The Key House Races 2010 - 24 July Update - Big Republican Gains

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 24 July 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

Georgia Primary: Austin Scott won the GA-08 primary and will be the GOP nominee running against the incumbent Dem Jim Marshall in November.

The REALLY BIG NEWS is that  were 44 changes in our "Expert" ratings this week. We had major changes by Rothenberg,  a few by Election Projection (as usual), 4 from the mostly quiet Real Clear Politics and a few from Cook. Sabato and CQPolitics were silent this week. 

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 37 were favorable to the Republicans
• 7 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.288 from last weeks -.353. That's the most favorable value of our index by far and is the largest change that we have recorded in a single week. This is due primarily to the large number of changes by Rothenberg in favor of the Republicans. The -.288 value means that the average rating of our "Experts" for the 91 races on our list is TOSS-UP but leaning D. If the value of the index gets into positive territory then we will have a Republican landslide in November. And remember, this index started out at -.585 back in April. That was a LEANS D average. Since then the trend has been a continuous re-evaluation by our "Experts' in favor of the Republicans. We expect that trend to continue.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Just a reminder: Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:

August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Louisiana

Here is the chart from our EXPERTS page for July 24th. Lots of RED in 4 of the 6 Experts columns. Those are the ones that have changed this week in favor of the Republicans.

District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
AL	2	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	-1	0	0	AL	2
AR	1	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	1	0	0	0	AR	1
AR	2	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	1	1	2	1	2	1	AR	2
AZ	1	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	0	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	AZ	1
AZ	5	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	AZ	5
AZ	8	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	AZ	8
CA	3	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	1	1	2	CA	3
CA	11	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	CA	11
CA	47	Likely D	-2.5	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	CA	47
CO	3	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	-1	CO	3
CO	4	Leans R	0.7	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Likely R	Leans R	0	0	1	0	2	1	CO	4
CT	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-2	-3	-1	CT	4
CT	5	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	CT	5
DE	AL	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	DE	AL
FL	2	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	FL	2
FL	8	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	FL	8
FL	12	Likely R	2.5	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	2	2	3	2	3	3	FL	12
FL	22	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	FL	22
FL	24	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	1	0	FL	24
FL	25	Leans R	1.5	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	1	2	FL	25
GA	8	Likely D	-2.0	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Leans D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-1	-2	GA	8
HI	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Leans D	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	-1	0	1	0	0	-1	HI	1
IA	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	IA	3
ID	1	Leans D	-0.8	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	0	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	ID	1
IL	8	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Toss-Up	Leans D	-2	-3	-3	-2	0	-1	IL	8
IL	10	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	IL	10
IL	11	Toss-Up	-0.2	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	-1	-1	1	-1	0	1	IL	11
IL	14	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	0	0	-1	0	0	-1	IL	14
IN	2	Leans D	-1.2	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	IN	2
IN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	1	0	1	IN	8
IN	9	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	IN	9
KS	3	Leans R	0.7	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	0	0	1	1	1	1	KS	3
LA	2	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Likely D	-1	-2	-1	0	-2	-2	LA	2
LA	3	Likely R	1.7	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	2	2	LA	3
MA	10	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	1	-1	-2	0	MA	10
MD	1	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	MD	1
MI	1	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	MI	1
MI	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	MI	7
MI	9	Likely D	-1.8	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-1	-2	-2	-2	-3	-1	MI	9
MN	1	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	MN	1
MN	6	Likely R	2.3	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	2	2	3	2	3	2	MN	6
MO	4	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	MO	4
MS	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	MS	1
NC	8	Toss-Up	-0.5	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Leans R	0	-1	-1	0	-2	1	NC	8
ND	AL	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	ND	AL
NE	2	Likely R	2.0	Likely R	Likely R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	2	2	2	2	2	2	NE	2
NH	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	1
NH	2	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	2
NJ	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	NJ	3
NM	1	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-1	-1	-1	NM	1
NM	2	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	NM	2
NV	3	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	NV	3
NY	1	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	NY	1
NY	13	Leans D	-1.5	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	0	NY	13
NY	19	Leans D	-0.8	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	0	0	NY	19
NY	20	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	-1	NY	20
NY	23	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	NY	23
NY	24	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	NY	24
NY	25	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	NY	25
NY	29	Leans R	1.2	Leans R	Toss-Up	Mod R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	1	0	2	1	2	1	NY	29
OH	1	Leans R	0.8	Leans R	Toss-Up	Mod R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	2	0	1	1	OH	1
OH	2	Safe R	2.8	Safe R	Safe R	Mod R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	3	3	2	3	3	3	OH	2
OH	13	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	OH	13
OH	15	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	OH	15
OH	16	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	1	OH	16
OH	18	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	OH	18
PA	3	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	PA	3
PA	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	PA	4
PA	6	Likely R	1.7	Likely R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R	2	1	2	2	2	1	PA	6
PA	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	PA	7
PA	8	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	0	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	8
PA	10	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-2	-2	-1	PA	10
PA	11	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	PA	11
PA	12	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	12
PA	17	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	PA	17
SC	5	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	SC	5
SD	AL	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	-1	0	1	SD	AL
TN	4	Likely D	-2.2	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-2	-1	TN	4
TN	6	Likely R	2.2	Leans R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	3	3	2	2	2	TN	6
TN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	TN	8
TX	17	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	TX	17
TX	23	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	-1	TX	23
VA	2	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	VA	2
VA	5	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Mod R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	2	0	0	1	VA	5
VA	9	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-2	-1	-1	0	VA	9
VA	11	Leans D	-1.2	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	VA	11
WA	3	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	WA	3
WA	8	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Leans R	1	1	2	2	1	1	WA	8
WI	7	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	WI	7
WI	8	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-1	-1	-1	-2	-1	WI	8
WV	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	-1	0	0	0	WV	1
District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
Average		Toss-Up	-0.288	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up
Updated		24-Jul-10		-0.411	-0.611	-0.100	-0.367	-0.389	0.144
Rating and Color Code			Average Expert
			Rating
			From	To
Safe D			-3	-2.5
Likely D			-2.5	-1.5
Leans D			-1.5	-0.5
Toss-Up			-0.5	0
Toss-Up			0	0.5
Leans R			0.5	1.5
Likely R			1.5	2.5
Safe R			2.5	3.5

