Posted on 03/13/2009 9:25:05 AM PDT by Kaslin
First, just a word before the following is dismissed by Democratic readers as partisan, or as being from someone who doesn't know what he is talking about. My polling firm, InsiderAdvantage, is non-partisan. It polled the 2008 presidential race for the red-hot political site Politico, and was in a recent speech at Fordham University named by a guru who even D.C. liberals praise as one of the three most accurate national pollsters for the presidential contest.
This column isn't about partisanship. It's about strategy.
I've only met Rush Limbaugh once. It was back when I was politically active, running Newt Gingrich's campaign. One time in particular I had occasion to sit and casually chat with Limbaugh.
It was enlightening. He was the complete opposite of his persona. He was soft-spoken, extraordinarily polite and clearly not taking himself too seriously. My friends who know him well tell me he is still that way today.
Now for a second big personality, Democratic strategist James Carville. He was revealed just this week by media to have reportedly once said he hoped President Bush would fail -- just as Rush Limbaugh has recently been assailed for hoping the same about President Obama.
To be fair, Carville is much like Limbaugh. Sorry, conservatives, but while James can be nasty and shrill on TV -- and, as I write in my book, a tough political opponent -- he also is in private very polite and unassuming, not to mention kind and funny, too.
I would never make James Carville my target if I were trying to tear down the Democratic Party. Likewise, I would be wary of targeting Rush Limbaugh if I were an Obama strategist.
I can understand why some might suggest otherwise. A recent McClatchy newspaper poll reports that Limbaugh has only a 30 percent approval rating, and a 46 percent disapproval rating.
But that poll needs to be placed into perspective. It's likely that most of the 46 percent who say they view Limbaugh unfavorably have never heard his show. And reports of the survey's details suggest that Limbaugh suffers from weakness with independent voters.
Those two facts could prove dangerous for the Democrats in the future. Here's how:
Independents are the swing voters who place either Democrats or Republicans in the White House and in control of the House or Senate. When times are good, most independents will stick with the party for which they last voted. But let an unpopular policy start to get legs -- such as Hillary Clinton's health care proposal years ago -- or let the nation appear to be headed the wrong way while one political party is in charge, and look out!
Independents are open-minded. They will also turn on a dime. Here's a good example: How does anyone think that the Republicans managed to capture the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994 after decades of solid Democratic control and with Bill Clinton in the White House? The answer was "Hillary Care," combined with a general feeling that things in general weren't going so great under Democratic rule.
That's where this Limbaugh strategy seems flawed to me. By taking on Rush, the Democrats are calling attention to his show. That adds listeners. If President Obama were to continue sinking in the polls, and should some of his major early initiatives start to become unpopular, it is highly likely that the curious might just tune in Limbaugh to see what "the other side" has to say.
Limbaugh has two things already going for him. First, he has nearly a third of the nation that views him favorably. Second, anyone who listens to his show knows that Limbaugh plays the role of pompous ringmaster, but in jest. After five minutes it is clear that he is not a hatemonger. And he articulates a message that disaffected independent voters might readily embrace. There is, after all, a reason why he is the No. 1 talk show host in America.
In public opinion polling we keep in mind something that often is not obvious. If just 5 percent of those who say they have an unfavorable opinion of someone shift to favorable, it can be huge. For example, if 7 percent of those who view Limbaugh unfavorably switch to a favorable view, that makes the numbers 37 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable. A statistical tie. Curious independent voters could make that a reality.
The Democrats need to hope that things go well and Limbaugh doesn't keep adding listeners as a result of this attack strategy. Otherwise, two years from now it may be Rush who is in the 50 percent-plus favorable column. That would be quite a feat for a talk show host, and a true threat to the Democrats.
Finally, a correction. Last week I suggested that Speaker Nancy Pelosi flies in private airplanes. Instead, the planes are military ones, and were also provided to high government officials under the Bush administration. Even so, after the revelations of the last few days, I figure the public has heard plenty enough about Pelosi and planes.
20 million listeners weekly...
