Posted on 10/17/2007 12:17:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.
Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.
For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
But that was three days ago. As of Friday Rudith's 6 point lead is now down to 3 points.
I’m voting for my favorite conservative who can win.
GO, FRED!!
I lived in California for most of my life, am highly politically aware, and had never heard of Duncan Hunter.
My parents still live there, and they had never heard of him until I mentioned him.
Hunter is the “invisible candidate”. I think he would make a good VP, or head of Homeland Security, though. I’m backing Thompson, and I think he will win.
I don’t see him as an asset for the VP slot.
Many of his supporters appear to be completely unreasonable, and probably won’t support Fred. Fred won’t take CA. Hunter’s not a strategic benefit as VP.
Hunter’d be lovely as head of Homeland Security. THAT might engender more support for Fred than putting Hunter in the VP slot.
Any GOP candidate in kalifornia who polls anything showing strong popularity is a rarity.
UNLESS they are a RINO like Ahnold Swastikanegger.
We saaaaaaay we want someone with character and conservative values...who REALLY works hard and doesn't take "crap" from anyone/country.
We saaaay we want to support those that don't have the money people behind them, because they tend to tell the candidates how they SHOULD breathe, and yet....Duncan Hunter doesn't get the votes....very sad.
I just know how hard Duncan Hunter works for the right things for our country. I just haven't seen that in Fred. I have heard him speak, and he says the right things...I just haven't heard any of the "he's done this, and he's done that," that I know to be the case with HUNTER.
You're probably right though...many would wonder if you had a guy that's rumored to not work so hard combined with someone who's DEFINITELY got a fire under his behind and makes good use of every minute of the day...could be trouble in the White House. Secretary of Defense - Head of Homeland Security - all solid citizen, "action" type positions would fit HUNTER to a tee.
That's why all that support him, don't understand why POTUS isn't everyone's first choice for Hunter.
Down here, in "America's Finest City" Hunter's well known...he and his his serving in Iraq son, that is.
Again, I'm not trying to be one of those people you say are the "many" that follow Hunter, I just want to point certain truths out to those reading this thread.
I lived in Saratoga most of my life. Never heard of him.
My parents visit San Diego frequently, as they have family and friends down there. Never heard of him.
Fred did a lot toward improving fiscal responsibility and in the foreign relations area while in the Senate. Just because he didn’t choose YOUR pet projects doesn’t mean his work didn’t have value.
You kind of sound like a hard liner.
And today, I agree with you for the same reasons. Yet, I also understand those that feel "gun shy" to do it again and not vote super Conservative this time.
I really hope Thompson can do all the right things and have the all the abilities to FRY Hillary in the debates. I do. I also think Guiliani could debate the wench REALLY well, even with "one hand tied behind his back," yet I have my problems with him. I've heard him speak and he says many of the things I want to hear, too.
Okay, that's the not so good news. The good news is...we have some great choices in our "pool" and the Left is left with "the wench."
The MSM is scared to death of Hunter, and won’t give him airtime......never have.
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