Electoral Votes: Obama/Biden 234, McCain/Palin 163 (Vanity)

10-28-08 | Teacher317

[Teacher317]

Yahoo's current top story features a map that I think is a fair starting point for any electoral analysis. Barring anything huge in the final week, the electoral votes that are basically already decided look like this: Obama 234, McCain 163, Undecided 141.

Obama thus needs to add only 36 EV's. The 11 unclaimed states are:

FL 27
PA 21
OH 20
NC 15
VA 13
IN 11
MO 11
CO 9
NM 5
NV 5
NH 4

If Obama takes only CO and FL (36 total EV), it's over. If he fails in six of the biggest seven prizes here, he still wins (with NH, NV, NM, CO, and VA, totalling exactly 36)... and to me, those 5 seem like they could easily go for Obama.

McCain seems likely for IN and NC, but the MSM likes keeping them "in play" this year, I guess.

At any rate, McCain is up against it. Palin's boost is pretty much over (being well-defended by the MSM). Obama has millions of dollars and lawyers ready to roll at any time. Vote fraud has been given the Ohio stamp of approval. It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20.

[Teacher317]

Comments and arguments?

[BGHater]

Yahoo's Graphic

[Genoa]

McCain might lose NM but I think he takes the rest of the availables you mentioned.

[Perdogg]

ping

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Who says all those other States already belong to BO?

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

PA is huge. I also have a gut feeling that there will be surprise somewhere else. maybe Iowa. Maybe Wisc ?

[edpc]

IMHO I only believe Obama has a realistic shot at NM and CO in that list. I am confident McCain can carry the others, with PA being the one “suprise” (for the MSM, that is).

[library user]

Obama can’t be sworn in because he was born in Kenya.

[cdga5for4]

I think their could be surprises in both directions. I think it has a chance to be really weird.

[pburgh01]

Pretty much the same pablum we have been seeing and the foundation of the argument the MSM has been using to say McCain is a longshot. Only problem is that all respect for the polls only about 3 of those states are really up for grabs.

[basil]

I simply don't share your pessimism. I continue to predict that McCain will win in a landslide, and that we will take back both houses of congress.

So there! LOL!

[ZULU]

I guess the electoral college analysis is dependent upon accuracy of the polls.

New Mexico will probably go to Obama as well as Colorado.

The Repubs SHOULD take the other states. But with the economy and Bush’s miserable showing in popularity polls, who knows.

A lot depends on how accurate those polls really are, and I’m not convinced they are not biased.

Time will tell, but I’ll still keep hoping and praying and working for McCain/Palin.

[goldstategop]

I think that's way way way off. If the election is a done deal, then why are the polls continuing to tighten? It should be the opposite and everything points to a trend to McCain though the polls won't pick it up til after the election. Yahoo's model is complete rotgut garbage and rests on the assumption that Obama has this huge vote edge that is very difficult for McCain to overcome. Well if its there, why is Obama well within the MOE with a week to go to the election?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

Looks like the Bush Kerry map from 2004. It assumes Obama will pick up a couple of Red States. IND, OH, VA, NC, FL are going to stay Red. McCain flips NH for NM. The race comes down to PA and CO.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Nachum]

The sound of shoes dropping off the other foot are occuring daily for the Obama campaign. McCain is still very much in contention.

Did anyone see the youtube vid of Biden today? Now the tax cut us for anyone under $150,000! The tape of Obama's Marxism happened yesterday. They are blowing it a different way every day. It's not over yet...

[HammerOfTheDogs]

FL 27 McCain, far easier than expected

PA 21 McCain. I just don't believe religious gunowners will vote for a 3rd World marxist.

OH 20 McCain. Even mainstream polls have him up here. McCain in a romp

NC 15 McCain. No way NC goes Communist.

VA 13 McCain. Ditto

IN 11 McCain, in a close vote.

MO 11 Tossup. Will say for B. Hussein just for kicks.

CO 9 John Elway sez this is for McCain

NM 5 B. Hussein. Surprised it went to Bush in 2004.

NV 5 Tossup. Think it might go B. Hussein.

NH 4 B. Hussein

this makes for McCain 279, B. Hussein Obama 259.

[Godsgirl]

EXACTLY what I was just thinking.

[BGHater]

I’m listening to left radio right now, Ed Schultz, and he and the dems are worried about early voting.

The Youths aren’t showing up in the numbers they want. Sound worried.

[chimera]

We’re not going to get NM. We need to run the table on the others. If we lose CO or VA and especially FL or OH, we’re done.

[Godsgirl]

I’m praying for favor from on high about this. May the Good Lord persuade the hearts of these supreme court justices to rule in our favor. May God bless and save our great nation.