Posted on 04/15/2009 4:51:28 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Just a moment ago, Bob Shrum proclaimed that the tea parties are not "protests", but "squeaks". He further stated that anti-tax sentiment may be there in certain segments, it is nowhere near a majority, and has waned over the years. He said 10 years ago, anti-tax protests were far more momentous (think of it like an oil field; a strong opening, but a gradual depletion over time).
Shrum also said the GOP was in "deep trouble" and would not repeat 1994. He cited demographics and the shrinking Republican party. He said there will always be conservatives who are anti-tax, but they are severely outnumbered by Obamabots and are essentially irrelevant. He says conservatives are a dying breed and will not be an electoral force anytime soon.
I'm playing devil's advocate, and I'm not sure he's right. I'm praying he's wrong.
A Limbaugh "See, I told you so" moment is in the making...
He may have a point...there is a real disconnect between the DC GOP/RNC and the base conservative voter.
“Robert M. Shrum was senior advisor to the Kerry-Edwards campaign in 2004. The Atlantic Monthly described him as “the most sought-after consultant in the Democratic Party.””
The hell it won't. Most of the country doesn't vote at all. Quit trying to win a piece of a finite demographic pie and give the disaffected majority what they want.
Most of the country claims to be Christian and Conservative. They don't vote because nothing turns them on enough to make them quit working and go to the polls. Capturing even 5% of that vast unwashed majority means decided victory, and a mandate.
That is why Conservatism wins whenever it is tried. Reagan knew that. Why don't you?
As to the Most people don't vote, 2008 had very high turnout.
2008 turnout shatters all records
"..More than 130 million people turned out to vote Tuesday, the most ever to vote in a presidential election.
With ballots still being counted in some precincts into Wednesday morning, an estimated 64 percent of the electorate turned out, making 2008 the highest percentage turnout in generations..."
[...] 130 million [...] an estimated 64 percent of the electorate turned out [...]
There are 307m people in the United States. Roughly 62m are under the age of 15... leaving about 245m people 15 or older. 64% of that number is about 157m.
CIA.gov: "World Fact Book: United States" (estimated 2009 figures)
Now, that is a very liberal number, I will grant you- I am 3 years away from eligibility on the bottom end, but even allowing for that, there must be a helluva lot of felons to knock the numbers down that far (one is talking about at least a 25m disparity in the value of 64%).
Secondly, Every eight years can provide a record smashing turnout. Simple population increase demands it. That in and of itself is nothing incredible.
However, even if we use the numbers on their face, the truth is easy to see. The Republicans spent the entire run up to the election (4 years of it) running away from their base, while the Democrats spent that time and the election itself running toward the Conservative base, while staying true to it's own.
And the discontent (close to loathing) for the Republican direction within the rank and file can not be denied either. While ()bummer's mandate is assured, I would be willing to stake the future on the assumption that his success was largely in protest against the socialist Republicans rather than any ringing endorsement of ()bama or the Democrats.
The further to the left that the Republicans run, the less Republicans there are. Now down to 24%, and falling.
So you’re saying it’s over?
There will never be a conservative majority in congress or in the White House. Maybe a “Republican” (if we get lucky, we’ll get someone like Lincoln Chafee) but never a conservative ever again in American history?
It’s over??
I won’t accept it. I can’t and I won’t.
If what you’re saying is true, then I will quit my job, take out loans I can’t pay back, and play golf. There’s no point in working or pushing for conservative change if it’s over.
This administration and Congress are in the process of constructing a mansion of cards. Sooner or later, it will all cave in and conservatism will be alive and kicking. Will this happen before 2010? I believe the house will start its collapse before then, but a helpful media will focus attention elsewhere and the Dems will at least retain their majority status. BY 2012, this country could be in a major upheaval.
In my opinion, it is still about performance. As the left’s policies fail, and they will fail, i.e. by running inflation sky high, then unemployment through the roof, these policies will affect the average Joe and even the “recently arrived in our country” demographic. Let us see how much the demographic votes democrat then. What sucks is that in the meantime we have to wait for the amnesia to wear off as the country is brought to its knees.
Quote: “As to the Most people don’t vote, 2008 had very high turnout.”
Does that factor in population increase? I would be more interested in seeing the percentage of people who voted vis-a-vis the entire population.
50% or more of this country doesn’t vote. Those in part are the people we need to wake up. Keep opposing ACORN in the courts, press the conservative populism, job creation, and freedome messages til we’re blue, er red in the face! If people wanna succeed or even work, they’ll eventually vote conservative.
“May your chains rest lightly on you, noob. The rest of us have a country to reclaim. “
Hear, Hear!
“Demographics are destiny. The people who consume and take from government largess are on the verge of outnumbering those forced to pay into the system. Once that occurs, the conservative movement (at least on fiscal issues) will cease to be a political force with any power. Our only option will be to “Shrug” and refuse to work and continue to feed the welfare state engine. “
And like the huge PONZI scheme that that describes, this nation will topple like a house of cards. We cannot, nor will we let that happen. Nor could it last long. It would become like Mad Max out there.
I've wondered about how black lib voters are going to handle it in the when there isn't a black candidate for pres on the ticket. Will they respond with the same enthusiasm? Will democrats have to "create" a black primary candidate every election, just to keep that buzz going?
Probably vote in smaller numbers. And what will the white-guilt swing voters do when there's no viable black candidate to vote for to further assuage their guilt?
I just don't think we've had the realignment of coalitions some commentators seem to think. And maybe the Republicans will run better candidates and better campaigns in 2010 and 2012.
As bad as he was, McCain was ahead 4% before the financial crisis hit.
“As bad as he was, McCain was ahead 4% before the financial crisis hit.”
Yes, conservatives can really impact, even drive a national candidate (like Reagan), we can impact and drive races all over the country. We can see Hispanics, Asians and blacks enter the conservative movement (education and advocacy - wealth creation) - WHY ARE WE DESPAIRING? Nothing freaked out liberals more than when they thought, even for a moment, that dear leader may not get elected. They are human (like us), but they are really quite weak, and do not have a coherent, sustainable political philosophy other than pigs at the trough. It’s time to get busy! Who’s with me?
“..With ballots still being counted in some precincts into Wednesday morning, an estimated 64 percent of the electorate turned out, making 2008 the highest percentage turnout in generations...” ..”
Sorry, I missed that.
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