Posted on 09/16/2008 1:30:41 PM PDT by Dawnsblood
The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and fivethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.
Some caution is in order: We're talking about only one or two polls in some states but as many as eight in ultracritical Ohio. I haven't included the Zogby Internet polls in my analysis. I've rounded off the averages in each state to full percentages (and rounded 0.5s downwards for both candidates), and I'm reporting the difference between the McCain percentage and Obama percentage. Here's my analysis:
The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating. Here's another possible rule. When voters see that tax increases aren't producing a better economy, they don't move toward a Democratic nominee who is proposing higher taxes, even though he says they'll hit only the rich. In Michigan, the Democrats (with a few turncoat Republicans) raised taxes in 2007; in Ohio, the Republicans (with some Democratic support) raised taxes before 2006. Those tax increases haven't helped those states' economies, not so as you'd notice, though they've helped members of public employees unions.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
The McCain campaign is starting to lose it... the narrative is turning against them... they need to shake things up...
Did you read teh article??? The point it was making was just the opposite of what you expressed.
>> The McCain campaign is starting to lose it...
Seriously? THAT’S the conclusion you drew from reading the article?
...or is that just the anti-McCain boilerplate that you crap into every thread like a grackle craps on a freshly washed car?
Obama’s HQ had to put back the champagne and confetti today as Dow Jones was up over 140.
The popular culture of video games, reality TV and the 24 hour miniseries news cycle has resulted in a 15 minute attention span for most Americans.
Evidently “bahblahbah” is what bahblahbah really does hear (or in this case, read).
It is just about time to let Sarah go out into the media. There is a smart way to do it. Not all at once.
but we need to use her more against Obama. I think that is the plan.
You’re so five minutes ago.
You really need to read the article before you start making your profound announcements.
Your credibility has taken a serious blow....keep this up and you'll destroy it completely.
Geez! The histrionics!
I think it just says that Mac needs to start pounding Obama to let the voters know that higer taxes on investors means less investment an less job creation. He also needs to challenge obama on the specificsof his tax cut promises for the middle class. All I ever hear is that those making over 250k will get socked and those under 100k will get a cut. Mac needs to hit him on specifics of those in between 100 and 250k. They are the ones that will get the change.
I think it just says that Mac needs to start pounding Obama to let the voters know that higer taxes on investors means less investment an less job creation. He also needs to challenge obama on the specifics of his tax cut promises for the middle class. All I ever hear is that those making over 250k will get socked and those under 100k will get a cut. Mac needs to hit him on specifics of those in between 100 and 250k. They are the ones that will get the change.
I think it just says that Mac needs to start pounding Obama to let the voters know that higer taxes on investors means less investment an less job creation. He also needs to challenge obama on the specifics of his tax cut promises for the middle class. All I ever hear is that those making over 250k will get socked and those under 100k will get a cut. Mac needs to hit him on specifics of those in between 100 and 250k. They are the ones that will get the change or the real screwing. increased payroll taxes, SS taxes, taxe on employer provided health benefits etc!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Excellent article. And for some context, how many people imagined the GOP would be in this position 3 or 4 months ago? It’s been a remarkable few months.
Not to mention 12 years of left-wing mush feed to students in public schools. These kids have been cheated of an education.
Michael Barone knows his stuff. I recall when everyone was running around declaring Kerry the next president, and he (Barone) was able to quickly call “BS!” just based on scattered election returns.
And what flavor Kool-Aid would that be?
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