Posted on 03/25/2010 1:16:33 PM PDT by dangus
The latest polls suggest the Republicans could pull off a sweep of unprecedented porportion in statehouse races, virtually wiping out the Democrat party. The following data come from the latest Rasmussen poll, if available. Otherwise, the poll source is noted. Results shown compare the Republican who performs best against the Democrats, versus the Democrat who performs best against Republicans. This may bias selection towards well-established candidates, and is not meant to suggest that the selected candidate is more electable or the best candidate. The party indicated is the party of the current leader, who is listed first. Further analysis follows the table.
| Open Democratic Seats | |
| Colorado: | R: McInnis 48, Hickenlooper 42 |
| Kansas: | R: Brownback 55, Tolland 33 |
| Maine: | R: Mills 43, Mitchell 31 |
| Michigan: | R: Hoesktra 41, Dillon 34 |
| New Mexico: | D: Denish 45, Domenici 40 |
| New York: | No announced Democratic candidate (Likely D if Atty Gen. Cuomo Runs) |
| Oklahoma: | R: Fallin 51, Edmonson 36 |
| Oregon: | D: Kitzhaber 40, Lim 38 (R favored: Kitzhaber is former Governor; Lim is largely unknown.) |
| Pennsylvania | R: Corbett 46, Onorato 29 |
| Tennessee | R: Haslam 45, McWherter 27 |
| Wisconsin | R: Walker 48, Barret 42 |
| Democrats for Re-election | |
| Arkansas | D: Beebe (unopposed, so far) |
| Illinois | R: Brady 47, Quinn 37 |
| Iowa | R: Brandstad 52, Culver 36 |
| Maryland | D: O'Malley 49, Erlich 43 |
| Massachusetts | D: Patrick 35, Baker 32, Cahill (Ind.) 19 (Tossup: 3rd part voters likely to break towards an opponent of Patrick's) |
| New Hampshire | D: Lynch 51, Kimball 32 |
| Ohio | R: Kasich 49, Strickland 38 |
| Open Republican Seats | |
| Alabama | R: No polling, but Republicans are heavily favored. |
| California | R: Whitman 45, Brown 39 (PPIC) |
| Connecticut | D: Lamont 40, Foley 37 (R favored: Lamont is former Senator candidate, whereas Foley is unknown.) |
| Florida | R: McCollum 48, Sink 36 |
| Georgia | R: Handel 42, Barnes 39 |
| Hawaii | D: Abercrombie 43, Aiona 34 |
| Minnesota | R: Seifert 41, Dayton 39 |
| South Carolina | R: Barrett 40, Rex 31 |
| South Dakota | R: Daugaard 41, Heindepreim 32 |
| Vermont | R: Dubie 46, Markowitz 39 |
| Republican Incumbent Facing Difficult Primary | |
| Arizona | R: Martin 43, Goddard 38 (Brewer, who replaced Democratic Governor Napolitano, is losing) |
| Idaho | R: (Challenger Rammell or Incumbent Governor Butch Otter would be heavily favored to win general election) |
| Nevada | R: Sandoval 53, Reid 35 (Gibbons, rocked by sex scandal, is losing) |
| Unelected Republican Incumbent | |
| Alaska | R: Parnell widely expected to win easily. |
| Utah | R: Herbert 55, Corroon 32 |
| Republicans for Re-election | |
| Nebraska | R: Heineman 61, Lakers 23 |
| Texas | R: Perry 49, White 43 |
| Already won in 2009 | |
| Virginia | R: McDonnell 59, Deeds 41 |
| New Jersey | R: Christie 49, Corzine 45 |
If the latest Rasmussen poll results were used as ballots, the Democrats would win only eight statehouses. But its worse than that:
John Kitzhaber.
Good times that! LOL!
You don’t have your facts put together very well.
Whitman vs Brown in California is gubernatorial race not a congrassional race. The race of interest is Boxer vs???? Right now Campbell leads that three way but I distrust that POS so...
Anyway, because of this glaring error on your part I trust none of the rest of your analysis or reporting
If Republicans do pull off an major upset in states across the nation, they will be in a great position to legislate on Census results and redistricting.
I’m hoping the anger can be sustained and magnified from now until November. No doubt the media and democrats will attempt to throw distractions out one after the other till then.
“The race of interest is Boxer vs???? Right now Campbell leads that three way but I distrust that POS so...”
Actually, I heard that Carly Fiorina has pulled one point ahead of Tom Campbell.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/03/ppic-poll.html
>> You don’t have your facts put together very well. Whitman vs Brown in California is gubernatorial race not a congrassional race.<<
I don’t gave my FACTS put together very well? Every race listed is a GOVERNOR’S race. The article is about the STATES, not D.C.
>> Anyway, because of this glaring error on your part I trust none of the rest of your analysis or reporting <<
I’m so crushed. (/sarc)
To quote the lead paragraph:
“Results shown compare the Republican who performs best against the Democrats, versus the Democrat who performs best against Republicans. This may bias selection towards well-established candidates, and is not meant to suggest that the selected candidate is more electable or the best candidate.”
BUMP
>> Why is Domenici listed here? He’s polling at 5%. It should be Susana Martinez. <<
A fine question. And a fine question deserves a fine answer. And, oo, look! I happen to already have one ready. From the article:
“Results shown compare the Republican who performs best against the Democrats, versus the Democrat who performs best against Republicans. This may bias selection towards well-established candidates, and is not meant to suggest that the selected candidate is more electable or the best candidate.”
I would be interested in seeing your poll data about the race. The ones I saw, from NM St U had Domenici beating Martinez 29-11, as of Feb 13. Is your more current? Is she taking off in the polls?
That is good news-—— maybe???? I think Carly can beat old ugly Babs not so sure about any of the guys
Hey you are the one who labelled them open republican (or democrat) SEATS not me.
The trick with gambling is, if you don’t want to lose money don’t gamble. Do you really need a governmental body telling you how to spend you money? If Alabama votes Democrat over gambling then it is going to change the way I feel about Alabama voters.
That, my man, is the plan.
So this points to an 8 seat pickup for Republicans in the senate. That means we need at least one more with a Republican POTUS and VP and a majority in The House in order to undo some of the devastation In 2012. Oh wait, this includes Olympia Snow.
Looks like the slimey RAT AG Edmondson of OK is still in hiding trying to decide if he wants to file a lawsuit. Our Republican Governor candidate Mary Fallin is going to win and Oklahoma will be back Red for Governor.
For those who do not know, Edmondson was the RAT AG of OK who went in on the side of Gore in the 2000 FL fiasco after the state went for Bush and then after that he went in on the side of CT against the Boy Scouts and he thinks he can win in OK.
Oklahoma is going red in 2010 to match how we voted for President against ZERO/Biden!
A good overview of governors races.
Are you under the weird impression that governors don’t have seats?
And did you read the FIRST SENTENCE?
“The latest polls suggest the Republicans could pull off a sweep of unprecedented porportion in STATEHOUSE races (emphasis added)...”
Oh my!
I guess that means none of us can trust your ability to read, therefore we cannot trust a damned thing you say.
Not to mention the fact that we’ll be able to get tough voter ID laws through in all those states. Just imagine what would happen in PA if we could get a biometric voter ID law on the books.
Well, it's not a statewide poll, but a pre-primary vote from the NM GOP Convention - it has Martinez winning 47% to Domenici's 5%. A candidate that doesn't crack the 20% barrier is required to obtain twice the number of signatures in order to be on the Primary ballot. We shall see.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.