Posted on 09/22/2008 9:37:01 AM PDT by tatown
I live in McLean. What many FReepers fail to understand is that NoVA is becoming a Northeastern state in terms of voting patterns and demographics. It is no longer a quaint, conservative southern state.
Denial just ain’t a river in Egypt. Except for Virginia Beach, Obama is going to take all of the major cities in the state. The black turnout will set records. And with Mark Warner on the ticket and Tim Kaine running things, this is going to be a very close race, believe it or not.
Obama is still the dog in VA. Here’s three recent polls that favor McCain:
CNU Virginia Poll 09/10 - 09/14 500 RV 48 39 McCain +9
National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 48 41 McCain +7
InAdv/PollPosition 09/17 - 09/17 502 LV 48 46 McCain +2
How do they know how to weight the party affiliations?
Virginia does not have party registration in its voter registration process. In other words, citizens do not designate a political party affiliation when registering to vote in Virginia.
Well, of course it’s denial. I dare to disagree with the GOP expert!
i am not completely without hope though. there are not the plethora of Obama yard signs that i might expect. our neighborhood has only ONE, and that inveterate lib always has dem signage and attempts to hand out dem propaganda with his halloween candy each year. my kids tear it up and leave it in his driveway ; ) Falls Church has some, not as many in previous years. Del Ray has some also, but i do see some McCain signs as well. my daughter is in private middle school in alexandria. 3 out of 10 in her class said they were voting for McCain, the other 7 for obama. i don’t have a good read on my son’s HS class yet, but he is at Gonzaga in DC and so that is a multistate operation there anyway.
And I've been hearing experts such as yourself make this argument for years now. So if the demographics have been shifting so dramatically, why did Bush increase his margin in Virginia? WHY?!?!?
I attended a GOP district meeting last Thursday. Jim Gilmore addressed our group. The message from the GOP was that VA was very much in play and that the race was very close and could go either way. They felt if we could get enough turnout and convince independents and Dem moderates to go our way, we could win. They also said that Obama had fielded a huge ground effort and was pouring in huge amounts of money. Unfortunately, the RNC can’t help us in the same way since most of the money is going to McCain and very little to Rep candidates down ballot.
Where in VA do you live?
Was the poll only from northern Virginia?
The polling sample was not limited to registered voters or better yet, registered voters who are likely to vote.
Asks the McLean resident (which is oh-so representative of the state as a whole). I'm sorry. Did you answer my question?
Representative samples of the whole state of Virginia.
I live in fairfax - Greenbriar section. I went to Giant last night (6pmish). Not a single Obama bumperster in site.
I actually two McCain-Palin stickers. The reason Webb won in 2006 was that he caried Loudon. I doubt Obama willwin Loudon. I think McCain will get the evangelicals and the military vote and the pumas.
“Did the number of blacks double in VA or something.”
Who knows but the dead are signing up in record numbers though thanks to the DNC branch—ACORN.
Yeah, I was off in 2006 because I didn't believe the polls. Learned my lesson. But it appears you haven't learned yours.
And no, I'm don't have a "vested interest" in any poll or polling industry. My university doesn't do polls.
I think DC ought to annex Arlington and Fairfax Counties, and let Virginia remain Virginia, not Maryland/DC Southern Branch.
And I've been hearing experts such as yourself make this argument for years now. So if the demographics have been shifting so dramatically, why did Bush increase his margin in Virginia? WHY?!?!?
Based on Census Bureau statistics, the demographics of VA have changed significantly. In 1990 the population of VA was 6,187,358, which included 4,791,739 whites; 1,162,994 blacks; and 159,053 Asians or Pacific Islanders. Hispanics of either race numbered 160,288.
In 2006 the population of VA was 7,642,884 which included 5,413,295 whites; 1,496,076 blacks; and 365,515 Asians or Pacific Islanders. Hispanics of either race numbered 470,871. The growing minority population, a normal Dem constituency, has a political impact. There has been an increase of approximately 840,000 in the minority population out of the total population increase of 1.4 million.
The Bush margin of victory in 2004 [8.2%] did not represent a statistically significant difference from the margin he won by in 2000 [8.04%]. And McCain is not Bush and Obama is not Kerry. It is a whole different dynamic.
In the VA Dem primaries 1 million voted for the Dem candidates compared to the 1,454,742 that voted for Kerry in the 2004 general elections in VA. Elections are about turnout. Although VA does not have registration by party and has open primaries, this is a huge turnout for the Dems in a primary. In 2000, Gore received 1,217,290 votes in the general election in VA. If the Dems can turnout the vote for the general election like they did the primary, they are going to be very tough to beat.
SUSA does not adjust for voter affiliation. Nothing wrong with that per se. it does mean their polls swing more widely than others, however.
McCain had a very rough week last week. It initially looked like the bad economic news might knock him out permanently. He regained his footing, however, and ended the week pretty strong.
I still feel good about our chances in Virginia, but the race is no doubt extremely close their right now.
I get the sneaking suspicion that you don’t live in VA. What makes you such an “expert” on the state? Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night?
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