Survey of most recent polling shows Republicans ahead in SIXTY House seats

Numerous ^ | 9/30 | Dangus

[dangus]

If you're district isn't on this list, it doesn't mean the Democrat is ahead, only that there is no polling demonstrating a Republican's lead.

I selected the best polling available for each of these races; In many cases, that means the most recent, but internal polls are viewed suspiciously. Internal polls are noted with a "D" or an "R" indicating which candidate paid for them.

SIXTY REPUBLICANS ALREADY LEADING
Arizona 1: Gosar 39, Kirkpatrick 43 (Lake-D, 8/30); 47-41 (AAF, 8/29); 43-43 (Moore, 8/31)
Arizona 5: Schweikert 50, Mitchell 44 (AAF, 8/29)
Arizona 8: Kelly 46, Giffords 46 (Ayers, 8/29)
Arkansas 1: Crawford 48, Causey 32 (Hendrix College, 8/17)
Arkansas 2: Griffin 52, Elliot 35 (Hendrix, 8/17)
California 11: Harmer 45, McNerney 44 (Ayers, 8/29)
Colorado 3: Tipton 51, Salazar 43 (Ayers, 8/29)
Colorado 4: Gardner 50, Markey 39 (Ayers, 8/29)
Colorado 7: Frazier 40, Perlmutter 39 (Magellan, 8/26)
Florida 2: Southerland 52, Boyd 37 (Tarrance, 4/13)
Florida 8: Webster 43, Grayson 36 (VSS, 9/27)
Florida 12: Ross 32, Edwards 35, Wilkinson 20 (Greenberg-D, 7/28)
Florida 22: West 48, Klein 42 (Wilson-R, 9/22)
Florida 24: Adams 49, Kosmas 39 (Fabrizio, 9/23)
Hawaii 1: Djou 50 (incumbent)
, Hanabusa 42 (Tarrance, 7/27)
Illinois 8: Walsh 48, Bean 37, Sheurer 5 (We Ask America, 2/18)
Illinois 11: Kinzinger 51, Halvorson 40 (POS, 8/10); 52-30 (We Ask America, 8/4)
Illinois 14: Hultgren 44, Foster 37 (We Ask America, 9/29)
Illinois 17: Schilling 41, Hare 38 (We Ask America, 9/8)
Indiana 8: Bucshon 43, Van Haaften 27 (POS, 7/22)
Iowa 2: Miller-Meeks 40, Loebsack 41, Sicard 6 (Tarrance, 9/14)
Iowa 3: Zaun 51, Boswell 41 (Ayers-R, 8/18); 39-48 (Voter Consumer Res., 9/3)
Maryland 1: Harris 43, Kratovil 39 (OnMessage-R, 9/21)
Michigan 1: Benishek 41, McDonwell 38 (Greenberg-D, 9/22); 39-25 (TargetPoint, 9/2)
Michigan 3: Amash 50, Miles 30 (We Ask America, 8/4)
Michigan 7: Walberg 50, Schauer 40 (Ayers/AAF, 8/18)
Michigan 9: Raczkowski 45, Peters 41 (Rossman, 9/13)
Mississippi 1: Nunnelee 50, Childers 42 (Tarrance, 6/9)
New Hampshire 1: Giunta 50, Shea-Porter 40 (ARG, 9/26)
New Hampshire 2: Bass 38, Kuster 36 (ARG, 9/26); 47-34 (Granite State, 7/27)
New York 19: Hayworth 44, Hall 42 (PPP, 9/12)
New York 29: Reed 44, Zeller 30 (Siena, 9/16)
North Carolina 2: Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 (SUSA, 6/16)
North Carolina 4: Lawson 47, Price 46 (Action, 8/10)
North Carolina 7: Pantano 46, McIntyre 45 (9/26)
North Dakota: Berg 48, Pomeroy 45 (Rasmussen, 9/20)
Ohio 1: Chabot 47, Driehaus 45 (Ayers/AAF, 8/21)
Ohio 2: Schmidt 44, Krikorian 41 (Pulse, 1/25)
Ohio 13: Ganley 41, Sutton 43 (Ayers/AAF, 8/19)
Ohio 15: Stivers 49, Kilroy 44 (Ayers/AAF, 8/21)
Ohio 16: Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 (Ayers/AAF, 8/21)
Ohio 18: Gibbs 43, Space 43, Sutton 5 (On Message, 8/4)
Pennsylvania 3: Kelly 42, Dahlkemper 38 (Franklin & Marshall College, 9/19)
Pennsylvania 7: Meehan 47, Lentz 26 (Franklin, 9/19)
Pennsylvania 8: Fitzpatrick 46, Murphy 36 (Franklin, 9/19)
Pennsylvania 10: Marino 40, Carney 36 (Critical Insights, 9/23)
Pennsylvania 11: Barletta 43, Kanjorski 32 (Critical Insights, 9/23)
South Carolina 5: Mulvaney 46, Spratt 46 (POS, 7/25)
Tennessee 8: Fincher 47, Herron 37 (Tarrance, 8/11)
Texas 17: Flores 55, Edwards 36 (OnMessage, 9/20)
Texas 23: Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37 (OnMessage, 8/16)
Virginia 2: Rigell 45, Nye 40 (Ayers, 6/26)
Virginia 5: Hurt 58, Perriello 35 (SUSA, 9/27)
Virginia 11: Fimian 42, Connolly 37 (ccAdvertising, 9/29)
Washington 2: Koster 50, Larsen 46 (SUSA, 9/2)
Washington 3: Herrerra 52, Heck 43 (SUSA, 9/14)
Wisconsin 7: Duffy 42, Lassa 41, Kauther 7 (Garin-D, 9/27)
Wisconsin 8: Ribble 49, Kagan 39 (Ayers, 8/19)
No polling exists for two more seats widely expected to go Republican:
Louisiana 3
Kansas 3: Yoder v Moore

