Posted on 01/12/2008 8:15:09 AM PST by GOPGuide
The seven day campaign leading up to Michigan’s Republican Presidential Primary began with a toss-up between Mitt Romney and John McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found Romney with 26% of the vote, McCain with 25%, and Mike Huckabee with 17%. The survey was conducted on Wednesday night, immediately following the New Hampshire Primary.
Those results reflect a substantial turnaround since the last Rasmussen Reports survey in the state. In early December, it was a three-way race with Huckabee, Romney, and Rudy Giuliani all within two points of each other. At that time, McCain was a distant fifth, attracting just 8% of the vote.
The current election poll finds that Giuliani has slipped from 19% support in early December to 6% today. In addition to the frontrunners, he now trails Fred Thompson who is the top choice for 9% of voters and Ron Paul who attracts 8%.
As was the case in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race in Michigan is likely to be quite fluid during the final week of campaigning. Just 57% of Likely Republican Primary Voters are certain they will end up voting for their current favorite. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of McCain voters are certain they will vote for him along with 55% of Romney supporters. As for those who support Huckabee, just 41% are that certain.
McCain and Huckabee are leading in the South Carolina Primary which will be held just four days after Michigan votes.
In Michigan, Romney is viewed favorably by 71% of Likely Primary Voters. Sixty-nine percent (69%) have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Giuilani 64% offer a positive assessment, Huckabee gets good reviews from 59%, Thompson from 57%, and Paul from 33%.
McCain is seen as the most electable candidate. Seventy-two percent (72%) say he would be somewhat or very likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 30% who consider McCain Very Likely to win if nominated.
Romney is close on the electability front—67% think he would be at least somewhat likely to win including 25% who rate his prospects as Very Likely.
Electability used to be the strongest suit for Giuliani among Republican Primary voters. However, in Michigan, just 49% think he would be even Somewhat Likely to win if nominated.
Forty-six percent (46%) say Huckabee would be at least somewhat likely to win in November, 33% say the same about Thompson, and 17% believe Paul would have a chance.
Following a pattern seen in other places, Romney has a slight lead among Republican voters while McCain leads among Independents and others. If Independent voters make up a larger share of the Primary voters, that will help McCain and hurt Romney’s prospects. The current survey estimates that 76% of the voters will be Republicans.
Rudy McRombee. What’s the difference?? Feh.
I guess I have to root for romney here. Maybe if he wins it hurts Huckabee and McCain in SC, and Fred gets it done there.
I think there’s a difference. I’d much rather have Romney than the other two.
Best thing that could happen for Dems would be a McCain Administration. That way their political agenda would be advanced and the GOP would get all the political blame for the disastrous consequences of their agenda.
I don’t think these pollsters have a clue. They are too biased to even ask questions effectively.
FWIW, I spent too much time in MA while the guy was gov. No thanks.
That’s exactly my preference as well.
POLLs-ution
POLLS everywhere and everytime are a real pollution of the primaries people can’t really interpret.
Areal question for me would be about the fundings of the poll companies
The Democrats are all over the place on who to vote for in Michigan, though. Some are voting for McCain, some Democrats are telling their people to vote for Huckabee, and KOS is telling them to vote for Romney.
Agreed. McNuts and Huckaboom are just too liberal.
I am actually shocked at Fred’s number here. He has not polled over 4-5% in Michigan in any poll recently. For him to get 9% is a huge surprise — it probably means nothing other than he gets 4th instead of 5th, but it is a surprise none the less.
I may actually vote for Romney here in Michigan simply because I don’t want McCain, and would love a brokered convention.
I’ve always been crazy but it’s kept me from voting McCain.
actually it would make more sense for them to go for somebody who has not won so they can keep the R race wide open.
“Giuliani’s poll collapse appears to have helped both Romney and McCain pick up voters.”
With a few to Huckaphony as well. Makes sense they would gravitate to the next most liberal candidates.
Interesting that Thompson has moved ahead of Rudy in Michigan. I don’t think he’s campaigned there at all. I need to read up on this thing and figure out what states mete their votes out according to percentages and which ones are winner take all.
To quote the Wicked Witch of the West - “What a world!” We’re going to have our nominee selected by Democrats and worst of all - Independents. If we are going to get knifed, I’d prefer the deed be done by the Democrats. However wrong their political views are, at least they’ve picked a side. Down with fence-straddlers I say!
Dems will rush to vote for McCain.
Michigan is an open primary?? The date for registration has to already passed.
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