Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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Posted on 01/07/2008 7:52:09 AM PST by rightinthemiddle
Can Fred win against Obama?
Yes, and they shouldn't have let Iowa distract them from that focus. This is Fred's chance to get established.
At this point, that scenario is more likely than not. Huckabee did poorly in last night's debate but his supporters don't care that he's out of his depth, politics-wise.
Hunter got 1 Fred got 3 in Wyoming.
If Fred doesn't win SC, he's in trouble. If he does lower than a strong second, he's finished. It's his must-have state.
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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You are right . . . results are not binding in Iowa, only an estimate: Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the county conventions, which choose delegates to the district conventions, which in turn selects delegates to the Iowa State Convention. Thus it is the Republican Iowa State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which select the ultimate delegates to the Republican National Convention in Iowa. All delegates are officially unbound from the results of the precinct caucus, although media organizations either estimate delegate numbers by estimating county convention results or simply divide them proportionally.
I am in the area of the upstate which contains Greenville/Spartanburg...home of BMW North America (produces the Roadster) and Michelin’s North American headquarters......so in other words, very populated. I believe for the most part this area is conservative and votes republican. In fact I am sure of it. Both of our state senators are republicans although only one is conservative (Jim DeMint)...the other is Lindsey Graham and that is all I need to say about that.
Not sure if the strategy of a late ad blitz and visit schedule is the smartest -- but it is the strategy Fred has chosen and the one that has worked for him in the past.
Fred seems to believe that getting yourself out there constantly at the end is more important that a long drip drip drip campaign. The problem I see though is that a lot of people have chosen a candidate, and that means Fred will have to work twice as hard to change thier minds.
Luckily though, the 3 major issues in South Carolina - Immigration, Iraq, Pro-life are the three issues Fred can stomp the other 4 in.
I don't know that I hope he'll win, but if he does you can be sure the media will get it all wrong. New Hampshire allows independents to vote in the Republican primary. If they end up pushing him to victory, it won't necessarily say a thing about Republican voters.
South Carolina will be a wake-up.
OK now for all Hucks negatives and they are numerous. He is the staunches pro-life candidate in the race with the exception of Duncan. Say whay you will about Huck...one thing is for sure he is pro-life.
I am hoping it is a nail-biter that gives niether of them a big push.
My big hope though is that Huckster's bombing in the debates causes him to drop behind Rudy and Paul in NH. The furthur down Huck finishes the more it puts a stake in his Iowa win, and the more reasons it gives his Southern supporters to look at Fred.
SC will be big. I just hope the South doesn’t get conned by the preacher man.
On the other hand, and no offense to Fred supporters, but how long before we start hearing from them that 3rd place is good enough? It happened when he started his Iowa push, a 2nd or very strong 3rd place finish led the day after the caucus to a virtual tie for third place, 11% behind the second place finish was a "strong" finish.
BTW, I don't see any reason for him to drop out before Super Tuesday since there are a number of southern states that day. The only thing that would prevent him from staying in is a lack of money, and his fundraising stunts with the "little red truck" seem to be working out for him so far.
Yes, Bush stopped McCain in South Carolina -- it was a head-to-head battle.
We won't have that luxury this time. Huckabee and Thompson will split the conservative vote in half, and McCain will win South Carolina, too!
I agree on the surface, but the whole "Southern strategy" is predicated on a solid jump off in SC. If he doesn't get the solid push from SC, there is no reason for the voters in the Super Tuesday Southern states to stick with him.
If he does not finish 1st or a strong 2nd in SC then sticking around until Super Tuesday is just an exercise in futility, and I can garauntee that I will not help fill-up the Red Pickup for a trip to nowhere.
Maybe, maybe not, I think some states give all delegates the the winner and none to the others.
Two comments/questions about that: 1) Fred is getting the pro-life lobby endorsements. Why? 2) The President can't do much to stop abortion but appoint judges that will not make up laws out of the constitution. Who do you think will appoint better judges? Fred or Huck?
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