"Democrats" could face severe losses in 2010 governors' races

My own research ^ | 9/10/09 | Dangus

[dangus]

DEMOCRAT INCUMBENT

Arkansas (Beebe): Safe D

Colorado (Ritter): Leans R

Illinois (Quinn): Leans R ***

Iowa (Culver): Leans R

Maryland (O'Malley): Likely D

Massachusetts (Patrick): Leans R

New York (Patterson): Tossup ***

Ohio (Strickland): Tossup

DEMOCRAT-HELD OPEN SEAT

Kansas: Likely R

Maine: Leans D*

Michigan: Leans R

New Mexico: Likely D

Oklahoma: Likely R

Oregon: Leans D*

Pennsylvania: Tossup*

Tennessee: Leans R

Wisconsin: Tossup*

Wyoming: leans D**

REPUBLICAN-HELD OPEN SEAT

Alabama: Safe R

California: Tossup

Florida: Likely R

Hawaii: Likely D

Rhode Island: Leans D*

South Carolina: Likely R

South Dakota: Likely R

REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT

Alaska (Parnell): Likely R

Arizona (Brewer): Unknown*

Connecticut (Rell): Safe R

Idaho (Otter): Safe R

Nebraska (Heineman): Safe R

Nevada (Gibbobs): Leans R ***

Texas (Perry): Safe R

Utah (Herbert): Likely R*

I don't claim any inside knowledge or special insight into local situations; these predictions are based on any available polling data, statewide voting trends, and news accounts about potential candidates. I welcome any alternate opinions, or further information about local circumstances. All speculation weighs outcomes of various match-ups and eligibilities according to cumulative likelihoods.

* Insufficient polling data for individual candidates; supposition based on trends of popularity of parties.

** Current governor is very popular, but barred from running under current statute; A challenge to the constitutionality of the law is likely.

*** Governor's party is more likely to retain control if the incumbent is ousted in primary.

[dangus]

In the recent past, I highlighted eight senate seats that the GOP could very likely gain, and how further gains in subsequent elections would almost be inevitable; I also pointed out that there were about 100 Democratic house seats that the GOP could likely gain, using data gathered from the Cook Partisan Index. (The next night, on Fox Dick Morris claimed that the GOP could gain 100 seats)

[killer_rat]

I’m calling it here-and-now—the next Governor of PA will be Tom Corbett, the current (R) Attorney General.

[FlingWingFlyer]

As for Arizona, Brewer has said she plans to run. After Wacky Janet the Lesbo bankrupted the state, I’m pretty confident that Brewer will be elected. IMHO.

[D-fendr]

When will the dems realize they are being asked to commit suicide for Obama’s FDR fantasy?

[elizabethgrace]

What are you predicting for 2009’s governors’ races in VA and NJ?

[Question Liberal Authority]

You're dead on having Arizona in the "unknown" column. That's going to be some weird wild wacky race.

The current governor (Republican Jan Brewer) got the gig when Janet Napolitano became Secretary of Homeland Security. But there was a long, long contentious battle over the state budget, and the people she was battling the most were Republicans.

Arizona used to be reliably conservative, or at least "Mavericky", but with the influx of Californians from the West, Snowbirds from the North and "Migrants" from the South, it's anybody's guess where the state lines up politically.

[ABQHispConservative]

Come on Arkansas, get rid of the rats! I don’t care how ‘conservative’ rats say they are, they are still rats and therefore liberals deep down!

[genghis]

nice post
your analysis seems lausible.
don’t forget the two races in 09 the normals are likely to pick up.

[fieldmarshaldj]

There aren’t even any declared, let alone potential, candidates for most of the AR statewide offices next year (only one for Lt Governor). It’s hard to overstate how badly Huckster crippled the state GOP, setting it back 4 decades during the course of his term (in 1967, we had three Republicans in major office there - in 2009, we have one, down from 5 under Huckster). All efforts there despite second-tier candidates, are going to be focused on taking down the vulnerable Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Beebe will probably get a pass.

[ABQHispConservative]

Man that sucks. I felt the same thing happened here in NM when Richardson got reelected. I didn’t hear about any candidate and then some time around the election some old guy comes on TV and he happens to be the candidate for governor. Pretty sad.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Seeing is believing. “All of politics” is really too unstable to be so sure about anything. Leftists are so “power drunk” that they really will do anything in order to remain in power for as close to forever as possible.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I couldn’t rate IL as “leans R” with or without Quinn, it’s still a “lean D.”

MA is complicated, it will be a 3-way race. Patrick is badly vulnerable, but the Dem that was likely to challenge him in the primary opted to switch to run as an Indy (Tim Cahill), and there were also be one of two very far-left RINOs running nominated. Cahill, the Indy, is the best bet for center-right voters, and I think he has a slight edge, but would put it all, 3 way, as a tossup.

NY is R with Paterson, lean D with Cuomo, tossup if Hillary vs. Rudy.

OH may be a lean R, actually.