[InterceptPoint]

If you ask me - WA 1 is IN PLAY:

We're going to do a review of our list in the next couple of weeks. There are a few races where our "Experts" have moved their assessment from SAFE D or LIKELY D to LEANS D. If we see that LEANS D rating from more than one "Expert" the race is likely to make it to the Master List. But really good poll numbers might do it also if the polls are legit. We're starting to put some energy into tracking the polls and good polling tends to wake our "Experts" from their normal slumber. I think that's what happened this week to Rothenberg.

[InterceptPoint]

Nice chart.

But...

”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Why round down? Why not just round off. I'd be glad to take a 30.51 and call it a 32. ;)

[Political Junkie Too]

I thought about that, but the reality is that you can't take a partial seat. Since it's based on the probabilistic mean, I figured that you have to earn it outright, which is why I round down.

Next week, I'll resize the chart to not be so big when posted.

-PJ

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

No blood, no foul.

Have a nice weekend.

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

As a point....

There are Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF’s) and Probability Distribution Functions (PDF’s). There are no Cumulative Probability Distributions. What you showed was a graph of the CDF (sort of).

[RachelFaith]

It has been in my tagline for two years. 2010 will be a 100 seat TSUNAMI! Forget the 30 seat nonsense. No one is saying 50 seats.... I say 100 Seats!

The single greatest realignment of power away from the Democrats since the Southern Delegation walked out to form their own nation in 1861!

[GailA]

A small reminder

[Political Junkie Too]

All the classes that I've taken refer to S-Curves as cumulative probability distributions because they are formed by sorting the outcomes and adding up the individual outcome probabilities. The plots show increasing probability outcomes until you reach 100% probability and the associated outcome.

The cumulative probability distribution shows the probability of the outcome being that result or less.

Perhaps you're thinking of something else?

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

It looks like the terms are used interchangeably.

-PJ

[raybbr]

Thanks for the ping.

[MSF BU]

Brown carried MA 10 by 20 points and it leans democrat?

[mazda77]

Seems to me this whole chart leans from a baseline favorable to the Democrats and being a normal election cycle I could understand it. THIS IS NOT A NORMAL CYCLE and the probabilities of it being anything remotely so are really unfounded and unmeasurable.

What I measure is the despiration displayed by the Dem base in calling up the racist crap this early and in all reality as early as the Obamacare vote. The race card is always an issue that is kept in dry storage until October as the final jab. This is waayyyy to early for them to bring out their last cannonball.

[1035rep]

Bookmarked. Good info and thanks for the ping!

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

No they are not used interchangeably by people who know what they are doing.

The CDF must integrate to 1 over the range of the CDF. It is a precise mathematical definition used in probability theory.

There is no such thing as a Cumulative Probability Function.

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm plotting the results of monte carlo simulations. What would you have me call it?

-PJ

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

Again, there is no such thing as a “Cumulative Probability Distribution”. It’s right up there with Pink Unicorns.

What you showed was something that starts at zero and increases monotonically to 1. THAT is a Cumulative Distribution Function (as I remember those are the only two requirements for both continuous and discrete CDFs). Just wiki the darn thing and learn.

Here, I’ll even do it for you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function#Properties

[randita]

Question: Working from the Master List, are you counting the GOP Holds into the GOP Gain column?

I’m not sure if you mentioned that or not. There are 9 seats on the list that are now GOP. We need to hold them, plus flip 39 currently DEM seats to achieve 218.

[Political Junkie Too]

In the circles I frequent, that's what we call it.

But, since you asked to be off this ping list, I guess it doesn't really matter what I call it.

A rose by any other name would still smell as sweet.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm not sure what you mean. I'm simply taking the current GOP seat count (179), and subtracting it from the probability-weighted average of the simulation, rounding it down to the lower whole seat, and calling that the GOP Gain. Whether we claim a Democrat seat but lose a GOP seat in exchange is irrelevant. I'm just showing the net result.

-PJ

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

The circles that you frequent must be full of people that produce power point graphs for those who don’t understand what they are seeing.

I pointed out one small thing that you could have, all by yourself, googled and learned from. Instead you refused to take personal responsibility for what you wrote (”In the circles that I frequent”) and tried to protect your original conception of your credibility.

Sorry guy but blaming others doesn’t make up for a mistake in judgment.

The fact that you talk about things you don’t really understand is one reason why I think this ping list is dumb, D U M B, dumb. Another is that using ensemble averages of data based on different sampling techniques is the oldest dumb mistake of sophomoric self proclaimed statisticians. Since you’re giving me the brush off, I can only assume you don’t want to know about your errors in trying to make do without a formal understanding of the Logistics Regression Function.