Posted on 09/22/2008 9:37:01 AM PDT by tatown
If the demographics have shifted so drastically from 1990 to now, we should see it reflected in Virginia's voting patterns. We haven't, not when comparing Presidential elections. And for those folks who want to bring up the last two governor's races and the most recent Senate race, my response is "So?" Something like 6 of VA's last 9 governors have been Dems. The Senate seats have been mostly split during my adult lifetime (and I'm graying in the temples). Only recently (2003?) did the Pubbies capture the House of Delegates, IIRC, for the first time in eons (rhetorically speaking). VA is not a "GOP" state. But it is a GOP state for Presidential elections.
I truly don't care about the primary numbers. That's pure speculation. The Dems had a contested race, the GOP didn't, and any voter can cross over and vote in the other primary. Could it be indicative of trouble? Of course. And it could be nothing more than bored Pubbies and Operation Chaos.
Of all your arguments, only one concerns me. And it concerns me in many states, not just Virginia. That's Obama's ground game. If it's as good as advertised, it could be a long election night.
The rest of the arguments I heard in 2000 and 2004. I expect similar results in 2008 - although a few points closer, and I don't really expect the Obamessiah to pull out of the state prior to the election like Kerry and Gore (I think) did.
You're the GOP expert, remember? As for your suspicion, so what if you're correct? I definitely don't live in Iowa or Wisconsin, but I know the difference between corn and cows.
If it makes you feel any better (not that I really care), I lived in three different Virginia municipalities for over three total decades. But to me that's irrelevant. It's really all about numbers - past, present and trying to extrapolate those into a future election.
..."but that in the end I expect McCain/Palin to win by 5-6 points."
I'll go out there with you and say that McCain/Palin will take the Commonwealth of Virginia in the 7.0%-10.5% range. My high range variance is due to the 'Palin' factor and the potential number of women who will add support to the McCain/Palin ticket.
Fairfax County (my residence since mid 70s) has become more Democrat, however it used to be that rural areas of Virginia were the more Democrat in that past. That has now flipped, still some people forget the the Commonwealth is conservative above all.
McCain/Palin will win in Virginia.
dvwjr
fairfax is a big county and there are lots of different pockets. I just drove through falls church on the way home and there are more obama signs on Hillwood Ave. than the last time i went through there. but that has always been the peoples republic of earthwatchers down there in Falls Church. i am very nervous about VA. Maybe it will go for McCain but i will be surprised. I am a hockey mom but i have missed my son’s first two games, now that he has his drivers license. i will need to take the pulse of the hockey moms on his NoVA team!
“It would appear that he is spending tons of money on TV adds in Northern Virginia.”
This could help.
BIDEN SAYS NO TO COAL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rXyTRT-NZg
I would play that sound byte over and over and over again.
And to top it off, WE ARE GOING TO CLEAN UP CHINA'S COAL PLANTS!?!?
Now what the HELL is THAT going to cost!
Biden: "No clean burning coal power plants in America!"
Has anybody ever say anything about the dirty little secret behind wind and solar power?
You need to have an equivalent wattage alternative gas or coal or nuclear power plant running off line in the backround, in order to make up for any potential reduction in electric production from these "alternative" power plants. If you don't, then when the power of these "alternative" power plants dropps then your lights go out. Period.
Rasmussen and ABC are saying about the same thing.
Can this get to the McCain people? Or fellow FReepers with email lists.
Isn’t SurveyUSA usually right at election day, but well off the mark over a month earlier.
Don’t know about that. I do know that SUSA was dead accurate in predicting a McCain primary win in the states, even when other polls were showing Romney or others up.
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