Latest Survey of Polls: Democrats to Get Crushed in the States

Rasmussen, unless noted ^ | 3/25/10 | Dangus

[dangus]

The latest polls suggest the Republicans could pull off a sweep of unprecedented porportion in statehouse races, virtually wiping out the Democrat party. The following data come from the latest Rasmussen poll, if available. Otherwise, the poll source is noted. Results shown compare the Republican who performs best against the Democrats, versus the Democrat who performs best against Republicans. This may bias selection towards well-established candidates, and is not meant to suggest that the selected candidate is more electable or the best candidate. The party indicated is the party of the current leader, who is listed first. Further analysis follows the table.

Open Democratic Seats
Colorado:	R: McInnis 48, Hickenlooper 42
Kansas:	R: Brownback 55, Tolland 33
Maine:	R: Mills 43, Mitchell 31
Michigan:	R: Hoesktra 41, Dillon 34
New Mexico:	D: Denish 45, Domenici 40
New York:	No announced Democratic candidate (Likely D if Atty Gen. Cuomo Runs)
Oklahoma:	R: Fallin 51, Edmonson 36
Oregon:	D: Kitzhaber 40, Lim 38 (R favored: Kitzhaber is former Governor; Lim is largely unknown.)
Pennsylvania	R: Corbett 46, Onorato 29
Tennessee	R: Haslam 45, McWherter 27
Wisconsin	R: Walker 48, Barret 42
Democrats for Re-election
Arkansas	D: Beebe (unopposed, so far)
Illinois	R: Brady 47, Quinn 37
Iowa	R: Brandstad 52, Culver 36
Maryland	D: O'Malley 49, Erlich 43
Massachusetts	D: Patrick 35, Baker 32, Cahill (Ind.) 19 (Tossup: 3rd part voters likely to break towards an opponent of Patrick's)
New Hampshire	D: Lynch 51, Kimball 32
Ohio	R: Kasich 49, Strickland 38
Open Republican Seats
Alabama	R: No polling, but Republicans are heavily favored.
California	R: Whitman 45, Brown 39 (PPIC)
Connecticut	D: Lamont 40, Foley 37 (R favored: Lamont is former Senator candidate, whereas Foley is unknown.)
Florida	R: McCollum 48, Sink 36
Georgia	R: Handel 42, Barnes 39
Hawaii	D: Abercrombie 43, Aiona 34
Minnesota	R: Seifert 41, Dayton 39
South Carolina	R: Barrett 40, Rex 31
South Dakota	R: Daugaard 41, Heindepreim 32
Vermont	R: Dubie 46, Markowitz 39
Republican Incumbent Facing Difficult Primary
Arizona	R: Martin 43, Goddard 38 (Brewer, who replaced Democratic Governor Napolitano, is losing)
Idaho	R: (Challenger Rammell or Incumbent Governor Butch Otter would be heavily favored to win general election)
Nevada	R: Sandoval 53, Reid 35 (Gibbons, rocked by sex scandal, is losing)
Unelected Republican Incumbent
Alaska	R: Parnell widely expected to win easily.
Utah	R: Herbert 55, Corroon 32
Republicans for Re-election
Nebraska	R: Heineman 61, Lakers 23
Texas	R: Perry 49, White 43
Already won in 2009
Virginia	R: McDonnell 59, Deeds 41
New Jersey	R: Christie 49, Corzine 45

If the latest Rasmussen poll results were used as ballots, the Democrats would win only eight statehouses. But its worse than that:

• Gov. Patrick (D-MA) has sky-high disapproval ratings. He scores highest in the poll, but most who vote for one of the opposing candidates would choose the other opposing candidate over Patrick. This suggests the opposition will solidify behind one of Patrick's opponents, providing sufficient votes to oust him.
• Ned Lamont is highly liked among Democrats, but only receives 40% of the total vote. Undecideds are expected to break heavily towards his opponent, Tom Foley, heretofore unheard of except because of him unfortunate namesake.
• Likewise, Neil Abercrombie, a very well-known congressman, has a significant but unimpressive lead over Duke Aiona; Again, undecideds may break heavily towards the Republican.
• Perhaps most impressively, John Lim, a mere state Senator, is neck-and-neck with formular (and then highly popular) Governor

  John Kitzhaber.

And yes, there's not likely to be more than six incumbents re-elected... from both parties combined!

[stboz]

There will be no elections.

Obama's owners will see to it that there will be a Reichstag Fire. Patriots and Minutemen will be summarily liquidated. A Waffen S.S. will carry it out.

[mo]

We the People need to be sure none run unopposed.....

[dangus]

I’m guessing Domenici wasn’t worried about collecting 2,400 signatures, and didn’t bother with their party, and the participants were angry at the snub. From the actual polling I’ve seen, I think Domenici is the heavy front-runner, even if only in the sense Crist was the heavy front-runner last fall in Florida. It sounds like a straw poll, and straw polls mean less than zero.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks dangus. But just in case...

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks AngelesCrestHighway.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Figuring out how California will vote is ....follow the candidate with name recognition...

Course Moonbeam might have too much recognition.

[mdmathis6]

They won’t be legalized to vote by then or 2012....but 2016 I think is where you’d see the greatest impact.

[Rocky]

Crushing is too good for them.