Posted on 03/13/2009 9:25:05 AM PDT by Kaslin
First, just a word before the following is dismissed by Democratic readers as partisan, or as being from someone who doesn't know what he is talking about. My polling firm, InsiderAdvantage, is non-partisan. It polled the 2008 presidential race for the red-hot political site Politico, and was in a recent speech at Fordham University named by a guru who even D.C. liberals praise as one of the three most accurate national pollsters for the presidential contest.
This column isn't about partisanship. It's about strategy.
I've only met Rush Limbaugh once. It was back when I was politically active, running Newt Gingrich's campaign. One time in particular I had occasion to sit and casually chat with Limbaugh.
It was enlightening. He was the complete opposite of his persona. He was soft-spoken, extraordinarily polite and clearly not taking himself too seriously. My friends who know him well tell me he is still that way today.
Now for a second big personality, Democratic strategist James Carville. He was revealed just this week by media to have reportedly once said he hoped President Bush would fail -- just as Rush Limbaugh has recently been assailed for hoping the same about President Obama.
To be fair, Carville is much like Limbaugh. Sorry, conservatives, but while James can be nasty and shrill on TV -- and, as I write in my book, a tough political opponent -- he also is in private very polite and unassuming, not to mention kind and funny, too.
I would never make James Carville my target if I were trying to tear down the Democratic Party. Likewise, I would be wary of targeting Rush Limbaugh if I were an Obama strategist.
I can understand why some might suggest otherwise. A recent McClatchy newspaper poll reports that Limbaugh has only a 30 percent approval rating, and a 46 percent disapproval rating.
But that poll needs to be placed into perspective. It's likely that most of the 46 percent who say they view Limbaugh unfavorably have never heard his show. And reports of the survey's details suggest that Limbaugh suffers from weakness with independent voters.
Those two facts could prove dangerous for the Democrats in the future. Here's how:
Independents are the swing voters who place either Democrats or Republicans in the White House and in control of the House or Senate. When times are good, most independents will stick with the party for which they last voted. But let an unpopular policy start to get legs -- such as Hillary Clinton's health care proposal years ago -- or let the nation appear to be headed the wrong way while one political party is in charge, and look out!
Independents are open-minded. They will also turn on a dime. Here's a good example: How does anyone think that the Republicans managed to capture the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994 after decades of solid Democratic control and with Bill Clinton in the White House? The answer was "Hillary Care," combined with a general feeling that things in general weren't going so great under Democratic rule.
That's where this Limbaugh strategy seems flawed to me. By taking on Rush, the Democrats are calling attention to his show. That adds listeners. If President Obama were to continue sinking in the polls, and should some of his major early initiatives start to become unpopular, it is highly likely that the curious might just tune in Limbaugh to see what "the other side" has to say.
Limbaugh has two things already going for him. First, he has nearly a third of the nation that views him favorably. Second, anyone who listens to his show knows that Limbaugh plays the role of pompous ringmaster, but in jest. After five minutes it is clear that he is not a hatemonger. And he articulates a message that disaffected independent voters might readily embrace. There is, after all, a reason why he is the No. 1 talk show host in America.
In public opinion polling we keep in mind something that often is not obvious. If just 5 percent of those who say they have an unfavorable opinion of someone shift to favorable, it can be huge. For example, if 7 percent of those who view Limbaugh unfavorably switch to a favorable view, that makes the numbers 37 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable. A statistical tie. Curious independent voters could make that a reality.
The Democrats need to hope that things go well and Limbaugh doesn't keep adding listeners as a result of this attack strategy. Otherwise, two years from now it may be Rush who is in the 50 percent-plus favorable column. That would be quite a feat for a talk show host, and a true threat to the Democrats.
Finally, a correction. Last week I suggested that Speaker Nancy Pelosi flies in private airplanes. Instead, the planes are military ones, and were also provided to high government officials under the Bush administration. Even so, after the revelations of the last few days, I figure the public has heard plenty enough about Pelosi and planes.
20 million listeners weekly...
An ever-growing audience since 1988...
Ya think???
So they go after Limbaugh to provoke him or stop him? And if they “stop him” from doing whatever but not talking, then what? Start targetting the Limbaugh audience?
Sounds like a set up of media manipulation, getting ready to portray white men as crazy Limbaugh listeners to me. They will continue going ahead against guns and let the gangs ganging on one and getting away with murder by such single sacrifice in US courts and opinion manipulation halls.
Scapegoating is what it is.
But then what? Can’t lay the blame of their own disatifaction and failures on every joe out there. It’s ridiculous.
Tomorrow they will sweeten Obama and call him Reagan or Rush Limbaugh. Watch those nuts in action.
Limbaugh won this faux battle rather easily on all levels.
It will drive people to listen to him.
They have driven my wife there because they have awaken her interest in what he has to say ... and she loves the guy, now!
