Posted on 01/12/2008 8:15:09 AM PST by GOPGuide
The seven day campaign leading up to Michigan’s Republican Presidential Primary began with a toss-up between Mitt Romney and John McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found Romney with 26% of the vote, McCain with 25%, and Mike Huckabee with 17%. The survey was conducted on Wednesday night, immediately following the New Hampshire Primary.
Those results reflect a substantial turnaround since the last Rasmussen Reports survey in the state. In early December, it was a three-way race with Huckabee, Romney, and Rudy Giuliani all within two points of each other. At that time, McCain was a distant fifth, attracting just 8% of the vote.
The current election poll finds that Giuliani has slipped from 19% support in early December to 6% today. In addition to the frontrunners, he now trails Fred Thompson who is the top choice for 9% of voters and Ron Paul who attracts 8%.
As was the case in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race in Michigan is likely to be quite fluid during the final week of campaigning. Just 57% of Likely Republican Primary Voters are certain they will end up voting for their current favorite. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of McCain voters are certain they will vote for him along with 55% of Romney supporters. As for those who support Huckabee, just 41% are that certain.
McCain and Huckabee are leading in the South Carolina Primary which will be held just four days after Michigan votes.
In Michigan, Romney is viewed favorably by 71% of Likely Primary Voters. Sixty-nine percent (69%) have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Giuilani 64% offer a positive assessment, Huckabee gets good reviews from 59%, Thompson from 57%, and Paul from 33%.
McCain is seen as the most electable candidate. Seventy-two percent (72%) say he would be somewhat or very likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 30% who consider McCain Very Likely to win if nominated.
Romney is close on the electability front—67% think he would be at least somewhat likely to win including 25% who rate his prospects as Very Likely.
Electability used to be the strongest suit for Giuliani among Republican Primary voters. However, in Michigan, just 49% think he would be even Somewhat Likely to win if nominated.
Forty-six percent (46%) say Huckabee would be at least somewhat likely to win in November, 33% say the same about Thompson, and 17% believe Paul would have a chance.
Following a pattern seen in other places, Romney has a slight lead among Republican voters while McCain leads among Independents and others. If Independent voters make up a larger share of the Primary voters, that will help McCain and hurt Romney’s prospects. The current survey estimates that 76% of the voters will be Republicans.
I think you nailed it there. I’ve talked to several staunch Dems in my area and they have said they would rather vote for McCain or Giuliani than for Obama or Clinton. I went a step further and asked them if they’d vote for Thompson instead of Obama or Clinton, a couple of them admitted they’d seriously consider it. These are neighbors of mine and not stupid people, they’ve just been lifelong Dems - but, they’re beginning to see things more clearly.
Still, I am now interested to see what % Fred does pull in Michigan, he has not campaigned there or advertised at all and this was taken before the last Debate I believe -- so I am interested to see what would be responsible for his support doubling in the state.
Do you sense anything at all up there that might explain a Fred jump in the polls from 5 to 9%? Or do you think this might just be an outlier?
I know 9% is nothing to get excited about, but when a candidate doubles thier support in a week with no apparent mechanism it does raise ones eyebrows.
I think the debate helped him a TON. There’s also a problem here with illegals, and I think Fred’s firm stance on it also helped him. Not sure on the Romney thing yet, simply because I’m a Fred Girl. The problem is, independents and democrats are going to vote for McCain, which makes his numbers highly suspect.
OLD POLL
“... immediately following the New Hampshire Primary.”
Mitt PING!
IMHO that’s the smart move. The race needs to continue into states where they still maintain the quaint custom of only allowing party members to pick party nominees.
Yup, that makes sense. If Fred can move up to third place, then it's off to a brokered convention and President Freddie Dalton Thompson!
Isn't is nice the way things have ended up after decades of manipulating voting laws and regulations: Liberals get to choose the Republican candidate.
Of course, the opposite is also true: Republicans can vote for Dims. And Independents can vote for anyone. But, it appears Republican voters don't have the nads to fight back.
I thought Romney's ads here were a good idea- focus on the failing Michigan economy and tout what he'd do to help. But it doesn't look like its working in the polls. I would guess the underlying related component to unemployment is health care. And I can see the sheeple wanting government health care because they are unemployed.
Michigan has really become one of the most liberal states. Its sad too because even West Michigan, a once hard core Christian conservative area, is becoming more and more liberal. I want to believe Michiganders will wake up. But the re-election of Jenny has shown me this state is doomed.
MI is an Open Primary.
Going to be a lot of moonbats crossing to vote now.
Thank you to the party leaders who decided to punish states.
Great job of unintended consequences.
Although I’m sure they won’t give a damn, it is another reason why I will not send one cent to any national party or organization at all.
Totally FUBAR.
I like that .357 :)
A long drawn out primary that produced a viable GOP candidate vrs Clinton would make the November General Election as Win-Lose situation for the Democrats, much better if they have acceptable candidates on both sides to control the outcome no matter what we peons do.
Michiganistan is a lost cause...
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