Poll: GOP brand making comeback (New PEW poll, 46-46 LV)

Politico ^

[Chet 99]

New polling suggests that the Republican Party is beginning to regain some of its luster and, perhaps as important, is experiencing a surge in excitement among its political base.

A new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press reports that independent voters have an equally favorable opinion of both parties, 50 to 49 percent, a one-point edge for the GOP. That compares to an 18-point Democratic advantage as recently as August, a wide gap that had generally held for more than a year.

And half of registered voters overall now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, the highest GOP ranking in three years. Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

The GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate have also generated considerable enthusiasm among the party rank-and-file. Pew found that three in four Republicans express satisfaction with their presidential choice. In June, only half said the same.

[tom h]

"They has seen the abyss, stepped back and said: Hell The Republicans look better all the time."

i wish I could agree with you but I don't.

I think this poll just shows how fickle voters are.

Most of us aren't. I've been a solid, guaranteed Republican for the past 25 years.

But the generic ballot affiliation has turned ONLY because of Sarah Palin. One single decision by a Presidential nominee.

No people are not waking up and smelling the coffee. They are spending less time thinking about their political affiliation than the options they purchased on their new car.

That said, I hope they all vote Republican in November.

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.

This poll (very long) shows a lot of good movement in our direction. My big caveat is that it was completed September 14, before the economic escalation. Rasmussen has us tied today which is part of a slow downward trend these past few days, but I think we reseized some momentum today with Biden's tax gaffe and some good ads and attacks.

[Mikey_1962]

That said, I hope they all vote Republican in November.

I do too, but I wish they offered "none of the above" on every choice, and if that were more than 50% we would be forced to have a redo with new candidates.

[1035rep]

The GOP is experiencing a surge in excitement, while the DNC wallows in a surge in excrement.

Thanks for the ping!

[Darkwolf377]

and now McCain and Palin are both stupid

You forgot that Donna "Butch" Brasile, Susan Sarandon and that idiot in Congress (I know, which one?) all had the spontaneous (snort) idea to remind us that 'Jesus was a community organizer, and Judas was a governor,' so Palin is evil, too. Though you never can tell with the dems' view of Christianity.

[ConservativeDude]

The bottom line is that unless one of the Bush states of Iowa, NM or CO come over to us, OR one of the Kerry states such as MI or PA, then we are going to lose.

Of course, it is also true from the Obama perspective that to win, they must main their current (slim) leads in Bush states Iowa, NM and CO...AND successfully hold onto MI, PA...as well as WI and MN.

Neither side at this stage can feel really great.

That said, when it is extremely close in a lot of states, that is when a two-point national advantage starts to mean something. That is where GWB was in 2004, and that is where Obama is today.

All in all, I think thinks don’t look great for McCain NOW. But the debates could change all that.

[Norman Bates]

While there is merit to what you say, I think we are well positioned for a win. A 2-point spread 47 days out means nothing. Obama is going to find it very difficult to win Pennsylvania, for starters. He was soundly crushed in the dem primary, demonstrating severe weakness througout the state, and his “bitter” remarks are going to haunt him.

[ConservativeDude]

Thanks for the reply and I sure hope those remarks go remembered in PA come election day. Hopefully the McCain camp will help voters remember them well...

As for when a 2 point spread means something, though, I’m not so sure. Yes, it could switch at any moment. But did not GWB enjoy about a 1 or 2 point spread over Kerry from post-conventions through election day?

Certainly Carter enjoyed a lead over Reagan in 80 until near the end. So that certainly plays to your point.

I freely admit that my mood follows the polls. But unlike most other freepers I see that historically the polls are pretty doggone accurate.

[impeachedrapist]

Just a reminder ping. Good for when people claim that the Democrats will turn out in much stronger fashion than the Pubbies in three weeks.

[kesg]

Not so new. The article is dated Sept. 18.

[impeachedrapist]

I know. It was just a reminder ping.

[NYC Republican]

Is this the same poll that has ZeroH up by 14?

[NYC Republican]

That answers my quesion (post 32)... We CAN’T choose to believe this, and also discount the other poll that came out today, showing ZeroH up by 14.

[Chet 99]

The one and only. Pretty interesting how they delivered that bomb just as other polls tightened the RCP average considerably.

Pew is funded by the Annenberg Foundation by the by.

[Chet 99]

Jiminy Crickets, Democracy Corps (D) just came out with a poll today with O up by only 4, down 6 from the 10 point lead they spotted him a week ago.

I know polls are all over the place, but you’d think they’d at least be consistent in marking trends!

[kesg]

Here’s the substance of a FR mail that I just sent around to some people about the new Pew poll:

I had to wade through about 10-12 pages of stuff, but they did list the Party ID at the end. It is by registered voters, but they assume that a very high percentage of registered voters are also likely voters (92%! — that should be a huge clue about just how crappy this poll is).

Here is the breakdown:

R 32.4% (89-7 for McCain)
D 38.3% (91-5 for Obama)
I 29.3% (51-33 for Obama — this is the number that looks especially nuts to me)

Quick observations: they are skewing this poll by undersampling Republicans by 3-5 points and also assuming an Independent electorate that is 20% more Democratic than the last two Presidential elections. This is very similar to what CBS did in their last poll.

I just checked my chart and confirmed that from 1972 to 2006, the Dems were as high as +8 once with Independents: in 1996. Since then, they were +2 Bush in 2000 and +1 Kerry in 2004.

Two more important details. First, it assumes that turnout will be a whopping 80 percent of voting age population (2,382 LVs in a sample of 3,016 adults). Again, we haven’t even hit the 60% level (Gallup’s current projection) in any election since 1968.

Second, and equally ridiculous, it assumes that 92 percent of registered voters will actually vote. Again, in 2004 — the highest turnout election since 1968 — only 70% of registered voters actually voted. Usually this number is in the mid to high 60s.

In sum, the poll is complete crap. I would totally dismiss it. And one other thing that is really starting to piss me off: Obama media and pundit pinheads using these fraudulent polls to skew Sarah Palin, who is the single best thing that the Repbulicans have going right now. I shudder to think where McCain would be today without her.

[Non-Sequitur]

That would be the same Pew Research who just came out with a poll showing Obama up by 14 points? Link

[NYC Republican]

Thanks for that research. Very helpful

[kesg]

Thanks. If you want me to add you to my informal poll wonk ping list, let me know. Atlhough I am starting to get more than a little weary of debunking one faux poll after another. :)

[NYC Republican]

Sure. Thanks