An ever-growing audience since 1988...
Ya think???
So they go after Limbaugh to provoke him or stop him? And if they “stop him” from doing whatever but not talking, then what? Start targetting the Limbaugh audience?
Sounds like a set up of media manipulation, getting ready to portray white men as crazy Limbaugh listeners to me. They will continue going ahead against guns and let the gangs ganging on one and getting away with murder by such single sacrifice in US courts and opinion manipulation halls.
Scapegoating is what it is.
But then what? Can’t lay the blame of their own disatifaction and failures on every joe out there. It’s ridiculous.
Tomorrow they will sweeten Obama and call him Reagan or Rush Limbaugh. Watch those nuts in action.
Limbaugh won this faux battle rather easily on all levels.
It will drive people to listen to him.
They have driven my wife there because they have awaken her interest in what he has to say ... and she loves the guy, now!
Thank you Nazi Pelosi!
Sounds like the Dems are planning tomtake a pocketknife to a tank battle.
Sounds like the Dems are planning to take a pocketknife to a tank battle.
He declares himself to be a conservative; and articulates very clearly the significance of on going policy and legislation. He has a long view ... seeing the true direction we are headed.
He is an important part of ‘freedom’ in America.
Anyone who's ever actually listened to Rush knows that that is not the "complete opposite" of his persona. What it is is the complete opposite of the drive-by media's false portrayal of him.
The democrats taking on Limbaugh is silly.
Limbaugh holdsnoofficeand tomyknowledge hasnever stated he is running or will run for any office.
Limbaugh is a businessman, right now in a suckbutt economy doing terrific business.
The democrats were elected into office by the people to run the nation and make things better.
Since they took control of Congress in 2006 and the Whitehouse in 2008 not only have they not made things better they have made things extremely worse. Housing market crash, bank failures auto makers about to go into bankruptcy, the Dow had dropped to under 7,000, unemployment is at its highest rate in 30 years.
So while people are losing jobs and can not find new ones what are those elected democrats doing? Having public fights with Limbaugh.
Heres hoping that the American peoplecome to their senses in 2010 and 2012 and take steps tosave this Nation for real...
“Limbaugh won this faux battle rather easily on all levels.”
BINGO! And they’re talking about Rush’s popularity in the polls and approval rating as if he were president. The only approval rating Rush is interested in is the size of his audience, that translates into $400 million!
I guess it is best to let him slither back under his rock. But, when you get Carville mad, his reptilian features become so much more prominent ...
This is unbelievable. Has this jerk every LISTENED to Limbaugh, or does he get his public image from the DNC propaganda machine?
“It was enlightening. He was the complete opposite of his persona. He was soft-spoken, extraordinarily polite and clearly not taking himself too seriously. My friends who know him well tell me he is still that way today.”
Hell, if he listened to Limbaugh, he’d here someone that was considerate, funny, and kind on his show as well. Sure, he says he is all-knowing, etc., but he says it so you know it’s a joke.
And this guy thinks he sounds as shrill as Carville in his public persona? Sorry, I don’t think he has listened to either one of them. Just the DNC caricatures.
The attempt to make Rush, an unelected radio show host, the “leader” the GOP was a wise strategy and fraught with more danger for Republicans than Democrats.
If they can't lick 'im, they'll stomp 'im with their jackboots.
Limbaugh is an entertainer. Everytime he opens his mouth the Dems squeal like stuck pigs and bray like asses.
If they don’t like him they can always listen to Air America, if they can find it.
But they do have the media and police power on their side.
IMO, Republicans would be wise to run and anti-Gov’t candidate in 2012. Americans are mad at Gov’t, regardless of party. A true DC outsider is the way to go—Palin, Jindal, Sanford. An the author is right, idependents are very open to Rush’s message, as of now, because they are feeling ignored by the representatives.
IOW they planned for how Limbaugh and his supporters would react before they ever launched this offensive.
And I assume that they have many more moves left.
Good analysis. Dems are recruiting ditto-heads from independents and the young
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