Posted on 01/18/2008 11:07:48 PM PST by John Semmens
JOHN SEMMENS: Will rising fuel costs spur public transit?
Published: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/business/yourmoney/autos/story/3790516p-13327623c.html
With world crude oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel and prices at the gas pump exceeding $3 per gallon in most parts of the country, all the ingredients would seem to be in place for dramatic changes in our daily commuting patterns, with millions of Americans shifting from private cars to public transit. That's the way markets are supposed to work: Higher prices encourage consumers to seek less-costly alternatives, substituting margarine for butter, Hondas for Cadillacs, a cup of McDonald's coffee for Starbucks.
Reducing automobile use and encouraging public transportation is said to have other benefits as well: less traffic congestion; less air pollution; and a more-satisfied workforce, as fewer people start the day frustrated or angry from the morning commute.
In fact, even before oil prices reached their current record levels, many people were suggesting that the government push consumer costs higher by increasing gasoline taxes. The assumption is that higher prices would result in less gasoline being used; it's the basic law of supply and demand.
However, the American people - known for their fierce independence as well as their common-sense frugality - don't always act the way academic theorists and computer models (even free-market computer models) say they should act.
Indeed, the dramatic rise in gasoline prices over the past several years seems to have had almost no impact at all on the driving habits of most Americans. The National Automobile Dealers Association, for example, reports that sales of larger vehicles are still robust. In 2006, the last year for which final numbers are available, nearly a million more Americans bought light trucks than bought automobiles - the sixth year in a row in which truck sales exceeded car sales.
Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices more than doubled during the 1995-2005 period (the latest for which both fuel and travel data are available). In theory, an increase of this magnitude should have driven many Americans to alternate modes of transportation. Instead, automobile travel increased by 23 percent. This was twice as fast as the 11 percent population growth during the same period.
As for the notion that rising fuel costs would inspire people to use public transportation, the data do not support this theory either. While gasoline prices were doubling, public transportation ridership - including all forms of urban public transportation, as well as intercity buses and Amtrak - increased by only 7 percent, less than the rate of population growth.
In fact, public transportation's share of travel has actually declined in recent years, from around 7 percent of the total in 1995 to around 6 percent in 2005.
Despite the dramatic increase in gasoline and diesel fuel prices, most Americans continue to forgo public transportation.
There are several reasons for this. The most obvious is the fact that Americans like the freedom to come and go as they please, on their own schedules, not somebody else's.
Americans also value their time. Public transportation is slow compared to automobile travel, with the typical trip taking twice as long as driving a car. The amount of time available in any given day is fixed, so those who can afford to do so put a premium on conserving this valuable resource.
There's a third reason higher gasoline prices are not driving people away from personal automobiles: the fact that many Americans - even those with limited budgets - are making a conscious choice to spend more on certain things, while perhaps cutting back in other areas. Thus, they are willing to pay extra for the convenience and time savings associated with the personal automobile.
The hope that rising gasoline prices or increased gasoline taxes will substantially reduce automobile travel by inducing people to choose public transportation is unrealistic.
Far from being disdained and disparaged as an "energy waster," the automobile should be hailed for its ability to save our most precious resource: time.
John Semmens is a research fellow at the Independent Institute, 100 Swan Way, Oakland, Calif. 94621; Web site: www.independent.org. For information on TII's funding, please go to http://www.mediatransparency.org/recipientgrants.php?recipientID=1119.
I learned that line from a documentary about the London Blitz. This guy said, “You can get used to anything. ANYTHING!”
I get it. Or at least I think I do.
You could have picked a better analogy than that.....
American economists who think US$3/gallon is expensive and will reduce consumption haven’t traveled abroad, some countries in Europe has had in inflation and time adjusted dollars, well over $3/gallon since the late 1990’s due to high VAT and enviro taxes on petrol.
The question is ‘when will the price of oil affect and £ currency car owners in the wallet?’, then we’ll know what the actual inflection point has been reached.
Also, using margarine as an example in the first paragraph was intentional irony? The cost/quality of margarine is directly linked to the commodity price of corn, and the commodity price of corn is now being driven by the biofuel sector.
No. “Public transit” meets the need of only a very few people. More oil now! Drill ANWAR, and the Gulf of Mexico now! Drill of the coasts NOW! And start building more nuke power plants immediately.
Pompous crowd applauds. Phhhttt
Don’t forget you could only purchase gas 2 days a week.
No argument here.
It actually was the first time I’ve watched him. He was kissing some serious ass. I’m not acquainted with NY politics but none of the act I watched tonight represented anyone outside of that hall.
The mood is good because of the cut in NYC property taxes and the rebate.
What politician doesn't. On that note I am off to bed.
That is not good. Property tax should not be levied on residential homes to start with and giving people their tax money back just so Washington can tax it again is messed up. We have officially lost the pen war.
Two truths about public transportation:
1) Liberals love it because they envision forcing YOU to take trains, subways and blight rail while THEY travel our less-congested roads; less congested because they taxed you into public transportation being all you can afford. Their transportation model is Beijing where the masses (YOU) have to pedal a bicycle while the elites (THEM) ride around in limos. That’s how liberals think.
2) In the South, particularly in the summer, mass transit will never work. Why? Because public transit never takes you where you want to go. It takes you a couple of blocks from where you want to go. By the time you’ve walked the final blocks, you have sweated through your clothes in 90-degree heat and 80-percent humidity. It takes just a day or two of that to decide you’d rather take your car.
It doesn't even take me a minute or two. I jump into The Dodge Ram and off I go.
When the ADDED Fee for a “Pizza Delivery” jumps to $5 or more, will you miss having a Car?
Or will you take the bus both ways, to getr your pie?
Folks think buses and light rail are all the rage, until they have to sit next to some guy that just peed himself a couple of hours before, stinks to high heavens and hitting on the cutie sitting across the isle.
It’s great to talk about what you do in that situation, until you realize the guy is probably mental and hasn’t the faculties to care if he severely injurs you, her or it is he who goes to the E.R.
Yep, your car and $10 bucks per gallon will start looking quite reasonable after a few of those.
After my divorce, I had to bus it for a while. I saw enough to know that’s not my choice. My ten minute ride to work suddenly became 45 minutes to an hour, if I was lucky enough to catch the transfers, otherwise it could be an hour and a half.
Good times... Blah!
IMO, mass transit is akin to an incinerator to burn public funds.
Nope. Next!
Efficiency of transport (which is largely illusory) works best in urban areas, but even there more time has to be budgeted for getting to and from, leading to mass inefficiency.
I went broke 4 years ago and have lived without a car in a very large city all this time. To top it off, I’m in very poor health now and can’t work - can barely walk.
Anyway, I rode the bus for two years to get basic things done, like banking and grocery shopping. It was hell. Then I had a run-in with some gangstas and swore “never again.”
So now, still completely destitute, I have to pay $30-$40 just to go by taxi the 6 mile round-trip to my PO Box for royalty checks and to my bank to deposit them - just once a month, obviously. That’s my food budget for a week, as I live on $100-$150 per month over my basics.
I don’t have any answers, that’s for sure. Except I may be the only person in the US *making* money on the oil price increases, not spending more.
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