Posted on 09/15/2008 12:52:45 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
46% McCain (R)
50% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided
Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground. One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.
In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
When I get polled (it only hurts a bit) I tell them I’m voting for someone that I’m not voting for. It warms my heart to get Obama to waste money in VA because he thinks he’s doing better than he is. And then when they lose I love it even more.
17% of Republicans jumped over to vote Democrat??????? WTF. These polls are going to make me crazy. Wish we were voting tomorrow.
Pure sophistry.
Does anyone else think these kinds of extreme swings reflect more on the SUSA methodology than actual voter opinion?
It’s not racism that is behind the Bradley Effect, it is political correctness.
A candidate like 0bama, with his experience, qualifications, and liberal positions would be trailing McCain by 10+ points if he were white. The only reason why the polls don’t reflect that is because lots of white people would rather be seen as naive than be seen as not open minded. And then if they’re asked by a black pollster, then they definitely feel too uncomfortable to admit they’re not voting for the black guy.
By McCain putting Palin on the ticket, more people feel they can admit to voting for the ticket.
Party ID
33 - GOP (80-17 McCain)
37 - Dem (87-17 Dem)
23 - Indy (48-44 GOP)
It’s not racism that is behind the Bradley Effect, it is political correctness.
A candidate like 0bama, with his experience, qualifications, and liberal positions would be trailing McCain by 10+ points if he were white. The only reason why the polls don’t reflect that is because lots of white people would rather be seen as naive than be seen as not open minded. And then if they’re asked by a black pollster, then they definitely feel too uncomfortable to admit they’re not voting for the black guy.
By McCain putting Palin on the ticket, more people feel they can admit to voting for the ticket.
This poll appears to skewed toward the DC suburbs.
BS Cough Cough
On the 538 website, posters are still claiming that Obama will sweep Fla, Ga, NC and Va on the way to a landslide victory....Meanwhile, Obama is opening more and more offices in Kerry Blue States like Mi, Pa, Wis and Min where polls are nearly tied....Even DEEP DEEP blue NY is only 5% for Obama.
My guess is that the next SUSA poll of VA shows McCain back on top, but it will be interesting to see if other polls replicate these results in the Old Dominion.
LOL! The McCain Palin ticket is just getting revved up! The media has spend 2 weeks trying to destroy Palin in front of an America with a two day attention span for BS arguments the media is throwing out about Palin.
PS. I know you don’t believe this, but probably 80% of America can identify with her with the BS this slug of an ex brother in law put the Palin family through.
Yes, Americans do agree with getting even, when the guy they want to get even with has it coming. You don’t taser a 10 year old stepson and not have the boy’s maternal family come after you in the America I know........
Obama is doomed.
It is and will be a landslide for McCain
Check out The right-wing liberal.
Add to that the union member who suspects the poll caller to possibly be a canvasser from his union.
Nice try liberal. This last week was FAVORABLE to McCain?
Where and when? For two solid weeks the media has been trying to destroy sarah palin for the democratic party.
Again, nice try closet liberal.
I think this will be a tough election for McCain to win. When I look over the electoral map at Real Clear Politics there just isn’t much left to pick up and certainly nothing he can lose. You add in the rabid media and it is going to be a real tough battle.
Lord help us if Obama wins. I have doubled my prayers at night, but mostly to ask for forgiveness for the terrible names I call the media all day.
Say what?
Swings like that just do not happen naturally in the absence of monumental events. It is almost certainly the result of methodological variance. That does not mean that one poll is more accurate than the other, just that there is an incongruity between the results well outside the norms of behavior and experience.
Great explanation of the Bradley Effect! Thank you.
Racism is not the same as political correctness. It’s really almost the opposite.
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