The Key House Races 2010 - Updated

We've made a much requested change to the Master List format. We now show an "Incumbent or Open" column that will make it much easier to see which races are in districts where the seat is OPEN and whether it is a Republican seat or a Democrat seat. For those cases where there is an incumbent we now indicate whether the incumbent is a Republican or a Democrat.

And just a reminder: The Master List has 91 seats and 79 of those are Dem Seats. These are the vulnerable Democrats. We need to generate a net 39 seat pickup from those 79 Dems and right now the KHR projection is for a net pickup of 30 seats.

Other changes: Martha Roby won the runoff in AL-02 and she will be on the Republican ticket running against the Incumbent Dem Bobby Bright.

There were 10 changes in our "Expert" ratings by Election Projection and one from Real Clear Politics. All were favorable to the Republicans. So it was a shutout week for the Dems. Nice.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

There were a total of 11 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
11 were favorable to the Republicans
None were favorable to the Democrats

Those change leave our index at -.353. That looks less favorable than last week because of some errors that were discovered in the RCP entries that have been corrected. In any case, this was a good week for the Republicans.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Note: On July 20th Georgia will be holding their primary. We have Georgia's District 8 on our Key House Races list so we will be watching that one for sure.

August 10: Colorado, Conecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

I agree with your prediction that Democrats will have small majorities, next year. I think that Republicans will gain 25 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

Mahoney definitely looks like Guinta’s main competition. Gotta bump one of those other 2 guys off the list.

Months ago it appeared to me that Guinta would take the primary in a walk. Things have changed it seems.

Nhwingut seems like a good guy to go to for New Hampshire updates.

RE: Delaware

Moderate Michelle Rollins is the frontrunner, her main foe is the more conservative Glen Urquhart. http://www.glenurquhartforcongress.com/

Rose Izzo is an also ran.

We’ll shuffle that race around and list Sean Mahoney second. Things have really changed up there in the last couple of months. Bottom line is Che-Porter is very vulnerable and needs to go.

Is it okay to put you on the ping list? It would be helpful to have your input on both the NH races we have listed. Just chime in if you see anything you think needs a closer look.

Thanks.

California 47th Sanchez vs. Tran.

Van Tran has a real opportunity to take this one. The Vietnamese community is strong and getting stronger, he is well regarded by many and like so many Vietnamese who fled South Viet Nam when they could, he is a solid Conservative:

We are only half way through the Primary season so we have a situation where for about 1/2 the races we don't know who the candidates are.

True, a lot of these races are going to solidify after the primaries. You have my district (Mi-7) listed as a toss up but we're a traditionally GOP district. Once were down to just GOP vs Dem i think it will lean pretty firmly in the direction of the GOP.

Also there's the fact that you can't judge the feeling on the ground or read every comment made by the candidates. The democrat has admitted that his chances or reelection in this district are not great without Obama on the ticket. Also his fundraising appears to be primarily outside the district so I don't think he's getting much support from the actual voters.

I'm not trying to be critical, just trying to explain the uncontrolable limitations of your analysis for those who may be discouraged.

For what it's worth, here is my analysis of the Senate races, based on the most recent Rasmussen polls.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
18-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7

-PJ

Thanks for the input on that race. That was B1 Bob’s old seat - correct? So there have to be a lot of conservatives left in that district.

Joseph Cao, LA-2, is another first generation Vietnamese who has worked hard and thrived. We’re hoping we hold on to that seat.

Please keep us posted on any polls or other relevant information concerning this race.

I think it’s worth a lot. Often, we get inquiries about how the senate races are going and we really don’t know because we’re only focussed on the House ones - that’s enough to keep us very busy. So you are a good resource for information about the senate.

Your +7 number pretty much jives with what I’ve seen on CQ, Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato, etc.

When you click on the name Dave Argall for PA against Mark Crist, the link takes you to Frank Ryan’s site.

Unfortantely Col. Ryan lost to Mr. Argall for the nomination. You will want to remove the link and replace it with one that takes the reader to Argall’s site.

Nothing about Dave Argall is related to Frank Ryan’s site.

A 7 seat pickup sounds about right.

The problem here will be that the RINOs from the North East will become even more important than they are now when the Senate is close to 50/50. If the Republicans end up winning the Senate then they will the Kings and Queens who decide our fate. But I guess that is better than what we have now.

When you click on the name Dave Argall for PA against Mark Crist, the link takes you to Frank Ryan’s site.

I checked our original database, an Excel file, and it was correct with the link pointing to Dave Argall's campaign website. But the version posted on FR does point to the Frank Ryan website.

We did have Frank Ryan on our list before the primaries of course and it turns out that when I deleted the Frank Ryan entry in the Excel file it didn't actually delete the link. The field was blank but the link was still there. I guess that's an Excel feature not a bug. So I've updated the file to delete hidden Frank Ryan link so it should be OK the next time you see it.

Thanks for heads up.

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