Posted on 10/17/2007 12:17:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.
Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.
For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
Yes!!! Mitt’s excellent performance in all of the debates, and in all of his public appearances, is beginning to change minds. He is the man to beat Mrs. Bill Clinton.
LOL!!! He's doing that quite well, thankyouverymuch.
oops. I got a server error and didn’t know if my post went through or not.
Women seem to have a history of going for the prettier face when they haven't heard enough to make up their minds.I suppose hearing about Mitt's bankroll isn't going to hurt him any either ...
Did you read the article? Willard is losing "market share" to Fred in Iowa....
“I think McCain can at least afford to stick it out till NH.”
Oh he can afford to, I just don’t think he’s stupid. He’s not getting the nomination and is just wasting time and money.
Well, Tancredo's technically only in debt to maybe about his waist. His cash - debt is only about $200k in the hole. Now Romney's cash - debt is closer to $9 million in red ink.
It’s been discussed several times, as a benefit to both men.
LOL! You’re too much.
Yeah, he's rapidly losing ground in Iowa, despite having tried to buy it early. I hope he kept the receipt.
BS. I don't want my leaders to be "real people." I want them to be outstanding people. People better, smarter, and stronger than me. That's what makes a leader.
If Hunter doesn;t win, there is no stopping the RINO express.
Expect any of the top three to pander left during the general
If Hunter doesn;t win, there is no stopping the RINO express.
Expect any of the top three to pander left during the general
I just cannot see Thompson doing that.
Well, you’ve chosen your robot overlord correctly then.
The rest of us will choose an actual person. Slick Willard can then be decommissioned and sent to dead robot storage to be stored next to Cherry 2000 where he belongs.
Absolutely.
What is the reason for this, and what is the remedy?"
Paging Naomi Wolf!
So when Romney drops out, who do you think gets most of his support?
Spin all you want, my friend. The fact remains that Mitt is enjoying a six-point lead over both Julie-Annie and Thompson.
Yeah, that FRed is such a RINO that he wins polls here at FreeRepublic hands down. We're practically known as "RINO HQ" right?
Wasn’t it a 10 point lead before? Now it’s six, so Romney is really kicking some major a$$ in Iowa!
Yeah, you’re not the one that’s spinning anything. Though, I bet you get pretty dizzy doing whatever it is you’re doing.
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