Posted on 01/07/2008 7:52:09 AM PST by rightinthemiddle
Anything worse than a strong 2nd in SC would be the end of Fred's campaign IMO. He has put all his eggs in SC, just as Rudy has gone ALL-IN in Florida.
That said, Fred may stick around through Super Tuesday as there are a lot of states that day in which he is polling strongly (I.E. Alabama where he leads comfortably in the last poll) -- but if he struggles in SC I would expect the Super Tuesday support to dry up a lot.
So, he may not drop out after SC, but I think he has to Win or barely place second to have any chance at all.
That said, I have donated and sincerely hope something helps Fred catch fire with the electorate soon.
My guess it will depend on how well he does there.
Keep in mind his campaighn is not well covered by the media and a lot of voters don't know him as a conservative politician.
But once he gets some good press and conservatives discover that he is the only reliable conservative in the race they will rally behind him (i.e. "saddle up").
At that point in time the race will come down to a Rino and Fred. And the Rino will be either Mitt or Rudy.
A perfect analysis.
I think you’re going to get your wish in NH.
As for SC, Fred’s got a lot of work to do to come in number one there. He can either win or survive with a strong second place finish. Not saying he’d get out of the racve if neither of those occur, but it will become progressively more difficult for him if anything other than one of those outcomes is THE outcome.
You are wrong. If McCain wins in NH, he is the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination.
mcCain will next win in Michigan with independents and RATS crossing over.
In SC, Thompson and Huckabee will split the conservative vote, and McCain will win there, too.
Then it’s over.
When Fred drops out, Hunter will be the only conservative candidate left, watch for a Hunter surge after South Carolina.
Has anyone broken down the allotment of delegates across the states? I’d be curious to see where finishing second in every race would get a candidate. It seems that we’ll have multiple winners, the candidate that finishes second in enough races might get the 1230 needed to win the nomination.
Thanks for another knowledgeable source for Fred endorsing Mc Cain.....You ca get some rest now.
Techinically, Iowa doesn’t select the convention delegates until June at the State Convention. The precincts are free to make their own rules regarding how the state convention delegates are bound/not bound at the state convention..
From the following:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IA-R.phtml#0103
....Here’s how we estimate the delegate count on 3 January 2008: (Based on the January 2008 Iowa Caucus results from iowavotes2008.com. Note that zero national convention delegates are allocated during the Precinct Caucuses - national convention delegates are first elected in June.)....
One can assume they will be somewhere close to the Jan. Caucus results but not assume that is 100% the case.
I will say Fred, Rudy and Mitt, in that order seem to be the best candidates. If a prince of Saudi Arabia offered all the candidates 10 million I think all but Rudy and Fred would have taken it. That alone tells me where Rudys heart is and how he thinks concerning America. Fred is more conservative but if we're wanting to trust someones word, Huckabee, McCain are lacking and Romney has no core values so its hard to tell what he will do.
“Didn’t Fred just pick up 25% of the 12 delegates in WY? This is just as big as if he picked up 25% of the 12 delegates in NH.”
Yes, I believe Fred did come in second in Wyoming as far as delegates go. Is there a website or anyone who is keeping a running delegate count through the primary? I made another donation to the red truck at fred08.com and hope all Fred supporters will help any way they can! GO FRED!
That is my fear: The single-issue Dobson mind-numbed robots voting for Huck, pulling away social-conservative votes that should otherwise go to Fred. Thus the Huck people may end up helping to nominate a LESS pro-life nominee.
“Wrong. Iowa had a straw poll months ago. Their CAUCUS last week decided the delegates, but they are assigned proportionally”
Iowa Republicans, who have 40 delegates, conducted a straw poll but elected no convention delegates Thursday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/05/us/politics/05cnd-wyoming.html
You are wrong. If McCain wins in NH, he is the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination.
I thought he and Hunter got 2 each.
Great News! Fred really is the real conservative and the candidate who has been chosen by all of the pro-life organizations who have endorsed so far! GO FRED!
Was hunter even in the latest debate? And didn't he get 0% in Iowa? If so, I guess getting 13% would be a huge surge. Heck since it's a division by zero error I can't even calculate the rate of increase. Fact is Hunter at this point in not a factor even if he endorses Fred. At best it gets him 1% more, but he needs to jump 10 to 20 points to really take get noticed with the media blackout he's facing.
NOTE: I'm not saying Hunter is a good guy or a great conservative. It's jut he hasn't gotten noticed at all and polling 0% in Iowa means he should drop out and help back a candidate that most closely has his views.
How populated is your part of the state? And is is more democrat or rebpulican?
if you’re in a big area that is heavily republican that’s not good for Fred at all. BUt if you’re in a liberal area then it’s probably a matter of spending money where it will have the biggest payoff.
Most likely Jeb Bush would be chosen in a brokered convention.
Especially if GWB works behind the scenes.
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