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IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Final Estimate. Obama: 51.5%, McCain 44.3%, Other 4.2%
Investors Business Daily ^ | 2008-11-03 | IBD/TIPP

Posted on 11/04/2008 4:20:05 AM PST by justlurking

With just hours to go before the polls open Tuesday, the latest and final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a 7.2-point lead over Sen. John McCain (51.5% Obama vs. 44.3% McCain). All other candidates garner a combined 4.2%. This tally represents IBD/TIPP’s final estimate after allocating undecided voters.

(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls
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To: justlurking; All

Looks like TIPP will lose its vaunted status as “the world’s most by-George you-betcha accurate polling house”.


81 posted on 11/04/2008 5:27:06 AM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Nihil utile nisi quod honestum - Marcus Tullius Cicero)
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To: johncocktoasten; LS; kesg; impeachedrapist

this is total crap. How can you just assign undecideds?


82 posted on 11/04/2008 5:27:17 AM PST by Perdogg (John McCain for President)
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To: pissant
We can at least have an expectation of a new and more conservative GOP. The RINO drift surely can be blamed for part of the GOP’s problems.
83 posted on 11/04/2008 5:27:42 AM PST by MBB1984
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To: jennyjenny; All
I just don’t see undecideds breaking for Obama that way.

I don't either, especially as the early voting exit poll data from FL and NV suggests exactly the opposite - a heavy independent/undecided break for McCain.

84 posted on 11/04/2008 5:28:13 AM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Nihil utile nisi quod honestum - Marcus Tullius Cicero)
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To: justlurking
Sorry, Obama is not going to win the south. Those numbers don't compute. Note the others and none on religion goes to the scum O-scum-a. Jews vote for A-hab the A-rab. None investors for O-scum-a.
85 posted on 11/04/2008 5:28:21 AM PST by RetiredArmy (God speaks & Americans ignore. So, maybe now He is going too act . . . you will notice, believe me.)
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To: WalterSkinner
1) "Assigns" Is. that's the difference there.

2) McCain wins Catholics AND Protestants but loses?

Check out today's Muehlenberg PA poll (Obama +4, about a 4 MOE): question, "Do you know anyone who wouldn't vote for Obama because he is black?"

14% There's your "Bradley Effect."

86 posted on 11/04/2008 5:29:07 AM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: a real Sheila

You may be right, but I hop II Chronicles and Joel 2 has resounded enough in enough peoples head’s to get us thinking and doing the things God wants us to do. We may have been too blessed. You can see a pattern of God blessing a nation, those people forgetting about him, then he turns a deaf ear. A very scary scenario indeed. Lord, forgive and save us.

2 Chronicles 7:14 (New International Version)
New International Version (NIV)

14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then will I hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and will heal their land.


87 posted on 11/04/2008 5:31:02 AM PST by ConstantConservative (Keep pushing Freepers & PUMA's, we're making a difference!!)
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To: LS
..a poll, a poll, my kingdom for an honest poll...
88 posted on 11/04/2008 5:35:20 AM PST by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Sooth2222

“skeptical about Barr and Nader winning 4.1%. Try about 0.4% each.”

I seriously doubt they were giving 4.1% to Nader/Barr. The “other” is a combination of 3rd party voters and also people who are simply not going to make a choice either way and thus won’t show up to vote.


89 posted on 11/04/2008 5:37:01 AM PST by floridagopvoter
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To: fortheDeclaration

“Exactly correct.
This was about appearances, not reality.
Hoping to depress our base, but it didn’t work and we will win this.”

The Investors Business Daily has a heavy tilt to the right. They have no reason to be part of a conspiracy to depress the base.


90 posted on 11/04/2008 5:41:20 AM PST by floridagopvoter
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To: justlurking

Well, it looks like TIPP went with the crowd on this one. Better to go down with everyone else than stand out as an outlier. That way, they can claim that some unforeseen event (i.e. higher than expected GOP turnout) threw off all of the polls.


91 posted on 11/04/2008 5:41:59 AM PST by bailmeout ("During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act" - G Orwell)
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To: justlurking

WTH, they have the ‘inevitable’ candidate peak out at 47.5% and then assume the undecideds break hard for that guy after refusing to commit to him for this long? Wow, they really screwed this up bad. Assume the undecideds break according to normal voting patterns. We can assume there is zero or near zero undecided blacks. Therefore, the breakdown should be even or slightly to McCain.


92 posted on 11/04/2008 5:42:14 AM PST by ilgipper (Does Obama have even ONE friend who is PRO America?)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I wouldn’t mind Duncan Hunter at all. Why are you so confident?

I know the fence he built in San Diego cut crime by something like 90%, but it’s too bad illegal immigration isn’t a hot item anymore.


93 posted on 11/04/2008 5:42:24 AM PST by ConstantConservative (Keep pushing Freepers & PUMA's, we're making a difference!!)
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To: justlurking

They’re nuts. No way do to undecideds break 2:1 for Obama — at best (for Obama) they break 2:1 for McCain.


94 posted on 11/04/2008 5:42:47 AM PST by kevkrom (Final Predicition: McCain/Palin 50, Obama/Biden 47; McCain/Palin 300+ EV)
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To: floridagopvoter
The Investors Business Daily has a heavy tilt to the right. They have no reason to be part of a conspiracy to depress the base.

And where are their poll numbers and internals?

95 posted on 11/04/2008 5:43:02 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (AMERICANS-PREPARE FOR GLORY!)
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To: ConstantConservative
I wouldn’t mind Duncan Hunter at all. Why are you so confident? I know the fence he built in San Diego cut crime by something like 90%, but it’s too bad illegal immigration isn’t a hot item anymore.

Hunter is a good man, but he would not have done well in the run for the Presidency.

Now is not the time to bring up Hunter, now is the time to concentrate on getting McCain elected.

96 posted on 11/04/2008 5:45:44 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (AMERICANS-PREPARE FOR GLORY!)
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To: sunmars

My husband - Jewish - isn’t voting Obama. Neither is his daughter who is a stauch democrat. Neither is his son in law who is also a stauch democrat. What does that tell you?


97 posted on 11/04/2008 5:50:18 AM PST by Hero
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To: scooby321

>>We know 0 is going win the popular vote by 2 to 3% of the vote. But will lose to Mac in Electoral College.<<

The only time anyone has ever been elected POTUS when losing the popular vote by 1% or more was in 1876. Tilden (D) won the votes in Louisiana, Florida, but this was during Reconstruction, and Hayes’s (R) people in the state governments awarded those electoral votes to Hayes, and Hayes eventually was declared the winner.

The other times the popular vote loser won the electoral vote (1888 and 2000) the popular vote margin was less than 1%.


98 posted on 11/04/2008 5:51:44 AM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: justlurking

Polls, schmolls! Remember 1980. VOTE!!


99 posted on 11/04/2008 5:52:25 AM PST by Genoa
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To: oblomov

lol


100 posted on 11/04/2008 5:52:30 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Nemo me impune lacessit.)
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