Nevada Early Vote Stats Reveal Obama Underperforms Party ID

The Cocktoasten Times ^ | 11/03/2008 | John L Cocktoasten

[johncocktoasten]

First a few facts about Nevada Voter Registration and the Electorate:

In 2004, Republicans had a registered voter advantage of 4500 voters in Nevada over Democrats. The raw numbers, 429808 Dems 434239 Reps, out of a total of 107101 registered, active voters.

At the close of registrations, Democrats have a 100,500 registered voter advantage in Nevada. Raw numbers 531223 Dems 430432 Reps out of a total of 1207423 Registered Active Voters.

With early voting finished, 561,625 Nevadans cast early ballots, 46.51% of the registered active voter pool. Most of the voters in Nevada are concentrated in Washoe and Clark Counties, home to Reno and Las Vegas respectively. Jim Gerharty at NRO has been communicating with Steve Nathan, who is a pollster in Nevada. Nathan has completed a canvass of 16,749 early voters in Nevada which we will be referencing in a minute.

First of all, voter registration ID in the state breaks down as follows:

Democrats 44%

Republicans 35.6%

Independents 15.2%

Third Party 5.2%

On a county by county basis, if the early votes are weighted by the voter registration of the county, the early vote party ID weighting should be:

Democrats 44.2%

Republicans 36.6%

Independents 16.2%

Third Party 2.87% Per Nathan's exit poll (see below)

In the exit poll of 16,749 early voters, Nathan found his exit polling results breaking down as follows:

Obama- 51.63%

McCain- 45.51%

Third Party- 2.87%

McCain down 6.1% in early voting, time to jump off the building right? Wrong. Here the actual reports of the Voter ID turnout in Clark and Washoe counties in early voting:

Clark County

Democrats 51.9% Republicans 30.6% Independents 17.4%

Washoe County

Democrats 47.1% Republicans 35.3% Independents 17.5%

These two counties represent 87.85% of the early votes cast. They represent 86.65% of the registered voters in the state.

If we add in the remaining counties proportionally by their voter registration percentages, the statewide voter ID for early voting is as follows:

Democrat 48.65% Republican 33.6% Independent 16.96% (Dems +12.05%)

Actual Exit Poll Results so Far

Obama 51.63% McCain 45.51% Others 2.87% (Dem +6.2%)

I would note that there are a little over 44000 absentee ballots that have been received back in Clark County with Republicans holding a 3500 ballot edge over Dems. Overall, estimates are a total of 88000 absentees statewide.

Based on the party ID weight of the Early Vote, the voter pool that can vote on election day is as follows:

557798 total voters

219570 Dems (39.36%) 194746 Reps (34.9%) 106867 Ind (19.15%)

Awarding absentees by the same ratio as the candidates perform relative to their party weight in the early vote exit polls, the 88000 absentees vote count comes down this way:

McCain 53248

Obama 34752

Aggregate vote estimates for each candidate for early and absentee voting:

Obama 289966 early votes + 34752 absentee = 324718 (49.98%)

McCain 255595 early votes + 53248 absentee = 308843 (47.53%)

Assuming a statewide turnout of 82% for Nevada, which is not unusual (2004 turnout was 77.45%) the number of votes tomorrow will be 340407 with a much lower party ID edge for Dems.

McCain is only behind by 15875.

He needs to win the expected vote tomorrow as follows:

McCain- 178266 52.3%

Obama- 162266 47.7%

That is absolutely do-able. Republicans and Independents just need to show up and VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!

[1035rep]

Winner take all state. Looks better for McCain than Obama.

[LS]

Since the indies are almost as big as the Republicans, a sizable break there (i.e., 55-45) will make it a nice cushion. If they split, though, McCain will have to win more Dem votes.

[no dems]

According to Dick Morris, the Indies are breaking for McCain.

[LS]

I heard Dick say that. I’m counting on him to be right.

[FrustratedGOPmember]

ANNOY the DBM, ELECT McCain/Palin!!

[rdl6989]

bump