There are thirty more seats where the Republican party is shown to be competitive:
Polls have indicated a Republican lead in several of these seats, but we selected the best poll available, not the most Republican-leaning one.

California 20: Vidak 46, Costa 48 (Susa, 9/12)
California 47: Tran 43, Sanchez 45 (Ayers, 8/29)
Connecticut 4: Debicella 42, Himes 45 (NRes, 8/18)
Connecticut 5: Caliguri 39, Murphy 40 (NRes, 8/31)
Florida 2: Southerland 52, Boyd 37 (Tarrance, 4/13)
Florida 25: Rivera 33, Garcia 40, Arrojo 7, Porter 2 (Greenberg-D, 9/19)
Georgia 8: McKeown 44, Bishop 50 (POS, 8/3)
Indiana 2: Walorski 44, Donnelly 45 (Ayers, 8/19)
Indiana 9: Young 41, Hill 42 (POS, 7/28)
Mississippi: Marcy 34, Thompson 35 (JMC Enterprises-R, 9/20)
Missouri 4: Hartzler 42, Skelton 50 (We Ask America, 8/17)
Nevada 3: Heck 43, Titus 47 (Mason-Dixon, 9/10)
New Jersey 3: Runyan 39, Adler 41 (Rutgers, 9/26) 38-41 (Monmouth, 9/30)
New Mexico 1: Barela 43, Heinrich 50 (Daily KOS/PPP, 9/26)
New Mexico 2: Pearce 42, Teague 45 (Research & Polling, 8/27)
New Mexico 3: Mullins 43, Lujan 49 (Daily KOS/PPP, 9/26)
New York 23: Doheny 39, Owens 41 (Ayers, 8/1)
New York 24: Hanna 40, Arcuri 48 (Siena, 9/15)
New York 25: Buerkle 41, Maffei 44 (Ayers, 8/1)
North Carolina 8: Johnson 34, Kissell 39 (POS, 8/29)
North Carolina 11: Miller 44, Shuler 45 (SUSA, 7/25)
Ohio 6: Johnson 44, Wilson 47 (POS, 8/2)
Oregon 1: Cornilles 40, Wu 46 (Moore, 5/27)
Pennsylvania 12: Burns 41, Critz 48 (Grove Insight-D, 9/9)
South Dakota: Noem 45, Herseth-Sandlin 47 (Rasmussen, 9/8)
Tennessee 4: DesJarlais 41, Lincoln 45 (POS, 8/12)
Virginia 9: Griffith 40, Boucher 50 (SUSA, 8/31)
West Virginia 1: McKinley 36, Olivero 41 (POS, 9/1)
Wisconsin 3: Kapanke 38, Kind 44 (POS, 7/19)
New York 1: Altschuler 44, Bishop 45 (January)

Note on poll quality: Many of these polls were conducted by polling firms with various interests in the election. They were not treated as internal polls unless my sources suggested the candidates paid for them. PPP (Public Policy Polling) is often paid for by DailyKOS, a very liberal-leaning organization, yet their polls usually are consistent with less partisan firms' polling. Many sources identify POS as Republican, but unless noted, they were not reported as having been paid for by a campaign, and their polling data actually tends more Democratic than comparable polls. Likewise, Tarrance and Moore polls are often identified as Republican, due only to having been affiliated with former Republican office holders. Monmouth, Franklin, Siena, Quinnipiac, Rutgers, and Hendrix refer to universities.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

That's the biggest in 'modern history'. I say screw modern history. We should be aiming for '94. Not 1994, but 1894.

[November 2010]

I don’t know the ins and outs of defunding anything when you control one house. Supposedly Congress can just not give funding for Obamacare. But what if Obama vetoes spending bills? Plays the blame game, shut down government crap. We are better positioned now for that than 95, when the DEMs lock on the MSM won the opinion battle for them. Will Tea Party still be active and communicating. Will our internet communication overcome the MSM?

And what happens with no spending for Obama care in the House allocated. IF House and Senate go into conference with different bills, how does the negotiation actually turn out? Another battle for public opinion if they can’t reconcile the bills.