Thank you Nazi Pelosi!
Sounds like the Dems are planning tomtake a pocketknife to a tank battle.
Sounds like the Dems are planning to take a pocketknife to a tank battle.
He declares himself to be a conservative; and articulates very clearly the significance of on going policy and legislation. He has a long view ... seeing the true direction we are headed.
He is an important part of ‘freedom’ in America.
Anyone who's ever actually listened to Rush knows that that is not the "complete opposite" of his persona. What it is is the complete opposite of the drive-by media's false portrayal of him.
The democrats taking on Limbaugh is silly.
Limbaugh holdsnoofficeand tomyknowledge hasnever stated he is running or will run for any office.
Limbaugh is a businessman, right now in a suckbutt economy doing terrific business.
The democrats were elected into office by the people to run the nation and make things better.
Since they took control of Congress in 2006 and the Whitehouse in 2008 not only have they not made things better they have made things extremely worse. Housing market crash, bank failures auto makers about to go into bankruptcy, the Dow had dropped to under 7,000, unemployment is at its highest rate in 30 years.
So while people are losing jobs and can not find new ones what are those elected democrats doing? Having public fights with Limbaugh.
Heres hoping that the American peoplecome to their senses in 2010 and 2012 and take steps tosave this Nation for real...
“Limbaugh won this faux battle rather easily on all levels.”
BINGO! And they’re talking about Rush’s popularity in the polls and approval rating as if he were president. The only approval rating Rush is interested in is the size of his audience, that translates into $400 million!
I guess it is best to let him slither back under his rock. But, when you get Carville mad, his reptilian features become so much more prominent ...
This is unbelievable. Has this jerk every LISTENED to Limbaugh, or does he get his public image from the DNC propaganda machine?
“It was enlightening. He was the complete opposite of his persona. He was soft-spoken, extraordinarily polite and clearly not taking himself too seriously. My friends who know him well tell me he is still that way today.”
Hell, if he listened to Limbaugh, he’d here someone that was considerate, funny, and kind on his show as well. Sure, he says he is all-knowing, etc., but he says it so you know it’s a joke.
And this guy thinks he sounds as shrill as Carville in his public persona? Sorry, I don’t think he has listened to either one of them. Just the DNC caricatures.
The attempt to make Rush, an unelected radio show host, the “leader” the GOP was a wise strategy and fraught with more danger for Republicans than Democrats.
If they can't lick 'im, they'll stomp 'im with their jackboots.
Limbaugh is an entertainer. Everytime he opens his mouth the Dems squeal like stuck pigs and bray like asses.
If they don’t like him they can always listen to Air America, if they can find it.
But they do have the media and police power on their side.
IMO, Republicans would be wise to run and anti-Gov’t candidate in 2012. Americans are mad at Gov’t, regardless of party. A true DC outsider is the way to go—Palin, Jindal, Sanford. An the author is right, idependents are very open to Rush’s message, as of now, because they are feeling ignored by the representatives.
IOW they planned for how Limbaugh and his supporters would react before they ever launched this offensive.
And I assume that they have many more moves left.
Good analysis. Dems are recruiting ditto-heads from independents and the young
And voters will react accordingly.
He is liked by those who listen to him.
Those who poll against Limbaugh have never heard him.
Two liberals have mentioned Limbaugh to me in the past week, almost like a robotic talking point. The talking point is:
“So what do you think about Rush Limbaugh being the leader of the Republican party?”
My response was
- It was interesting that the Obama administration needed to create a boogeyman rather than do their job
- Rush is a conservative talk show host and is sharing a persepctive the rest of the media is supressing
- Rush Limbaugh makes a lot of sense and everyone should listen to what he says
Another thing you can do to drive liberals crazy is to say “Rush Limbaugh has said the *exact same thing* - you two must be simpatico!”
Remember the Riadi/Utah/coal maneuver?
That was a 5-rail bank shot we never saw coming, let alone understood, let alone stopped!
“The attempt to make Rush, an unelected radio show host, the “leader” the GOP was a wise strategy and fraught with more danger for Republicans than Democrats. “
Democrats always do better by deflecting away from the real issues and onto the phony issues of personality.
But IMHO, the only ones who takes that talking point seriously are Obama kool aid drinkers.
They should have a poll, that asks: “Who do you consider the leader or leaders of the REpublican party?”
I would put RNC Chair Michael Steele, minority leaders McConnell and Boehner, Govs Sanford, Jindhal, Palin, Perry, etc. in there. Maybe Cornyn. Maybe some would look to McCain. Maybe even Newt Gingrich. But Rush? A Carvellian joke.
Now, if Rush is the GOP leader and Obama is inviting the GOP leaders to the White House, then in this fantasy reality, Obama should invite Rush to the white house. That’ll be the day!
