Posted on 01/07/2008 7:52:09 AM PST by rightinthemiddle
The candidate who wins the most districts wins 11 bonus delegates, so there is a popular/aggregate vote component.
I’ve been playing with delegate numbers and guesses on a spreadsheet. I don’t think any of them will drop out. I don’t think anyone will get the 1191 delegates to win the nomination outright - as things stand now.
The Paulians are running a script against the website to load their numbers...
They run scripts on all these polls. You can only compete if you do the same. If you are inclined to play, you can check out iOpus imacros free download. There are more efficient methods, which they use [they have talked about them at RP forums] but, if you are not a hacker, this is about the best you can do.
You're wrong. Romney personally campaigned in Wyoming, and reportedly mobilized folks from neighboring Utah to organize. Wyoming has a solid 10% or so Mormon population, which makes for a nice, built-in and motivated base. I think Thompson did fine.
Every campaign works to set expectations. That said, the race is too dynamic to really know whether any given finish in any given primary is a plus or a minus. It depends on expectations, and on momentum, and on which candidate beat your candidate, and on whether the winning candidate has any prospects of turning the win into a sweep, and on whether it looks as if another candidate is about to pull out of the race.
The fact is, as it stands right now Thompson is probably best-positioned in the race to pick up the supporters of any other candidate — should another candidate drop out. Given how close the race is, that would vault him to the front. So at this point I see three plausible paths for Thompson: 1. win or get a strong second in SC, and then consolidate the South; 2. survive until another candidate drops out and gain the backing of that candidate’s supporters; 3. hold out until a brokered convention.
I won’t attempt to predict the specific likelihood of these scenarios, since the race is too unpredictable right now. The race is simply too complex, though, to project whether an x place finish in x primary will finish off a candidate — there are too many variables. That said, certainly Thompson will be in the best shape if he finishes first or a strong second in SC — I don’t think anyone’s disputing that.
I think that Huck is a fringe Pro-lifer so he will pick pro-life judges. Fred is a guy who will pick people who will read the constitution which does not say a thing about pro-life so he will pick those types. Fred did get a few endorsements from pro-life groups who are hoping that he will pick judges that read the constitution. I would say it is a tie.
What you describe is a far-cry from a tie.
A judge that rules in favor of life based on his personal beliefs is an activist judge. And we don’t need anymore activist judges. SUre they may agree with you on that point, but what about other things? Will they also mandate we pay for illegals to get free college education? Or that everyone is entitled to free health care?
I’ll take a reasoned judge that knows the constitutin doesn’t protect abortion as a right over an activist for life. They both will end up being pro-life, but one comes with a lot more risks.
You are correct. BTW, I am NOT a Huckster supporter at all. I am for Fred or Romney. Regardless of who wins, I think we need to be careful to pick the best candidate to beat Obama Mania.
McCain sold conservatives down the river with the illegal immigration/amnesty bill (WHICH HE WROTE) with Ted Kennedy and the disasterous McCain/Feingold “campaign finance reform” bill. I will not support him - period.
Thompson/Hunter in 2008!
It’s the strategy that worked for him in his come from behind win in TN and he is banking on SC being more like TN than like IA. We shall see, but I think he has pretty good instincts and is staying pretty agile.
For the general public, he just isn't engaging enough, so I am not sure he will attract those people, but I could be totally off base. The one campaigns supporters that I see naturally going to Fred are Duncans, all the rest I personally think they would split between Mitt and McCain. I hope that you save this email and send it right back to me if I am wrong, because to have Fred as President would make me happy. The general election is what scares me to death. In my gut I don't see him winning, and I know a whole bunch of people that feel the same.
Whether we want to believe it or not, appearance and attitude do matter. But as I said, please ping me if/when I am proved wrong, I will deserve it.
I am probably one of the few here that think we really do have a pretty decent slate of candidates, and all but one of them (except Huck) I would be thrilled to support, and vote for. Heck I would in the end vote for Huck in the general, but since my priority is the WOT, I would do so only with a heavy heart.
I do agree though that this is a very open race, and things will change with every single primary. That is why I don't think any of them will drop out before Super Tuesday, unless financial constraints really make it impossible for them to continue.
Thanks for your civil response. Here on FR, I think all candidates have supporters who have engaged in acrimony and turned off others. There are simply more Thompson supporters here, so it’s magnified with him, I think. Romney’s, Hunter’s and earlier Giuliani’s supporters all dished it out just as much in my view. I will say McCain’s and Huck’s supporters here seem to be a bit more low-key so far — but mostly I think it’s because they haven’t been in the thick of the battles since last spring. It comes down to the fact that we’re all angry about our respective candidates being subject to low blows from others — and as much as Thompson supporters are accused of dishing it out, on Thompson threads there have been plenty of nasty anti-Thompson posters, just as there are anti-other-candidate-posters on other candidates’ threads.
To the main point: I believe polls have shown that Thompson tends to be the second choice of the majority for whom he’s not the first choice. This makes sense, because his credentials do appeal to social, small government, and national security conservatives.
I won’t be sending you any “I told you so” posts no matter what happens, because I’m not about to make any predictions. I’m only making a case against counting any of these guys out — I’m not going to make any calls about who will ultimately prevail.
It’s also interesting that so many GOP-ers just view things so differently. Personally I can easily see Thompson winning the election against Obama (because his substance, experience and good humor would make him look like a lightweight), or Hillary (because his calm and reasoned demeanor would make her look like a screeching harpy). Many people I know feel the same way — I was amazed to hear my lifelong union/moderate democrat mother-in-law say that she saw Thompson on TV discussing Pakistan and they thought he made a lot of sense. This was unprompted — I’ve never discussed whom I support with them. All else being equal, they would always prefer to vote donk — but they don’t want to go down the Clinton road again and they think Obama isn’t ready/isn’t necessarily to be trusted.
Personally, I could not see Romney winning in the general — I can’t see him beating Obama because Obama comes across as much warmer and more genuine, and I can’t see him beating the ‘toons because they would paint his flip-floppery and tendency to shade the truth the way we painted Kerry’s and Gore’s (and that would neutralize the ‘toons’ own problems in this area). McCain, I think, would melt down and have a Howard Dean moment, thus losing to the donks. Giuliani and Huck are wild cards — I think they can both come across as personally likeable, but I cannot see how either of them wins without all three branches of the Reagan coalition.
It’s crazily, wildly unpredictable — did anyone at all predict just a few months ago that Huckabee would slaughter Romney in Iowa, or that McCain had even a chance of coming back and leading the polls nationally? I’ve never seen a race like this — it would be a lot of fun if we all weren’t so invested in it. :)
What a load.
Hunter supporters have been VICIOUSLY attacking us for months, and repeatedly telling us that FRed should drop out and support Hunter. It’s no wonder some people were a bit snarky.
Most of us like Hunter a lot, but his supporters are something else again. And I WAS a Hunter supporter right at the beginning.
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