Posted on 03/08/2008 3:50:56 PM PST by omega4179
Edited on 03/08/2008 7:53:12 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Barack Obama won the Wyoming caucuses Saturday, beating Hillary Clinton by double digits after a day of historic turnout in the state.
With 96 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had 59 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent. Both candidates campaigned in the state ahead of the caucuses, but the onus was on Obama to regain his momentum after Clinton disrupted his winning streak Tuesday, scoring wins in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island.
Her victories kept her campaign alive, pushing the race forward to Wyoming, where just 12 convention delegates in 23 county caucuses were at stake. Next up is Mississippi, which holds its primary Tuesday, and then Pennsylvania, which votes April 22.
With the almost unprecedented political attention, turnout was high as thousands of Wyoming voters deluged caucus sites.
Obama got a big bump from Albany County, which contains the University Wyoming. The state Democratic Party reported 75 percent of caucus-goers there went for Obama.
“I live in a city whose population is more than 10X this....in one county..... tell me again why ANY of this matters? Based on my independent,albeit anecdotal polling, most are still more concerned with the outcome of this years American Idol”
In the delegate race, it matters. Only 7,000 votes, but Obama gained about 3 delegates on Clinton with this win. This plus Mississippi will undo part of her Ohio gains.
“WY is moving to the left like its northern neighbor, where Ted Turner has bought up so much property.” - Not really ...
” Maybe Obamamania has now come to WY too. Probably up in Jackson County in particular” - Obama is appealling to the kids on College campus and related academic precincts.
What is amazing is the energy, money, and passion behind Obama. Yet it remains a narrow slice of the electorate:
1. people too young to remember how bad a similar Jimmy Carter was.
2. Liberal progressive academic types.
3. Blacks
I worry about a weak economy and a weak campaign hurting McCain, but otherwise, McCain’s got so many lines of attack to hammer Obama:
- Obama is a left-liberal extremist
- Obama lacks experience to be CinC and has naive views on foreign policy
- Obama’s “patriotism gap” compared with
- Obama’s tax hikes and spending spree will hurt the economy
- obama is too anti-Israel and too soft on the islamic jihadists
- On Iraq, I honestly beleive he will mop the floor with Obama. Nobody wants to lose a war and McCain can make the case that only he will win the war and bring the troops home *with honor*.
The real GOP weak spot is going to be the economy. We have prospect of near 0% growth and/or recession, and
2 out of 3 say the economy is going in the wrong direction. The Democrats will try a redo on 1992 grounds. The Dems will make the economy the issue. McCain needs to bone up to survive the attacks on those grounds. He needs Gramm and Romney and others helping him on this.
Basically, the said Obama will win either in states that blacks are a majority of Democrat voters or in states where blacks are such a small minority that racial tensions are non-existent.
Hillary will win in states where blacks are not a large enough part of the Democrat voters to change the outcome but are large enough to cause racial tensions with lunchpail democrats.
It is not a nice theory, but it has so far proven accurate.
“Of course the local paper did manage to find the typical “Republican” who saw Obama speak and is going to vote for him in November.”
This shills are usually fed to the media by the campaign.
They call 1,000 Republicans and find a few that decide to switch. no biggie.
If you look at polls right now, McCain is behind, but
in McCain v Obama, they are pulling about equal numbers of ‘crossovers’ - the difference today is that # of self-identified Democrats is higher than # of self-identified Republicans in the polls.
“Obama will win Texas once the caucus votes are tallied.”
Obama campaign already claimed a delegate victory.
“Wyoming doesn’t count” - Those words were actually said by Chris Matthews. They were in the tank for McCain.
Obama won the 133 Democrats in WY?
Very often in GOP states, the demonRATs there are are even loonier left than they are are average.
Yes, McPain has ammunition that he can use, but will he, like Robert J. Dole in 1996, leave perfectly good issues on the table and defer to the Democrat by default? If he has no more passion that did Dole, he won’t go any further than Dole did. He can even cause Republican senators like Cornyn and McConnell to lose.
There was a congressional special election March 8 in Baton Rouge, and the Democrat turnout was 20,000 more than the Republican turnout, and this district has been GOP since 1975.
LO
When is the actual special election? These are canaries in the coal mine.
“Don’t discount a big GOP crossover to vote Obama. I’m considering it myself, but want to wait another week or so and see how the polls shake out. If it stays in single digits for Hillary, I won’t bother.”
There is zero benefit in running up the score for either candidate right now. Hillary is dead candidate walking and the proportional allocations mean that your vote really doesnt add up to a hill of beans.
It lokos lkie Ombaa has won Wimonyg hilandy. Halrily dndi’t hvae a ccahne.—http://www.anvari.org/log/20030916.1803_first-and-last-letter-research.html
“Obama won the 133 Democrats in WY?”
Twelve delegates at stake. According to this article, Obama won at least seven and Hillary won at least four. There is one outstanding.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/08/wyoming.caucus/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
She'll lose Mississippi as well...
They have a legitimate reason to claim victory. With 41% of the caucus vote tallied, Obama leads Hillary 56% to 44%. There are 38 delegates at stake. Hillary won 65 delegates to Obama’s 61 in the direct primary so Obama needs to win more than four delegates than Hillary in the caucus to win the state. He will do that.
This is what I feel might happen...
Mich... Obama (52% to 48%)
Florida..Hillary..(51 % to 49%)...(+/-...1%)
Note: (FL)...Alot of the New York Snow birds won’t be here to vote twice...
If this had been anyone other than the Clintons, the candidate would have dropped out of the race conceding to Obama. She can't make up the difference in pledged delegates no matter what she does in the remaining primaries. Even a compromise on seating the MI and FL delegations will not be enough.
He!! or high water, "shystering" ways, murder, loss of sovereignty, what ever it takes, she WILL be the dimocratic nominee. It's her only want in life. It "ain't" over until it's over.
As I have stated previously, it will be up to the superdelegates who will have the choice of stealing the election from the black guy by overturning the results at the ballot box in favor of the Clintons or supporting the "people's choice." Will the Democrat Party commit political suicide by siding with the Clintons knowing that the consequences will not only affect this election, but also, future ones? IMO they will not sacrifice the party for the Clintons.
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