“IMO, Republicans would be wise to run and anti-Gov’t candidate in 2012.”
We DO have 2010 elections, and yes, the Democrats are making the 2010 issues very clear:
- Stop the Spending, Stop the deficits, stop the power grabs, stop nationalized healthcare, stop the CO2 cap-and-trade destruction of industrial America ...
... STOP OBAMA’S SOCIALISM
Get USA back to freedom.
We're dealing with ideological fanatics now, ultimately devoid of logic. IMO.
Have you noticed that the Dems attack Rush on his tone and not on his subject matter? That is a very basic debate strategy - if you don't want to address the subject matter, attack the opponent personally.
So far, it’s not “taking”.
But the last thing the GOP needs is to have Rush deemed to be its “leader”.
This thing ain’t over.
Don’t underestimate those guys.
Another thought:
Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Castro ... they all needed enemies for their demagoguery to work. When they run out of real enemies, they create ones.
This is what the Obama team knows as well. They NEED enemies to focus their kool aid drinking supporters on. If the Democrats stopped having right-wing boogeymen to fear, they’d be reduced to ... to ... THINKING.
A diehard liberal complained so bad about Rush Limbaugh
in 1991, that I wondered who Rush was and what was so bad.
Had never heard of him. Listened to him and have been since.
mrbill369
Yes, they’re using Alynski’s Rule #12 on Rush.
I got it. Imagine how competent they’d appear if they could not depend upon the complicity of the press.
Agreed.
And standards always have to be lower for Democrats.
The 0 already compared himself to Reagan
And with his brain tied behind him
He is indeed
Democrats in Washington are fools. Rush is just saying what the American people are saying. Only difference is he has the radio that gets Americans feelings out in the open.
“It was enlightening. He was the complete opposite of his persona. He was soft-spoken, extraordinarily polite and clearly not taking himself too seriously. My friends who know him well tell me he is still that way today.”
And haven't you ever been pleasantly been surprised by someone or something you thought was something completely different
Rush’s voice is going to be very important in the weeks and months ahead.
They’re not that smart. Bush had’em crawfishin’ a number of times, back before he lost his nerve. Rush has them crawfishing now.
Secondly, the fact that Obama wouldn't enter into a discussion/debate with Limbaugh proves how very well the Dems know Rush would pound the prez to pulp. That's why they have backed off the pressure about Rush's show, the're afraid that it would eventually lead to a showdown where Obama would not come out the winner. They have already given Rush and increased audience with their stupid slams.
Third, if they would continue and by any strange change - if they would succeed in getting Rush off the air -- then I am sure he would run for President. Obama would have to debate him then for sure. The Dems better thank their lucky stars if this quiets down and Rush goes on with his show and comments on other issues. Making Rush the Presidential enemy #1 has only shown Obama's and their extraordinary weaknesses,
Members of the government of the United States, our representatives, people who have sworn to uphold the constitution, are seeking to stifle the speech of an American citizen. They are doing so because they do not like what he is saying. They might even pass laws to prevent him and others from speaking their opionions on the public airwaves, having paid the necessary fees for particular frequencies and having satisfied the requirements for broadcasting.
Absolutely amazing.
IMHO
You've been away. Rush said, "OK, if I'm the leader of the opposition, fine. I challenge President obama to come here and debate the issues one on one." The WhiteHouse wet its collective pants, mumbled something up its sleeve about not being about to debate Rush Limbaugh, and this stupid gambit has not been heard since.
In the meantime, Obama's poll numbers sink, Rush's listener numbers rise.
I think you are totally barking up the wrong tree. If the outcome of this 'rat fiasco is what they planned on, then it was a supremely stupid plan. And no there are no "more moves left," unless you mean the brute force of the government which would result in the biggest backfire in political history. Send in the thugs and do the otherwise impossible--make Rush Limbaugh a victim. Yeah, that'll work great with the independents.
Nope. Rush defeated the 'rat strategem with ease.
Don't kid yourself.
C'mon. It was a F*ing brazen executive order. Just what do you think the GOP or anyone else could have done about it? Geez we impeached the sucker and it didn't make any difference in anything, so what else would you suggest?
Look, rats are devious and clever in a animal sort of way, but they aren't rocket scientists. Most of what they do is hit with blunt instruments--like lawsuits and EO's.
Don't kid yourself
Oh they will not stop trying. That's obvious. I have made the point myself on several occasions that they are trying to instigate the Orwellian "Two Minutes' Hate" against Rush as they did against Bush. But this "leader of the GOP" schtick flopped and it's dead in the water. The numbers don't lie. Maybe a few dead-enders in the media will rehash it some, but the "brains" will have taken their loss and moved on to something else.
If they can continually induce the decapitations of RNC chairmen while hammering home the mantra that the GOP takes its marching orders from Rush, the Dems win.
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