Posted on 10/22/2010 8:09:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Not a disastrous poll — there are still 12 percent undecided — but after news broke about Frank having to loan himself money, I was hoping/thinking it’d be within single digits. Not yet, and time’s running out:
“Barney Frank is holding a 12-point lead, and in a tough election year for Democrats that’s a comfortable lead going into the final two weeks of the election,” Eyewitness News political analyst Joe Fleming said. “It all depends on if Sean Bielat can grab some momentum to close that gap.”…
Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans. “Barney’s got a real strong base there, and that’s really propelling him right now” in the heavily Democratic 4th, Fleming said.
Among independents, Bielat is beating Frank by 44 percent to 35 percent, with another 17 percent still undecided. But Bielat will need to win unaffiliated voters by a much bigger margin in order to defeat Frank, Fleming said…
WPRI has offered to host a prime-time debate between Frank and Bielat focused on issues of concern to voters in Bristol County, Mass. Both campaigns originally agreed in principle to participate, but Frank’s campaign later changed its mind, citing scheduling issues.
The killer demographic: As usual, it’s the gender gap. Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2. Unless he can put a giant dent in that in the next 12 days, I don’t know how he gets to 51 percent.
Here’s the new Bielat ad from Ladd “Dale Peterson” Ehlinger; Ace was in the studio while it was being filmed, but that’s not him playing Barney — or so he claims. The concept is cute, but I’m not sure how much it does to advance the ball, especially with women. The middle section, with dancing and Frank soundbites and text rushing by, is hard to keep track of.
Poll end date: January 13, 2010,
Poll result: Coakley(49) ahead of Brown(41) by 8.
Election date: Januray 19, 2010 (just 6 days later)
Election result: Coakley (47) lost to Brown(52) by 5 (the poll had Brown under-polled by 11, and Coakley over-polled by 2).
Poll end date: October 17, 2010,
Poll result: Frank(49) ahead of Bielat(37) by 12.
Election date: November 2, 2010 (16 days after the poll)
Possible Election result: Frank(47) loses to Bielat(48) by 1 (if this poll also has Bielat under-polled by 11, and Frank over-polled by 2).
The real question is if the GOP gets the majority, will Barney want to weather the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac investigations? Does he want his ex-lover called up to testify before a congressional committee? He may retire suddenly just because he doesn’t want to be a powerless back bencher.
There may be a special election before 2012.
But I am hopeful the Sean can pull it out. Remember the polls did not give Brown a shot either until the day before the election.
One reason Frank keeps getting reelected is because his congressional district is gerrymandered. See here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Massachusetts%27s_4th_congressional_district.gif
Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls. They all did the Barny Frank Fag hag thing.....
Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls. They all dig the Barny Frank Fag hag thing.....
He might, but generally midterm elections are high water marks for challengers to incumbents. In a Presidential election year, especially the way 2012 is shaping up, the dynamic is very different. This is the year the 'Pubs have to do well, because whoever doesn't win this time around will probably be looking at a much tougher environment in 2012.
The Massholes in Bawney's district just make this one of those places where an established and entrenched 'Rat like Fwank are that much harder to dig out. There are just places like that, where the 'Rat seemingly has the seat for life if they want it. MD is that way, too. Look how long that old hag Mikulski has been hanging around. She'll probably die in office, the old bat.
I really believe Sean wins. Brown won Barney’s district. There are lot more Bielat signs than Barney signs here in the heart of pinko commie land. I walked with Sean during the Portuguese Feast Parade and that’s a stronghold of Dems, the people were very receptive. Barney will be retired. Many people who aren’t hardcore dems are not voting for Barney. They may be seeing the light.
Read the poll sample FIRST and then you will discover why this looks so good for Frank:
Poll Sample (only 400 people):
DEMOCRAT: 42 %
REPUBLICAN: 16 %
INDEPENDENT: 40.3 %
53 % WOMEN
Analysis: This is a sampling of mainly Democrat female voters from Massachusetts. What do you expect.
Please stop posting polls unless there are at least 15+ over 2 months from multiple sources. Anything less is pretty useless and grossly misleading.
You are SOOOOOOO right about that - unfortunately. You can spot my Boston FB "friends" by the sheer lunacy they post - they all want to be the 4 slore-dogs on that show. I really don't get it.
barney’s taking money from the banks who got bailouts after he promised not too his opponent should be making that an issue!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2612546/posts
Great analysis, all the way around. With Sean, much will depend on if the Repubs get a majority in the House — and if they have the gonads to go after Fwank for his palpable malfeasance. The second, of course, is a massive if.
This is a tall order. It’s probably the best opportunity the GOP will have to beat Frank, ever.
don’t believe the polls
They want to be 4 gay men ?
They want to be the 4 trolls on SATC.
Let me summarize the 4 slores on SATC:
Kim Catrall was hot 30-35 years ago.
Kristin Davis is attractive, I’ll give her credit.
The dykey-looking one’s a dyke.
Sarah-Jessica-Coyote-Dog is a dog, even with the moles cut off her face.
So, 1 of the 4 is attractive, yet, some women hold them up as role models. Blah...
I lived in Newton for 22 years.
Frank losing is inconceivable.
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
“Please explain this to me”
OK. I lived there for 22 years. A very substantial number of those women hate men, hate masculinity, and hate Marines most of all.
There's not just one answer. There are the young single career girls in Boston who always vote for pro-abortion candidates. There are a lot of married liberal women in the wealthy suburbs. And then there are older women in the mill towns who would never vote for a Republican either, because of Social Security, the Great Depression, and ethnic tribalism: it's how they were brought up. Add them up and that's Barney's vote.
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