I don’t even know how things are working right now since the Dems haven’t bothered to pass a budget. How is spending allocated? I have no idea. Government is out of control right now. No budget, unbelievable spending.

I think that’s how it works.

[Lakeshark]

Don't get cocky kid!

It ain't over, they're going to pull out the entire book of October surprises.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Very few. It looks to me like a list of seats that are considered ‘in play’. There are only 5 or so Republican seats in play and it’s starting to look like we’ll even hold Cao and Djou, so barring a major misstep from a candidate, it’s unlikely we’ll lose any of them.

[CPT Clay]

Heads up Ping

[CPT Clay]

I agree, the 1922 election. 76 seats is actually quite probable. It all depends on how demorallized the leftys are. I really warn against getting hopes up too high. The dems are going the low and dirty road of releasing sealed divorce settlements,tax liens, disgruntled former employees, and anything else they can fabricate.

[kidd]

Also:
Oregon 4 Robinson, DeFazio (Robinson claims to be up 1 from internal poll numbers)

[cripplecreek]

http://www.walbergforcongress.com/Home.aspx

Tonight’s Midnight Deadline

Today is the last day of the crucial 3rd quarter campaign finance reporting period. So many of you have been incredibly generous and Sue and I cannot thank you enough for placing this campaign in the position to win on November 2nd. We need a strong fundraising quarter to demonstrate that we will have the resources down the stretch to share our message and combat the distortions from the opposition. A contribution before midnight would greatly assist our campaign in continuing our momentum, and please encourage friends to contribute to our campaign as well. This is our moment to stop the Obama-Pelosi-Schauer agenda that is bankrupting our nation. This is our opportunity to make our voices heard loud and clear in Washington. To make a contribution, please click here or a check can be mailed to: Walberg for Congress 6769 Teachout Road, Tipton, MI 49287.

Mark Schauer, the national Democrats, and liberal unions have been pouring money into attacks ads and mailers, but because of your generous support, we have been able to fight back. To view our first ad, which is still airing, click here. And because of the numerous misleading attacks on the issue of Social Security, my mom stepped into the fray. Click here to see her ad.

Thank you.

---

Where I Stand
I’m Tim Walberg and this is where I stand:

* I stand for our Founding Principles - belief in God, our Declaration of Independence, and Constitution...

* I stand for Freedom - to start a business, to choose your doctor, what you drive, what you eat, to carry a gun, to teach & raise your own children, and to live your own life...

* I stand for Personal Responsibility - let’s reward good behavior and discourage bad behavior...

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* I stand for Life and all other American Traditional Values...

“The fundamental difference in this campaign is that I put my trust in the American people, and Mark Schauer puts his trust in big government.”

[RockinRight]

I wanna see that bitch Loretta Sanchez lose.

[MNJohnnie]

For the record, can the Obama care debacle be repealed without the Senate?

No but it can be defunded. All appropriation bills have to start in the US House.

[MNJohnnie]

As unpopular as Obama care is, forcing repeated vetos of Obamacare is probably a good thing for the GOP heading into 2012.

[Mr. Lucky]

Grammar.

[MNJohnnie]

Tea Party has to get more active after November 2

Cannot be said enough. To paraphrase Winston Churchill:

November 2nd is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, it is merely the end of the beginning.

[bert]

Ok, so the house can cut off funding.

If the main parts of the bill requiring funding don’t go into effect till 2013 and the parts in effect are essentially taxes that bring in revenue, what funding will be killed that matters?

[Truth is a Weapon]

The thing that could turn this into a bloodbath of epic proportions is that each of these races are independent (somewhat). The voters are not going to be able to look at results and say, well, the GOP now has a majority we can call off the dogs. Nope, the passion that brings them to the polls will cause them to vote for the conservative in their district. It may not turn out that way, also.

But I am hopeful that the rejection of the 0bama agenda will be so strong that the Dems will be in an even bigger panic after Nov 2 than they are now.

[MNJohnnie]

Any funding to implement, organize or pay for any administration by any agency to implement any part of the Obamacare law. It can stay on the books but the Obama regime will be unable to spend any money enforcing it.

[Oldpuppymax]

All well and good, but November is STILL a long way off. Besides, with the number of RINOs in the house, we’ll need the biggest margin we can get!!

[Truth is a Weapon]

Whether 0bamacare can be repealed depends on a lot of things that are not known yet. If 0bama were to veto a repeal, it takes 2/3s of both houses to override. But I have to believe that Senators Pryor, Nelson, Landrieu, Webb and other Dems from red states will beg 0bama not to veto it. And considering there may be any number of house investigations into impeachable offenses, he may not have the will to do it.

Who knows, the Dems may demand 0bama resign so Hillary can save their butts.

If by some wild chance Boxer, Murray, Gillibrand and Blumenthal are swept out, the Dems will be in true panic. No Dem senator will be safe in 2012.

[Zhang Fei]

Are these seats currently held by Democrats?

[WAW]

Amen.