Posted on 08/19/2008 10:10:46 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk
An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that the Earth will enter a "Little Ice Age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.
Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM, showcased his theories during an international conference he led at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development. Velasco, a specialist in remote sensing systems, said that the recent rupture of the Perito Moreno glacier on the border of Chile and Argentina, unusual for having produced a full austral winter, was not due to global warming. He theorizes that the event was caused during a drought by falling water levels in the river, coupled with colder temperatures.
Dr. Velasco described as "erroneous" predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming. The models and forecasts of the IPCC "are incorrect because they are based solely on mathematical models and do not include, for example, solar activity," said Velasco, who is also a specialist in predictive image processing. "The phenomenon of climate change," he added, "should include both internal and external factors. Internal would include volcanic activity,while external causes include solar activity."
"Curiously, the Sun never has been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming. It clearly has roles in both cooling and warming," he said.
At present, Velasco holds that the world is going through a transition phase of considerably diminished solar activity, "so that in two years or so, there will be the beginnings of a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years,and the immediate consequence of this" he added, "will be drought."
Analyses by the IPCC concluded that the "Little Ice Age",a cold period that lasted since the beginning of the fourteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century. was a regional phenomena or accentuation of local effects. But Velasco disagrees. He says that, "Current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of abnormal heat or cold in this timeframe," and that it must have been caused by other factors.
Highlights and Dates
According to Velasco, effects will be clearly observable within in approximately two years. However, in early July, Velasco Herrera said that satellite data indicate it is possible that this period of global cooling may have even already begun as early as 2005.
He has predicted that cooling would fully arrive within 30 or 40 years.
As I write today, the current solar cycle #23 has been in progress for 147 months, since May’96.
Global temperatures have been shown to be strongly correlated with solar cycle length. A cycle that is 4 months longer can be expected to yield a temperature lower by 0.1C .
The previous five cycles, from 1944 to 1996, had a cycle length of 125mo - shorter (and therefore hotter) than the average cycle of the last 200 years, which was about 133mo.
Given that this cycle has been about 22 months longer than the previous 5 cycles, we should expect that this is putting into place at present, a -0.55C difference from the last couple decades.
See: http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html for the study.
Someone tell Al Gore he has succeeded in ending Global Warming! He can stop working on the problem now.
National Autonomous University of Mexico - is this an unknown hotbed of potential Nobel level work in science?
???
There was once a sci fi novel by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle that was based on the premise that the greenhouse effect was largely local, and that it was holding off another ice age.
The story begins after the socialists take over and bans activities that they consider to be destructive to the environment, or that violate the rights of animals. What happens is the onset of the ice age, and a dramatic, and frightening, reduction in living standards, and individual liberty.
The only rebels are people living in space stations, and an underground resistance of sci fi fans, whose secret password is “fiawol” (fandom is a way of life).
Ice ages caused drought in equatorial regions because so much water was frozen in glaciers.
Hey, don’t forget the prediction that, by now, we would all die of skin cancer because of ozone depletion. Where are those predictors now?
If memory serves the book is called "Fallen Angels" and there is a third author who contributed also. (First name is Michael, forgot the last one)
Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
First name is Michael, forgot the last one)
Flynn
“We’ve heard this again and again. Where is it? Keep your cooling, I want it to stay warm.”
Where is it? First of all, it’s already been cooling at an accelerating rate since 1998, if you look at data other than NOAA data which is gamed. One interesting data set is from the Argo buoys which measure ocean heat content down to 6,000 ft. The global warming folk just can’t understand why the oceans aren’t heating at all, as their models predict. ;-)
The sun is deep in a minimum, there hasn’t been a sunspot this month so far, old or new cycle. This cycle is already long and weak, and looking longer and weaker by the day. Cycle 24 (the next one) is forecast to be even longer and weaker than the current cycle by what’s considered the leading theory of internal solar mechanics. There has also been significant volcanism, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is switched to the cool part of the cycle. SO, I think there’ll be fairly sharp cooling over the next decade at least. I’m not signing up for this guys full agenda at this point.
Regardless, it should be fun watching algore’s head explode. =:-D
(BTW, it won’t be fun watching the famines and so forth. Global warming is mostly a good thing from humanity’s standpoint, this won’t be. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts.)
Tons more information on this topic at: icecap.us
“Does this mean that the carbon credit idiots are going to harm the earth by making it colder?”
Short answer: yes. ;-)
......It should be an interesting winter. .....
hmmm....
i think I have outgrown my down parka
Social Security is going to run out. 2012 is going to bring the end of the world. And now its going to be freakin’ cold.
We post baby boomers cannot catch a break.
Along with the rest of the loony left those predictors will be in Denver next week for the Dem convention.
I hope.
Dirty Big Secret: The Russkis are way into Global Cooling studies, and thus conveniently ignored by our Lefty-GW-Maniacs. IMHO, the Russkis were hoping for GW as a way to get their agricultural production back up to where it was under the Czar. Now they'll have to go get what they need elsewhere.
> “...increased cloud nucleation from increased cosmic radiation.” <
I would think with more cosmic radiation not being deflected due to decreased solar activity, there would be increased clouds, shouldn’t there also be increased moisture?
this scientist seems to think the opposite; that with the cooling trend, there will be a drought. That’s baffling.
Comments?
UNAM Surprise! A great university, academically rigorous in many subject areas, with a politically active student life.
Last Updated: Thursday, 11 August 2005, Siberia's rapid thaw causes alarm
"The whole western Siberian sub-Arctic region has started to thaw The world's largest frozen peat bog is melting, which could speed the rate of global warming, New Scientist reports. The huge expanse of western Siberia is thawing for the first time since its formation, 11,000 years ago."
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