Posted on 12/03/2007 7:11:08 PM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
A topic I have not seen discussed on FR is "Who will drop out when?". This is of paramount importance, for the drop out will probably recommend one of the remaining candidates. This is key to Fred Thompson's campaign strategy.
I've cherry picked some polls from Real Clear Politics to go along with my opinion.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Paul, Hunter, and Tancredo will bring up the rear.
Will anyone drop after Iowa? Depends on their funds. NH follows five days later Paul will not drop out. Hunter has said he's in for the long haul. That leaves Tancredo. I expect him to drop out first, either after Iowa or NH. Will he recommend Hunter or Thompson? Ideologically, he's closest to Hunter, but he might recommend Thompson because he's the top conservative. If he does before NH, that'll give Fred a little boost.
In NH, Fred is fighting Paul for 4th place. Romney is well ahead, followed by Guiliani and McCain fighting for second. I expect a lot of attacks between now and then. Hunter isn't even listed in the NH poll I saw on Real Clear Politics. I expect it to go Romney, Guiliani, McCain, Thompson, Paul.
Pretend Hunter does drop out--whom will he support? Thompson I believe.
Michigan is next, a week later. Currently, they are rated:
Giuliani Romney Thompson McCain Huckabee Paul 23.7 20.3 14.0 12.3 6.7 3.7
I expect Romney to win in his father's old state, Fred will beat McCain for 3rd, then Huckabee and Paul.
I don't expect any dropouts at this point.
Nevada is next, four days later. Currently they are
Giuliani Romney Thompson McCain Paul Huckabee 28.7 21.0 14.0 9.3 7.3 5.0
If Rudy hasn't won yet, I expect Romney to win this one, with Fred moving up to challenge for second. McCain may begin considering quitting.
A week later is SC. This is make or break for Fred, IMO, although I think he'll continue even if he doesn't win. Here's the latest poll:
Romney Giuliani Thompson Huckabee McCain Paul 19.8 17.8 16.8 13.8 11.0 5.7
I expect Fred to win here. Rudy will be fading, and Fred may pick up some of Huckabee's people who want to go with a leading candidate. Certainly Huckabee's spending and pro-illegal immigrant positions will be well aired in this state.
By this time, I expect McCain to fold and give his recommendation to Fred. They are friends, you know. This will be the turning point in the election.
I also expect Huckabee to start considering to fold around this time.
Three days later comes Florida.
Giuliani Romney Thompson Huckabee McCain Paul 30.3 16.0 12.0 11.7 11.3 4.3
If McCain gives his recommendation to Fred and if Huckabee is fading, then Thompson is challenging Rudy for Florida. If Fred wins FL, I think he has the nomination.
All this speculation does not consider possible scandals involving Rudy or Romney. If this happens I expect the same outcome, Fred, only faster.
I don't expect everyone to agree (hah!), but please post your predictions.
For the sake of our REPUBLIC I hope you are dead on.
I don’t really take issue with your results but they are based on a lot of “ifs”. If the first prediction proves inaccurate that will change the polls to follow for the next state, which in turn will have a bearing on the next state and so on.
I’m not saying you are wrong but it’s like a house of cards, remove just one and it’s a goner.
I don’t see anything to dispute in your predictions... then again handicapping this primary has the feel (and danger) of handicapping this season’s college football games.
All I can say is I’ll be SOOOO glad when the primaries are over. I’m already worn out, and I have almost gone blind from too much prognostication...
if you know what I mean and I think you do
I like the scenario you portray, and hope that Thompson pulls out the FL win in the sequence, then, with the nomination in hand, we can have the very formidable and CONSERVATIVE Thompson/Hunter ticket, assuring Hunter the place to step up his visibility for 2012 and 2016.
From your keyboard to the Lord’s ear...
I suspect Tancredo will drop out next. His campaign has been awfully quiet.
Looks to be a great subject for a friendly betting pool.
I like Thompson a lot so I also hope you are right!
McCain has never let anything embarrass him...
Normally Vice-Presidential candidates, at the minimum, provide their home state. Hunter doesn't even provide that.
There isn't the vaguest, remotest reason for anyone to select Hunter as their VP. People need to give up on that fantasy, too.
I'd prefer Fred, but I'll take Romney any day over the b*tch from New York.
Either of the b*tches from New York.
Not me. While I believe that Fred would be a fine president, the script presented is a "best case scenario" for Fred to win the Republican nomination.
After that, a general election follows. This is the country that elected Bill Clinton. Two times!
I believe the rise in conservatism and the need to rally the base is stronger now than ever before.
GWB let down the conservative base, it showed in 2006, and the rally round the base should occur in 2008.
We shall see, as "bringing the home state" of the VP is NOT going to work this time....
The RINOs drop out and a conservative wins.
Ok,
So then why select as VP someone the overwhelming majority of the country hasn’t heard of, with limited charisma, who is polling at 1% or less in most states?
The weak link in the whole chain is the idea that McCain endorses Fred when he drops out and all the McCain supporters obey McCain and Fred wins Florida.
I'd guess the majority of McCain supporters go to Giuliani or Romney.
No matter who tops the ticket it’s going to be a real struggle for one without the other. Combined they can bring a fairly easy win.
The few things I disagree with Hunter on are the things I agree with Thompson on.
Giuliani Romney Thompson McCain Huckabee Paul
23.7 20.3 14.0 12.3 6.7 3.7
I expect Romney to win in his father’s old state, Fred will beat McCain for 3rd, then Huckabee and Paul.
I don’t expect any dropouts at this point.”
WRONG!
Forget Michigan polls because they didn’t poll RATS to ask who they wanted for the GOP ticket.
You see, the RATS have only one top tier candidate on the ballot. Hillary, and she gets a default win.
All the RATS plan to vote on the GOP ballot, its a totally open primary.
My guess is they will all vote for Ron Paul.
Romney will lose in his native state. He is now finished.
Huck will also be out because he is flat broke after Iowa and would have no way, or time, to raise cash.
The big money power brokers will never support Huck and that is the only way to raise fast cash.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.