Goodbye New Hampshire, hello South Carolina (Fred moves on)

boston.com ^ | January 6, 2008 | Bryan Bender, Globe Staff

[rightinthemiddle]

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Former Senator Fred Thompson is packing it in in New Hampshire after tonight's GOP debate and heading to South Carolina to launch a 11-day bus tour through the Palmetto State state that will take him through the Republican primary there on Jan. 19.

"The plan all along was to take the positive results in Iowa and springboard into South Carolina," said spokesman Jeff Sadosky. "The next dance for us is in South Carolina."

Thompson, who received high marks for his debate performance in Manchester on Saturday night, remains in the back of the pack in recent New Hampshirehire polls and is hoping to fare better in the South after his third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday, Sadosky said.

But Thompson, a former movie actor, might want to consider the lesson learned by rival Rudy Giuliani.

The former New York City mayor, with barely a "thank you, you've been a wonderful audience'' to voters, left Iowa four days beforethe caucuses.

Giuliani never made Iowa a key part of his election strategy; the New York pol's pro-abortion rights stance does not sit well with the Christian conservatives who make up a substantial part of the Iowa Republican electorate.

But Giuliani ended up finishing a distant sixth in Iowa, garnering fewer than half the votes won by maverick Representative Ron Paul of Texas.

[rightinthemiddle]

Fred's plan all along was to focus on South Carolina. A win there will help shut up the critics, but it won't be easy. I actually think a McCain loss and poor showing by Huckabee in NH will help Fred.

[rightinthemiddle]

ping

[Greg F]

I’m hoping for a NH win by McCain, just to confuse the delegate count and muddy the waters. Go Fred in South Carolina!

[Prokopton]

Didn’t Fred just pick up 25% of the 12 delegates in WY? This is just as big as if he picked up 25% of the 12 delegates in NH.

[taxcontrol]

It looks to me that with this election years crop of GOP candidates, Fred’s strategy of finishing in the 15% range for the first few might be a worthwhile strategy. However, that requires conserving cash and focusing the spending where you can get the best results long term.

Going to be an interesting year.

[RexBeach]

OK, I gotta ask, what happens if Fred loses SC? Is that end of his campaign?

[Greg F]

OK, I gotta ask, what happens if Fred loses SC? Is that end of his campaign?
_____________________

I’ll leave that for someone that knows more about primaries than I do to answer. It seems to me that if Fred doesn’t make a move somewhere before the “super tuesday” set of primaries he can’t win the nomination through the primaries. That said, if the delegate count stays so confused he should stay in through the convention in case he can get the nod there as a compromise candidate.

[Greg F]

Yah, Fred got 3 delegates in Wyoming.

[rightinthemiddle]

Here’s some good news for Fred.

http://www.lifenews.com/nat3594.html

I’ll post this as a thread as well.

[Greg F]

I just looked this up this morning, so no guarantee it’s accurate, but my delegate count so far:

So Far:

Romney, Mitt 15 delegates (Iowa and Wyoming)
Huckabee, Mike 13 delegates from Iowa
Thompson, Fred Dalton 13 (Iowa and Wyoming)
McCain, John S. 5 (Iowa) with a NH win likely.
Paul, Ron 4 (Iowa)
Giuliani, Rudolph W. 1 (Iowa)
Duncan Hunter 1 (Wyoming)

[for-q-clinton]

Good point about the delegates. People forget it’s delegate votes you need to win. And it’s not all or nothing when you win/lose.

This may end up being a brokered convention. If that happens who is the likely nominee? The guy that spent the most(Romney)? The guy the RNC funded the most (McCain & Rudy...guessing)? The guy that can unite the party (FRED!)? Or the guy that is guaranteed to lose (Huck)?

[samtheman]

I’m hoping for a NH win by McCain, just to confuse the delegate count and muddy the waters. Go Fred in South Carolina!

As much as I hate to do it (since I hate McCain worse than any of them), I have to agree with you and hope McCain wins. It's probably the best way to keep this race wide open.

[Greg F]

Corrected.

Romney, Mitt 17 delegates (9 Iowa and 8 Wyoming)
Huckabee, Mike 13 delegates from Iowa
Thompson, Fred Dalton 8(5 Iowa, 3 Wyoming)
McCain, John S. 5 (Iowa) with a NH win likely.
Paul, Ron 4 (Iowa)
Giuliani, Rudolph W. 1 (Iowa)
Duncan Hunter 1 (Wyoming)

[longtermmemmory]

the media template forbids this coverage.

[Prokopton]

Iowa was a straw poll, no delegates were selected.

[Greg F]

Iowa was a straw poll, no delegates were selected.
_____________________

Wrong. Iowa had a straw poll months ago. Their CAUCUS last week decided the delegates, but they are assigned proportionally. So Huckabee got 13, Mitt 9, Thompson 5, McCain 5, Ron Paul 4, Guilianni 1 . . . it counted!

[trisham]

bump!

[LRS]

Put me under that column of thought as well. I think a NH win for McCain helps Fred...

[deport]

OK, I gotta ask, what happens if Fred loses SC? Is that end of his campaign?

---

Imo, Thompson has got to win SC or at the very least finish a close 2nd. He needs major momentum going into Super Tuesday...... I hope McCain wins big in NH tomorrow further pushing Romney down a bit, then we have MI, NV, and SC coming up before FL and Super Tuesday.

[pallis]

Go Fred! We need a little honesty.