ME hasn’t elected a GOP Governor since 1990, so I’d put it as tossup over party fatigue, but whomever wins will win by only a plurality, they have a few 3rd parties there that do well. An astonishing 41 (!) candidates are listed as possible entries for all parties.

NM I’d rate as potential tossup. Denish will inherit baggage from Richardson (who has yet another scandal just this week from a boating accident) and if the R’s put up someone decent, they could take it back.

OR - The Dems may have a brutal primary between the Sec of State Bradbury and ex-Gov. Kitzhaber, and if the R’s put up someone respectable, could pull off a win (and OR has gone 28 years without a GOP Governor, obvious party fatigue), I rate this as tossup.

WY - I’m unclear what’s going on here. I thought the term limits was in effect, it states 2 term max. I’d imagine if Freudenthal tries to challenge that, it may bite him. I’d put that alone as a lean R.

HI - I’d still put it at tossup, we have our only real first-tier candidate with Lt Gov Aiona facing off against a too-old Haole moonbat, Abercrombie (and even he may not win the nomination, since the Honolulu Mayor is running, too). Despite it being a fairly heavy Dem lean state, many of the Gubernatorial races have been close over the years, but with the Dems tending to prevail by a modest margin.

RI - Actually, this is a lean I, since the leftist ex-RINO turned Indy Linc Chafee is running, and he will be even more liberal than the eventual Dem nominee, nevermind the R candidate. However, if the R makes a race of it, he might get a plurality if all the liberals split between Chafee and the Dem.

SC - Leans R, since we’re still having that ugly situation down there that has a slim chance of benefitting the Dems.

AZ - I would put it as lean R, regardless of the nominee

CT - I’ve been told Rell may not run again, in which case, it goes to tossup, if not lean D

NV - with Gibbons, leans D, with Sandoval, leans R

[unkus]

Ritter (D) in Colorado is in trouble.

[fieldmarshaldj]

What was worse in ‘06, the initial GOP nominee quit in NM and John Dendahl, the party chair, had to swiftly fill in (for all the good that did). Dendahl knows the epic-level rodent corruption in the state and he actually moved out of state shortly after the election, he didn’t feel safe there, and it was hard to blame him (there was an article he wrote, a tell-all of sorts, outlining what exactly happened - I’ve forgotten the link, you might’ve read it).

I’m not sure who should run for our side, I think Allen Weh has baggage, and the fact he was chair for the ‘08 cycle, the worst the state has seen for the GOP since, what, 1964, means he doesn’t look all that great. Heather Wilson looks a no-go. The rest are second-tiers. I still believe Denish is very vulnerable, and Richardson, who is as creepy and as crooked as they come, may end up costing her the office (and frankly, I think the party should play up that she put up with his sexual harrassment in order to get the office and kept her mouth shut, which is inexcusable).

[Jim from C-Town]

All I know is that Strickland in OH has got to go. He makes Taft look competent and exciting.

[Alter Kaker]

I think we definitely pick up seats, but I think you're being a tad optimistic.

1. I see no way Patterson wins the NY Dem Primary. Since the only way we can win the seat is if Patterson is the nominee, I see GOP chances as pretty bleak.

2. Florida isn't likely R. Leans R definitely.

[SmokingJoe]

“NY is R with Paterson, lean D with Cuomo, tossup if Hillary vs. Rudy.”

There is simply NO WAY Paterson wins the Democratic nomination against Cuomo. If by some miracle, Paterson were to win the Democratic nomination, he'd get slaughtered in the elections.
Meanwhile, Giuliani has yet to confirm that he's going to run. He's been playing coy as usual. And even if Giuliani runs, he's going to find it pretty hard to beat Cuomo. As for Hilary, I really doubt if she even wants to be Governor of any state. She still wants the presidency, and is secretly glad 0bama is slashing and burning.

[Liz]

Dems are helping Republican victories happen---everytime Americans see these miserable faces pop-up on TV screens: Ohaha, Bwaney Fwank, Nancy Pelosi, Rahm Emanuel, Charlie Rangel, etc.

The Latest Dem Gift to Republicans: House Plans to Admonish Rep. Wilson Over Outburst

How nice of Dems to promote Joe Wilson---a towering leader of national stature---with the ability to organize huge numbers of people.

Fully 75% of Americans polled agrees with Joe Wilson calling Ohaha a liar.

Thanks to the Dems, Republicans have a viable 2012 presidential candidate. Can't wait for Joe Wilson's debates with Ohaha.

See Joe Wilson. See Wilson run. See Wilson debate Ohaha.

https://www.completecampaigns.com/public.asp?name=Wilson&page=2

[Feasor13]

After what Granholm has done to the state I don’t see MI returning a Democrat to Lansing. It helps that the Kwame machine has been exposed and dismantled as well. Here’s hoping the R’s don’t nominate a douchebag in the election.

[MARTIAL MONK]

In New Mexico Zanetti is out for Governor and Damron is in for Lt. Governor. Damron matches Richardson in the creep department. Wilson is still a very strong possibility.

This one goes Democrat.