theocracy that slowly implodes before the world, displaying in their disgrace what the mullahs did to themselves — and perhaps a small reminder of those helpful shoves from us.”

Well...this is the optimistic view of developments. Revolution didn’t happen in Iraq despite far worse pressure.

The pessimistic view is that the pressure will result in further crackdowns in Iran, and the need for an enemy, and then a war. You see, a an enemy and a war unites the populace like nothing else (well, except here in the States, where the propaganda machine is running counter to policy). If all of Iran’s nuclear enrichment is known (not clear) and Iran isn’t obtaining material or bombs elsewhere (not clear), Iran might not have a nuke for a year or more. Once Iran does have the bomb, all bets are off.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best. I personally still expect bombs to drop in Iran within a year or so. Airstrikes could cripple Iran, and especially its military, to the point where it’d be years recovering. How many billions in damage can the US armed forces inflict in a day? I hope it can be done with minimal loss of life, or that the Iranian people have a revolution first.

[RoadTest]

” a strike now on Iran would be a grave mistake”

Yes. Ahmadinajad is far less than 100% approved of by Iranians, but that percentage would increase if the United States made itself a common enemy of the diverse forces in Iran.

[mad_as_he$$]

If it was anyone else but VDH I would call it peace mongering but he has clearly thought this out - -as usual.

[Wings-n-Wind]

Ummmmmm.... errrrr.. a couple of viable alternatives?!?

1. UAV's over the Iraqi/Iranian frontier....

2. Checkpoints on the major ingress roads...

3. "Hellfire" for all Irianian jihadis and IED smugglers...

My personal favorite...

Enough fleet air activity and flying near Iranian airspace to provoke their air FARCE into the air...
-- A little AMRAAM action....
With their Tomcats burning on the desert floor -- thank you for TV coverage...

And this is over in one afternoon!

If they don't want to play ball with their nuclear gamesmanship after these strong signals and incited actions...

Conventional strikes on their facilities will be a fairly easy acocmplishment...

[RightWhale]

Unless the regions mentioned are forever closed to contributing to the global tax base that won’t be happening.

[Bob J]

That’s a line from “Aliens”.

[do the dhue]

Amadjihad wants nukes? We should air deliver them. Hit them before they hit us. Anyone ever play football before? Isn't it better to hit them before they hit you? Walter Peyton was one of the greatest running backs in the league. Defenders will tell you that when necessary, Walter would hit them before they hit him. He had power in his legs to drive through a defender. We have the power to drive through our enemy and we should do it before they have the power to do it to us.

Listen to Amandjihad's rhetoric. He is begging for it. Let's accommodate.

PS: If we are negotiating, I say nuke him to be sure. In reality, I would be happy with a successful bombing mission and/or the liberation of Iran. Don't tell anyone though.